November 2019 Observations and Discussion

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Post by dkodgis on Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:52 pm

I like being made to stretch
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:14 pm

Had some showers earlier now it’s cloudy and cool. We’ll be in the 40s all weekend. Steadier rain expected on Sunday which is a bummer.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_38

Could be up to an inch of rain in some spots along the coast. We’re seeing this coastal storm kind of come out of nowhere the last day or so. The NAO is negative - a sharp ridge over Greenland pressing south - could be the root cause.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Gfs_z500a_namer_7



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Post by sroc4 on Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Had some showers earlier now it’s cloudy and cool. We’ll be in the 40s all weekend. Steadier rain expected on Sunday which is a bummer.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_38

Could be up to an inch of rain in some spots along the coast. We’re seeing this coastal storm kind of come out of nowhere the last day or so. The NAO is negative - a sharp ridge over Greenland pressing south - could be the root cause.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Gfs_z500a_namer_7



Its a damn shame that there isnt more cold air around.  While this track and LP position isnt the greatest for the coastal plain you would think that a deeping low in the 988mb range south of Martha's Vineyard would produce snows down into the lower HV at least.  Unfort that ridge out west is flooding the northern tear with Pac air.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_40

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
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Nov 12th = trace
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:51 pm

Steady 20 mph wind here tonight. Gusts up to 30.  I can hear the wind. It sounds like it is more than 20 mph. I think I just saw Doc and CP fly by.  I think it is cold enough to see some minimum icing as a coating tomorrow night up here. Nothing big but I bet there is some sleet too.

The next few days will go fast. Happy Thanksgiving to all.
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:34 am

dkodgis wrote:Steady 20 mph wind here tonight. Gusts up to 30.  I can hear the wind. It sounds like it is more than 20 mph. I think I just saw Doc and CP fly by.  I think it is cold enough to see some minimum icing as a coating tomorrow night up here. Nothing big but I bet there is some sleet too.

The next few days will go fast. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Damian, it sure was howling last night there for a while.Had to be gusting over 40.Your right, CP and I flew by.See 3:25 in this clip I posted !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQWSh7Db-_E
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Post by sroc4 on Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:49 am

docstox12 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Steady 20 mph wind here tonight. Gusts up to 30.  I can hear the wind. It sounds like it is more than 20 mph. I think I just saw Doc and CP fly by.  I think it is cold enough to see some minimum icing as a coating tomorrow night up here. Nothing big but I bet there is some sleet too.

The next few days will go fast. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Damian, it sure was howling last night there for a while.Had to be gusting over 40.Your right, CP and I flew by.See 3:25 in this clip I posted !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQWSh7Db-_E

Lol. You crack me up Doc! lol!

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 253b8c10



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Nov 23, 2019 6:56 am

docstox12 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Steady 20 mph wind here tonight. Gusts up to 30.  I can hear the wind. It sounds like it is more than 20 mph. I think I just saw Doc and CP fly by.  I think it is cold enough to see some minimum icing as a coating tomorrow night up here. Nothing big but I bet there is some sleet too.

The next few days will go fast. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Damian, it sure was howling last night there for a while.Had to be gusting over 40.Your right, CP and I flew by.See 3:25 in this clip I posted !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQWSh7Db-_E

That was a hilarious post!!! lol! lol!
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:01 am

currently 31* and wind is 0 on my meter..... I am glad that CP and Doc are not flying around down here.... boat is coming out of the water today...its been so windy this fall it has hindered us from using her as much...so now she will be tucked away until spring and I say....BRING ON WINTER!!
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:18 am

That’s what I saw alright. Mom, you had your boat in until the last moment for sure. Beautiful, sunny morning with no clouds. 28. I see it gets warmer right up to Thurs when the temps go do fast. When I say no clouds, it looks like an Arizona sky
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:37 pm

Heads up Ray - and anyone else - in NEPA toward Albany. Looks like rain could change to a burst of snow tomorrow. If it does let us know and post some pics for the peasants near the coast who won't see the white gold.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_22


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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:49 pm

Thanksgiving is looking blustery and cold.

A strong low pressure is expected to cut across the Midwest on Wednesday bringing us some rain. The good news is the front comes the day before Thanksgiving, the bad news is this system rapidly intensifies in Northern New England so once the winds turn to the N-NW you can expect rapidly declining temps and high winds.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_19

Models are showing 850mb winds between 60-70 mph. Some even a little higher. At the surface this could translate to sustained winds at 20-30 mph with gusts at times near 45 mph.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Thanksgiving is looking blustery and cold.

A strong low pressure is expected to cut across the Midwest on Wednesday bringing us some rain. The good news is the front comes the day before Thanksgiving, the bad news is this system rapidly intensifies in Northern New England so once the winds turn to the N-NW you can expect rapidly declining temps and high winds.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 Gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_19

Models are showing 850mb winds between 60-70 mph. Some even a little higher. At the surface this could translate to sustained winds at 20-30 mph with gusts at times near 45 mph.
will the winds be stronger in CT? I will be driving to parents. Heavily treed there so praying we don't lose power and no turkey day! That happened one year when I was a kid but it was just our house our msin circuit breaker blew was so upsetting for everyone. I know when you post about winds it's a real threat. Def issue for parade can't have those balloons.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:47 pm

I can confirm sleet in yonkers? How at 50 degrees I don't know but it's bouncing off my jacket.
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Post by Vinnydula on Sat Nov 23, 2019 8:52 pm

I got snow and sleet at 39
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:08 pm

Yep 45 and sleet my first frozen precip. Just getting home from the cross county Christmas tree lighting. I must be getting old cuz 50 felt like 20 and my feet were freezing.
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Post by frank 638 on Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:16 pm

No sleet or snow over here just a boring cold rain ☔ I want snow ❄ already

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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:11 pm

Had a sleet period in Hdale then a wet mix then cold rain.
2nd wintry precip of this year.
Woop woop.
Maybe some backend mood flakes and accumulations to the higher NW NJ terrain on cold surfaces.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:04 am

amugs wrote:Had a sleet period in Hdale then a wet mix then cold rain.
2nd wintry precip of this year.
Woop woop.
Maybe some backend mood flakes and accumulations to the higher NW NJ terrain on cold surfaces.


Shucks, I missed it! Was having a good ole time at Miller's Ale House.. I don't go out much on the weekends anymore, figures the one night I'm out I miss it...

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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:05 am

Some decent flakes coming down.  Can see the 850's starting to go below 0 925's a bit warmer but pretty close too.November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 5 850s11

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:53 pm

Just chilly cold dreary rainy day here, i thought it had stopped then it picked up again. Its a shame so many coastals and no cold air. Is this going to be the case all winter as recently usual?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:08 pm

I dunno Frank, the 850mb winds do not look that impressive on the back side of the system Thursday, and if they are overdone as usually are I can see gusts to 35 maybe 40mph, i know and this coming from the wind man. I do not see any shades higher than 55mph at 850s.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:30 pm

docstox12 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Steady 20 mph wind here tonight. Gusts up to 30.  I can hear the wind. It sounds like it is more than 20 mph. I think I just saw Doc and CP fly by.  I think it is cold enough to see some minimum icing as a coating tomorrow night up here. Nothing big but I bet there is some sleet too.

The next few days will go fast. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Damian, it sure was howling last night there for a while.Had to be gusting over 40.Your right, CP and I flew by.See 3:25 in this clip I posted !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQWSh7Db-_E

lol! lol! lol! Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up
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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:28 pm

Ick, a full day of cold rain, total of 1.37" since last night. We have the precip, now let's get that cold air in here!

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Post by hyde345 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:35 pm

Crappy day today. Heavy rain and upper 30's yuck. Right now 37 and partly cloudy.
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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:53 am

The winds for Turkey Day may ground the balloons.
Keep an eye on the Sunday/Monday time frame for possible frozen precip again N&W of the city. Very interesting set up for sure

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