November 2019 Observations and Discussion

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Post by Radz on Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:45 am

21.2° this morning, thought i'd be lower- not as cold as Saturday morning's 19.4°...
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:52 am

Radz wrote:21.2° this morning, thought i'd be lower- not as cold as Saturday morning's 19.4°...

Same here.

16.2° Saturday morning the 9th, and 17.0° this morning. Not quite as bad (or good depending on how you view things) as originally advertised.
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Post by frank 638 on Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:56 am

Morning low of 22*so cold

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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:37 am

19.6* in Hillsdale

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 EJQQJ27UwAEdRfG?format=jpg&name=small

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:54 am

21* this morning in Hazlet....dogs moved fast to complete their business this morning!! Very Happy
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:05 am

Add another record this morning for NYC, Central Park to be exact. They hit 23 breaking the old record of 24 for the date.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:31 am

19 for me this morning. Not too shabby for November. Have to have patience for the white gold though. Missed out on any accumulations yesterday.

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Post by Radz on Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:16 am

18.1° this morning's low...
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:27 am

24* low this morning
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Post by amugs on Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:51 pm

20* for me.

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Post by rb924119 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:25 am

IF the ICON evolution is right at H5 for early next week, that’s a SECS north and west of I-95. I’ve seen this setup before, and it’s a very sneaky setup for models to try to pick up on. You get such a potent shortwave tilting that negative with cold air around, you backbuild the precip shield for several hours before it moves out, and you quickly attain dendritic growth with such strong ascent on the heels of low-level cold advection (this could also lead to enhanced banding via CSI, though I’d really need to dig in to confirm this). Additionally, with the low-levels likely between 0 and -5°C, you would have aggregate flakes. Gotta see what other modeling does with that vort, so far the NAM is nowhere near as enthused. I’d also like a chance to try to analyze this event more but I’m probably not gonna get it 😔 just know that if the 00z ICON is right, this is a SECS north and west of I-95. I’ll post more if I can.

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Post by rb924119 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:26 am

EURO followed ICON, GFS and GEM are somewhere in the middle for early next week lol The pattern through Day 15 continues to excite me, I won’t even lie. Watching a potential threat period 22nd-25th, though I am not ready to sound the alarm yet for lack time to sit down and analyze deeply.

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Post by rb924119 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:27 am

UKMET for early next week looks like EURO/ICON. Warm verbatim, but I don’t think it would end up that way.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:04 am

rb924119 wrote:EURO followed ICON, GFS and GEM are somewhere in the middle for early next week lol The pattern through Day 15 continues to excite me, I won’t even lie. Watching a potential threat period 22nd-25th, though I am not ready to sound the alarm yet for lack time to sit down and analyze deeply.
Thanks for posting it's been so boring! Need some type of hope😁
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Post by Radz on Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:09 am

29.3°, wind chill 19° ... Coastal storms and below normal temps, i hope the theme continues for the next few months, odds are timing will be right at some point...
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Post by billg315 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:54 pm

Looks like this coastal storm will have some significant impacts along the Jersey Shore with 50 mph gusts and coastal flooding tomorrow.
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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:01 pm

Put at PSU , Penn State, 18-21 wind chill all day here. Brrrr. Watched the game and tailgat2d before and after, lots of hot cocoa and homemade baileys!!!
Coastal sneaking up and ice amount in NW NJ are .10 to .20.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by rb924119 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:21 pm

18z EURO WITH MY SECS TO START NEXT WEEK!!! LETS GOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

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Post by rb924119 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:24 pm

Joins the rest of the 18z suite and the UK. Now, let’s repeat this at 00z.

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Post by billg315 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:48 pm

amugs wrote:Put at PSU , Penn State, 18-21 wind chill all day here.  Brrrr. Watched the game and tailgat2d before and after, lots of hot cocoa and homemade baileys!!!
Coastal sneaking up and ice amount in NW NJ are .10 to .20.

Good win today. Closer than I hoped but still a W which is a nice bounceback from last week.
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Post by dsix85 on Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:30 am

Currently snow flurries in Manorville, Long Island

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:39 am

dsix85 wrote:Currently snow flurries in Manorville, Long Island

Same here. Long Islnd Sound effects snow at its finest.

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 20ecb110

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Nov 12th = trace
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Post by dsix85 on Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:08 am

Love when we take advantage of that small body of water to our north!

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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:58 pm

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Image.png.3c4a4d7a37bba9191e59260d459c2985

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.9b52cd5267940f553ba6d2898f599963

November 2019 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.bf86c8b769136c180733eb0318f69a54

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:00 pm

WWUS41 KOKX 172112
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

NJZ002-NYZ067-180915-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WW.Y.0012.191118T0800Z-191118T1500Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-
412 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a
light glaze.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York,
Orange County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are
possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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