November 2019 Observations and Discussion

21.2° this morning, thought i'd be lower- not as cold as Saturday morning's 19.4°...

@Radz wrote:21.2° this morning, thought i'd be lower- not as cold as Saturday morning's 19.4°...

Same here.

16.2° Saturday morning the 9th, and 17.0° this morning. Not quite as bad (or good depending on how you view things) as originally advertised.

Morning low of 22*so cold

19.6* in Hillsdale

21* this morning in Hazlet....dogs moved fast to complete their business this morning!!

Add another record this morning for NYC, Central Park to be exact. They hit 23 breaking the old record of 24 for the date.

19 for me this morning. Not too shabby for November. Have to have patience for the white gold though. Missed out on any accumulations yesterday.

18.1° this morning's low...

24* low this morning

20* for me.

IF the ICON evolution is right at H5 for early next week, that’s a SECS north and west of I-95. I’ve seen this setup before, and it’s a very sneaky setup for models to try to pick up on. You get such a potent shortwave tilting that negative with cold air around, you backbuild the precip shield for several hours before it moves out, and you quickly attain dendritic growth with such strong ascent on the heels of low-level cold advection (this could also lead to enhanced banding via CSI, though I’d really need to dig in to confirm this). Additionally, with the low-levels likely between 0 and -5°C, you would have aggregate flakes. Gotta see what other modeling does with that vort, so far the NAM is nowhere near as enthused. I’d also like a chance to try to analyze this event more but I’m probably not gonna get it just know that if the 00z ICON is right, this is a SECS north and west of I-95. I’ll post more if I can.

EURO followed ICON, GFS and GEM are somewhere in the middle for early next week lol The pattern through Day 15 continues to excite me, I won’t even lie. Watching a potential threat period 22nd-25th, though I am not ready to sound the alarm yet for lack time to sit down and analyze deeply.

UKMET for early next week looks like EURO/ICON. Warm verbatim, but I don’t think it would end up that way.

@rb924119 wrote:EURO followed ICON, GFS and GEM are somewhere in the middle for early next week lol The pattern through Day 15 continues to excite me, I won’t even lie. Watching a potential threat period 22nd-25th, though I am not ready to sound the alarm yet for lack time to sit down and analyze deeply.

Thanks for posting it's been so boring! Need some type of hope

29.3°, wind chill 19° ... Coastal storms and below normal temps, i hope the theme continues for the next few months, odds are timing will be right at some point...

Looks like this coastal storm will have some significant impacts along the Jersey Shore with 50 mph gusts and coastal flooding tomorrow.

Put at PSU , Penn State, 18-21 wind chill all day here. Brrrr. Watched the game and tailgat2d before and after, lots of hot cocoa and homemade baileys!!!
Coastal sneaking up and ice amount in NW NJ are .10 to .20.

18z EURO WITH MY SECS TO START NEXT WEEK!!! LETS GOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Joins the rest of the 18z suite and the UK. Now, let’s repeat this at 00z.

@amugs wrote:Put at PSU , Penn State, 18-21 wind chill all day here.  Brrrr. Watched the game and tailgat2d before and after, lots of hot cocoa and homemade baileys!!!
Coastal sneaking up and ice amount in NW NJ are .10 to .20.

Good win today. Closer than I hoped but still a W which is a nice bounceback from last week.

Currently snow flurries in Manorville, Long Island

@dsix85 wrote:Currently snow flurries in Manorville, Long Island

Same here. Long Islnd Sound effects snow at its finest.

Love when we take advantage of that small body of water to our north!

WWUS41 KOKX 172112
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

NJZ002-NYZ067-180915-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WW.Y.0012.191118T0800Z-191118T1500Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-
412 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of a
light glaze.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York,
Orange County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are
possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.