My Winter Outlook 2019-2020

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My Winter Outlook 2019-2020 Empty My Winter Outlook 2019-2020

Post by Isotherm on Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:48 pm

Comments and/or inquiries are appreciated!



My winter outlook for the ensuing, 2019-2020 season can be viewed here:



http://www.lightinthestorm.com/
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:09 pm

Thank you Tom for this detailed forecast.I'm right on the near normal to below normal line in the LHV.Looks like an above normal temperature winter and Feb-Mar snow scenario.We get about 50 in my area, so am looking for 40 to 50 inches up by me.
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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:49 pm

Good work and need a dictionary to interpret.
From your forecast lools.like NOAA will be right with there call.
Nothing personal but the weeie in me hopes you bust bigly and we have 48" of snow and deep freeze cold that rivals 14-15.


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Irish on Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:21 pm

That dude was certainly not speaking English!

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:25 pm

Fantastic write up Tom. You really have a talent. Are you forecasting professionally anywhere?

Good luck with your call.

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:31 pm

Good write up Tom. Your forecast sounds a lot like a redux of last winter. I'm a bit surprised with your line of thinking mainly because of the general optimism that I've read and heard with the upcoming season. Only time will tell.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:36 pm

Great write up Tom. You have a great track record, but the snow weenie in me hopes you're wrong! I am going to go through it again when my mind is clearer and see where you differ from the majority of what I've been seeing. Here's to tracking whatever comes our way!

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      25.10"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Post by Isotherm on Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:01 pm

Thanks all for the comments. And Frank, much thanks for the kind words; as to your question -- I am not forecasting professionally anywhere. Meteorology remains a passion/hobby for me.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:04 pm

Isotherm wrote:Thanks all for the comments. And Frank, much thanks for the kind words; as to your question -- I am not forecasting professionally anywhere. Meteorology remains a passion/hobby for me.

I'm sure you read other outlooks regarding the upcoming winter season. It seems many are optimistic about seeing colder than normal weather. In your opinion what's the biggest difference between your outlook and almost everyone else?

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2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

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Post by frank 638 on Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:37 pm

Hey Tom excellent write up i just hope we get more snow because I am tired of having a mild winters .

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Post by Wheezer on Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:05 pm

Thank you Tom, not so much for the results of your forecast, but having an objective mind . Every year it seems we have one or two of the big dog forecasters put their spin on winter and everyone else bows down and follows with the same worn out reasons. In reading yours, you mention things that are not talked about in others forecast. Thanks again

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Post by HectorO on Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:39 pm

The first forecast I've seen so far with below normal snowfall and above normal temps. What are you seeing different, than the others? Sorry if you explained it already. I'm reading this on a phone.
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Post by Isotherm on Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:38 pm

Thanks all. Re: what is different; that is a difficult question to answer. I'm not sure exactly what others utilize for their methods, but I do know that some of the points / areas I discussed were not mentioned by any other forecast, specifically the atmospheric angular momentum regime. I have also researched quite heavily into the NAO mode, as described in the outlook, believe I have developed a very useful prognostication technique for that modality.
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