December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:00 pm

until all NWS stations have done so hours before.

AND the GOOFUS FIBNALLY CAVES !!! Madonne this model can be so stubborn at times even with its new platform! For weenie eye candy
December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 CD55FAD9-87A4-4245-96A2-A65624CDE580.thumb.png.dbb5c5599e53954860793f9c7df279f0[/quote]

Thanks Mugs..hope you had a great holiday with your family??!! and that eye candy needs to come a little further south Wink Wink
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:04 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:So I just listened to a webcast with meteorologist Joe Cioffi (formerly of Fios and pix11) and Bill Goodman (from NWS Upton). Bill mentioned that it is a holiday weekend at Upton and he's not sure when the decisions will be made to put out advisories or warnings. Sounds like they may be late in coming, not that they post them early enough anyway....

Call up these two warmicists and tell them to get on teh snow and storm train - they are being literally deceptive to teh public whom they are to warn at this time frame. I was just buying a tree the town over from me and I said I have to get my kids back to school tomorrow - Penn State adn Quinnipiac and he says why? I said the storm and he says what storm there has been no mention of it for here. He said how bad - and I said like 6" plus and he was like GTHO!!! Nooooo can't be - MOMMA MIA peps are just left out in teh dark.

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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:07 pm

SR models are in RGEM just crushes us - remember this is in MM so you have to convert to inches.

20mm = .79 " of LE = .......................7-9" of snow!!

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 SN_000-084_0000


Last edited by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:08 pm

With a trough orientation like this, I'm not buying expansive area of heavy snow.  This as depicted would be a very unimpressive event for most.  

I'm not sipping the drink on this ATTM.  Model could very well be wrong at 3 days out, but my doubt is rather high.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 Gfslow18

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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:17 pm

heehaw453 wrote:With a trough orientation like this, I'm not buying expansive area of heavy snow.  This as depicted would be a very unimpressive event for most.  

I'm not sipping the drink on this ATTM.  Model could very well be wrong at 3 days out, but my doubt is rather high.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 Gfslow18

The GFS has struggled with this set up so I am very cautious to use what it is saying ATM. It has finally come around with its temp profiles overall and ULL location (not depiction) to the rest of the models. Also it is the HH run as usual for this model and teh snow outputs and precip outputs are wonky, eradict.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:19 pm

Folks, not to put a damper on things but don't forget most if not all these totals include sleet, which it seems many areas will see.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      4.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by algae888 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:27 pm

This is a very tricky forecast the first part come Sunday morning into early afternoon when we can pick up 1 to 4 in of snow south to North before it changes to sleet freezing rain and then rain may never get to plane rain in land. Then they'll kind of be a lull Sunday evening through Monday morning before the coastal takes over. The key is going to be where h5 and H7 close off how strong it gets and how fast it moves we want it south of us but models will not have a handle on this until probably Sunday morning. Wherever this sets up the CCB could be impressive and dropped a lot of snow even down to the coast if the setup is right. I would not trust the GFS or CMC with the second part of this storm have to wait for hi res models to get in their range which again would probably be 12z Sunday
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:29 pm

heehaw453 wrote:With a trough orientation like this, I'm not buying expansive area of heavy snow.  This as depicted would be a very unimpressive event for most.  

I'm not sipping the drink on this ATTM.  Model could very well be wrong at 3 days out, but my doubt is rather high.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 Gfslow18

ALL global models Euro, Ukie, CMC, GFS, are indicating a fairly wide area of heavy snows 50 miles N and W of of NYC. Meso's like RGEM are also and Nam to lesser extent. It's happening. There is still a big question as to what happens in NYC metro but some places away from city such as Catskills will get buried.
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:38 pm

Amazing Allendale,NJ and saddle river NJ are I mean 4 miles by crows flight SR is from my house and they are under a WSW for 5-8" of white gold adn .1-.2" of ice accretion and I am here with NADA and Pearl River is teh same and they have the same warning - amazing

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:39 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Folks, not to put a damper on things but don't forget most if not all these totals include sleet, which it seems many areas will see.
Not the RGEM or MAXRES maps they do not include sleet or ZR

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:46 pm

I hope we see a lot of snow. Vinny 6 to 12? Not here. Of course Upton left out southern wc.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:49 pm

Nvm Vinny wow 8 to 12 but north of there has less? Well where I work in white plains is northern wc. I just hope 18 miles doesn't mean nothing versus 8 to 12. Nws has not changed the hwo for southern wc. Since it started.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:56 pm

amugs wrote:Amazing Allendale,NJ and saddle river NJ are I mean 4 miles by crows flight SR is from my house and they are under a WSW for 5-8" of white gold adn .1-.2" of ice accretion and I am here with NADA and Pearl River is teh same and they have the same warning - amazing

That's our black hole mugs, we may need to down a few beverages at Finnegan's or Cornerstone if that happens!

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      4.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:57 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:Amazing Allendale,NJ and saddle river NJ are I mean 4 miles by crows flight SR is from my house and they are under a WSW for 5-8" of white gold adn .1-.2" of ice accretion and I am here with NADA and Pearl River is teh same and they have the same warning - amazing

That's our black hole mugs, we may need to down a few beverages at Finnegan's or Cornerstone if that happens!

Hell ya Zoo!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:11 pm

hyde345 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:With a trough orientation like this, I'm not buying expansive area of heavy snow.  This as depicted would be a very unimpressive event for most.  

I'm not sipping the drink on this ATTM.  Model could very well be wrong at 3 days out, but my doubt is rather high.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 Gfslow18

ALL global models Euro, Ukie, CMC, GFS, are indicating a fairly wide area of heavy snows 50 miles N and W of of NYC. Meso's like RGEM are also and Nam to lesser extent. It's happening. There is still a big question as to what happens in NYC metro but some places away from city such as Catskills will get buried.

The snow projections the models are throwing out there from Albany to Red Sox Suck I'm skeptical of too.  The Euro widespread 16-22" amounts seem high.  I think widespread 10-12" totals sound like a good start in that zone which IMO is impressive.  Widespread bigger totals would require the storm to stall out and track the right way to setup deformation bands across a very wide area. We don't have arctic air in place with this storm to boot.

When forecasting a miller B like this it usually favors the higher latitudes (e.g., NE) and this storm is no exception.  That said HV on north has a much higher chance of big snow which to me is at least 6".  Anything below route 80 the bust potential is extremely high with this.  Just the wrong track, speed or intensification and all bets are off.

I'm hoping it over performs for all.

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:29 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:With a trough orientation like this, I'm not buying expansive area of heavy snow.  This as depicted would be a very unimpressive event for most.  

I'm not sipping the drink on this ATTM.  Model could very well be wrong at 3 days out, but my doubt is rather high.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 Gfslow18

ALL global models Euro, Ukie, CMC, GFS, are indicating a fairly wide area of heavy snows 50 miles N and W of of NYC. Meso's like RGEM are also and Nam to lesser extent. It's happening. There is still a big question as to what happens in NYC metro but some places away from city such as Catskills will get buried.

The snow projections the models are throwing out there from Albany to Red Sox Suck I'm skeptical of too.  The Euro widespread 16-22" amounts seem high.  I think widespread 10-12" totals sound like a good start in that zone which IMO is impressive.  Widespread bigger totals would require the storm to stall out and track the right way to setup deformation bands across a very wide area. We don't have arctic air in place with this storm to boot.

When forecasting a miller B like this it usually favors the higher latitudes (e.g., NE) and this storm is no exception.  That said HV on north has a much higher chance of big snow which to me is at least 6".  Anything below route 80 the bust potential is extremely high with this.  Just the wrong track, speed or intensification and all bets are off.

I'm hoping it over performs for all.

You are correct that anything south of I80 has bust potential. My point is the area that will likely see heavy snows of 10+ will be large from NE Penn across Catskills-Hudson Valley-New England and I also think some spots will report as high as 18. We have plenty of cold air in place in these areas to produce big snows. It doesn't have to be arctic in origin. South of these areas has always been a question mark and it really depends on the exact track and evolution of secondary that occurs on Monday.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Nov 29, 2019 6:53 pm

Piggybacking on my last post—Upton’s first stab...

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 5d1bbd10
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:03 pm

Anyone have a take on how much ice and when?
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Post by HectorO on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:09 pm

Damn, I'm 2 feet away from West Milford in Bloomingdale. This area gets a good amount for a lot of storms.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:15 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Piggybacking on my last post—Upton’s first stab...

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hopefully those numbers go up for us but the other direction is possible too where we get little to nothing.
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:18 pm

dkodgis wrote:Anyone have a take on how much ice and when?

There may be more sleet than freezing rain which is good. NWS took ZR out of my forecast completely. Mixing most likely will occur Sunday afternoon and evening. If there is ZR it shouldn't be more than 1/10 of an inch I would think.
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Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:35 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Piggybacking on my last post—Upton’s first stab...

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 5d1bbd10

That puts me in the 8 to 12 area but this event has a lot of moving parts so I will be happy with 2 to 4 and be VERY happy with anything more than that.
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Post by kaos00723 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:51 pm

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 6u9nhVK

A screenshot of Bernie Rayno's snow map from his video.

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:56 pm

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 6 22d08f11
Looks like the 18Z Euro came in snowier/colder!
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Post by Irish on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:06 pm

That map actually has me, in Old Bridge, with less snow, but I've come to expect that. However, this early in the season, any snow, could be a positive sign of things to come.

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