December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

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Post by snowday111 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:10 pm

Scott  - Do you think they may call school just so we don't get stuck there for hours with kids like last Novenber? The timing makes it a very tricky call!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:13 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 22d08f11
Looks like the 18Z Euro came in snowier/colder!

Yeah I question that. If anything it cut down many arear an inch or two. Negligible though, and it will change again. At least a couple of times before the event..
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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:46 pm

00z Nam has practically no rain for my area, but more icing Sunday with almost all rain for LI. Monday gives me 7-8" of sleet and snow, LI gets the shaft...

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:53 pm

this is the view I'd love to see with the ULL when it hits the coast and trough orientation. Great latitude too.  This would cause deformation zones and cold conveyor belt.  Can only hope.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 Nam50012

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:58 pm

Area just got Named, lol.


December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 Snku_a10
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:31 pm

hyde345 wrote:Area just got Named, lol.


December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 Snku_a10
One could only dream..I believe the whole board would be in HEAVEN
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:34 pm

GFS 500.mb evolution as I said earlier struggles with these set up but the synoptics are there for a big storm NNJ North. BUT it has come around to the EURO and NAM 500 mb evolutions. 6-10" swath for most of NNJ I 80 N and up through LHV.
The CAD signature is there and well see the models tick colder. One thing is for sure. This is a loooonnggg duration storm that will run or last through early am Tuesday.
Even Janice Huff said we may have to uo these totals we are posting from I78/80 North ,they had 5-8".

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:09 am

So mugs coast is looking at nothing really then? The models show 6 plus even into southern wc but ur saying northern is only 5 to 8 so I assume u guys are cutting these totals way down. And if it's that long a storm for 5 to 8 that won't cause much issues at all that's very light snow.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:18 am

My bad mugs my highway geography isn't great I see i80 runs across nj to just south of Bronx so this snow totals would include lower and upper Westchester am I correct? Are you think in a foot is possible? Maybe even for southern Westchester or are we too close to the dividing line?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:18 am

Not a good trend for the coast last night but there's still time and the final solution will still vary IMO for better or worse.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 C806e110
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Post by Irish on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:26 am

Yup CP, temps are staying too high, we barely get an inch.

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Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:29 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not a good trend for the coast last night but there's still time and the final solution will still vary IMO for better or worse.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 C806e110

Don't like these sharp cut offs at all.Anyway, it's the typical look of a late November-early December or mid March winter storm up here CP.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:32 am

Sorry guys, i'm just not seeing a lot to be excited about if this is close to reality as shown in latest NAM.  The ULL is too north and the trough is too positive.  Storm also seems less robust and consolidated as it moves off the coast that was ostensible on 0Z Euro and even NAM.  

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 Nam25010

Now of course because i believe under perform, it will over perform.  Hopefully models do one final dance as we approach game time.

Upton's numbers are bullish IMO.  

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 Upton10

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:41 am

It has been really cold at night here in NENJ, I'm really concerned about extended icing from freezing rain. Networks don't seem too concerned, have no mention, just "mixed precip" comments. Mad

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      4.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:42 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not a good trend for the coast last night but there's still time and the final solution will still vary IMO for better or worse.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 C806e110

Don't like these sharp cut offs at all.Anyway, it's the typical look of a late November-early December or mid March winter storm up here CP.

Doc for us right now in Orange I'd be disappointed with anything less than 5, satisfied with 6-8 and very happy with the 8-12 the NWS is now calling for. Like Heehaw I feel they are being overly bullish with their numbers. Which is odd for them as they usually start low and move higher as the event progresses.
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:46 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Not a good trend for the coast last night but there's still time and the final solution will still vary IMO for better or worse.

December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 C806e110

Don't like these sharp cut offs at all.Anyway, it's the typical look of a late November-early December or mid March winter storm up here CP.

Doc for us right now in Orange I'd be disappointed with anything less than 5, satisfied with 6-8 and very happy with the 8-12 the NWS is now calling for. Like Heehaw I feel they are being overly bullish with their numbers. Which is odd for them as they usually start low and move higher as the event progresses.

Sounds like a plan CP.Whatever we get will hang around a while, looking cold for the next week.Would be nice to see snowpack to get the Christmas Spirits up and running! Anyway, it will be fun the next few days watching it all develop.
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Post by billg315 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:17 am

Overnight trends were not good. The modeling of the initial overrunning event has been pretty consistent with snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the area Sunday before a chance to rain. But the big snow totals were to come from Monday’s part - the wraparound behind the developing low. Now the models show that storm not organizing as quickly so the precipitation behind it is more ragged and light, and more warm air to the south meaning a change back to mix or rain. If that holds, most people south of I-80 are lucky to get 1-3” and even areas north of there might only be looking at a 3-6” type storm with New England getting the bigger totals.

All of that said, it is only a couple model runs and we still have 36 hours to go. So let’s see how today unfolds.
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Post by Artechmetals on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:21 am

Don’t we know by now it’s like a hockey game ? One period your team is up the next period they are tied . 3 rd period they end up losing the game . Past few years this is what it feels like on this board . Hope we can win this time thou
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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:43 am

Gooda mornin my NJ Strong WX famalia.
Okay so we've had a 20 mile wobble in the model output - its to be expected. Ben Noll whom I follow for my Northern Brethren has this to say

Hudson Valley call from Met Ben Noll
🗣️ #HudsonValley winter storm update!

• Begins 9:00-11:00 am Sunday.

• Sunday: 2-4 inches of snow/sleet, glaze of ice.

• Sunday night: icy mix changing back to snow, 1-3 inches.

• Monday: 4-8 inches of snow, could be heavy.

• Monday night: snow gradually ends.

EPS and most models are showing I 80 N is a SECS and above I 84N its a MECS
Albany capitol region going to get slammed.
The 700mb and 500 mb LP centers are stacked - when this happens crazy things occur below them and surprise surprise from my research and experiences.
Ice Storm warnings should be put up for areas in PA from the looks of things
Zoo I concur that they are underestimating the ice potential here in NE NJ and even NW NJ. This mix stuff is worse than straight snow at times.
December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 5de267f757fb1

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:47 am

Did any 9f you see the 3k nam? It's nuts it lays down 10 inches and is still snowing hard with the edge of snow near Canada!! I think extrapolated out even just inland from coast could see double digits from that run. Don't lose hope coasties or just inland like southern Westchester I think this will end up being the goods. Shoot 4 to 6 in December? I'll be happy but st tells me it could be more. Nws still hadn't issued anything for southern Upton though.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:50 am

amugs wrote:Gooda mornin my NJ Strong WX famalia.
Okay so we've had a 20 mile wobble in the model output - its to be expected. Ben Noll whom I follow for my Northern Brethren has this to say

Hudson Valley call from Met Ben Noll
🗣️ #HudsonValley winter storm update!

• Begins 9:00-11:00 am Sunday.

• Sunday: 2-4 inches of snow/sleet, glaze of ice.

• Sunday night: icy mix changing back to snow, 1-3 inches.

• Monday: 4-8 inches of snow, could be heavy.

• Monday night: snow gradually ends.

EPS and most models are showing I 80 N is a SECS and above I 84N its a MECS
Albany capitol region going to get slammed.
The 700mb and 500 mb LP centers are stacked - when this happens crazy things occur below them and surprise surprise from my research and experiences.
Ice Storm warnings should be put up for areas in PA from the looks of things
Zoo I concur that they are underestimating the ice potential here in NE NJ and even NW NJ. This mix stuff is worse than straight snow at times.
December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 5de267f757fb1
now that euro run stinks even for me which wasn't previously . I hope this isn't a trend. Mugs wasn't it stated the ice would be mostly sleet? Is that st I should worry bout here?
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Post by Radz on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:51 am

Joe Cioffi’s call atm, and he’s usually conservative December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 A4f89f10
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:52 am

There is a ice storm warning for parts of southern PA for .25 to .5 omg...
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:54 am

Radz wrote:Joe Cioffi’s call atm, and he’s usually conservative December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 A4f89f10
that orange line literally runs between the two parts of yonkers. I'd be very surprised if the northern half of yonkers sees 6 to 12 and 5 miles south by me sees 4 to 6.
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Post by Radz on Sat Nov 30, 2019 8:56 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Radz wrote:Joe Cioffi’s call atm, and he’s usually conservative December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 7 A4f89f10
that orange line literally runs between the two parts of yonkers. I'd be very surprised if the northern half of yonkers sees 6 to 12 and 5 miles south by me sees 4 to 6.

i would assume lower amounts in each zone south and higher each zone north, at that line about 6"
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