December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential

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Post by billg315 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:40 am

dsix85 wrote:Is this an overrunning or two part event with the first wave coming through Sunday and then the storm developing off the coast and that’s the main piece of energy that will drive the precip totals? Do we anticipate this to undergo bombogenesis?

I would describe this as more of a two-part event with the overrunning of the warm air streaming north ahead of the system causing the snow to break out Sunday before turning to sleet and rain; followed by a lull as the storm redevelops/strengthens off the coast; with a second wave of mostly snow developing on the backside Monday.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:47 am

12z NAM coming in hot for Monday, very slow moving snow event, going to be interesting!

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:49 am

jmanley32 wrote:Holy euro...it doesn't really change to rain as much coasties even see a few inches and just 20 miles inland up to 8 to 12. Doc and those well north see Godzilla totals. Need this just a tad south of 00z and everyone sees one heck of a Dec snowstorm which we haven't seen in a long time.

Jman, I'm pulling for that all the way so we all get in on the goods here.NWS still has a slop fest for part one up here, 2 to 6 inches, then the snow event on Monday.Lot's of moving parts to come together.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:49 am

Beat me to it Janet. 12z NAM has a good dumping of snow with the second part of the storm all day Monday with 6-plus inches for just about everyone on the forum.
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:52 am

dsix85 wrote:Is this an overrunning or two part event with the first wave coming through Sunday and then the storm developing off the coast and that’s the main piece of energy that will drive the precip totals? Do we anticipate this to undergo bombogenesis?
It is a 2 part storm with the initial front end overrunning that as depicted by the NAM and even a touch by the EURO shows snows to heavy icing N& W of NYC and then once the transfer to the coastal takes over and cranks we get a huge CCB (cold conveyor belt) of snow crush job for these same areas.
He has pointed it out very well in his 500mb post 2 up that once this cranks off tjis coast it will deepen rapidly maybe not to bombgensis but it will bring the goods.
NAM showing what could be a major ice to snow event for the NNJ,LIand S CT as well as the HV regions. More ice initially at the onset for the NNJ, EP, HV regions as a mid level warm area is locked in.
Great dynamic s setting up and synoptivmcally this is what the surface should be showing from this set up IMO.
Still cranking at hour 84 which is 2pmish Monday?
For your weenies eyes.
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Post by aiannone on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:54 am

Love it
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:54 am

Extrapolated out NAM would be about 10-18" of white gold for NYC and 12" plus N&W.
NAMMMEDDDD!!!

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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:58 am

The initial is the appetizer, sleet and ice are best for stickage of the 3 course entree that follows, like an Italain Thanksgiving or Xmass dinner, very long duration and LOTS of great foods!

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:02 am

amugs wrote:Extrapolated out NAM would be about 10-18" of white gold for NYC and 12" plus N&W.
NAMMMEDDDD!!!
For real?!! Jeeze I am not ready for this lol, do you think I should leave from CT back to NY tomorrow night rather than sunday If its going to be a icing event? So can we say theres a good chance no school Monday? Maybe NYC will have but like yonkers, white plains etc? How do you figure out the totals extrapolated out, now my question is will that CCB band have that dreaded subsidance or whatever its called keeping it from going west too far?
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Post by billg315 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:03 am

Timing Monday becomes critical now. If the snow doesn’t crank up until after 8 am, many schools and businesses may (mistakenly) open up - and if they do . . . it will NOT be a fun trip home for people in heavy afternoon/evening snow.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:06 am

aiannone wrote:Love it
December 1st-3rd 2019 Winter Storm Potential - Page 4 4c443a10
I see the time stamp there, does this mean that potentially this could effect schools Monday and Tuesday?! that would be supurb, my school has no cap on snow days : )
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:07 am

billg315 wrote:Timing Monday becomes critical now. If the snow doesn’t crank up until after 8 am, many schools and businesses may (mistakenly) open up - and if they do . . . it will NOT be a fun trip home for people in heavy afternoon/evening snow.
I work with kids with disabilities, the school will not take any chances if its progged to snow. Not a public school.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:10 am

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Timing Monday becomes critical now. If the snow doesn’t crank up until after 8 am, many schools and businesses may (mistakenly) open up - and if they do . . . it will NOT be a fun trip home for people in heavy afternoon/evening snow.
I work with kids with disabilities, the school will not take any chances if its progged to snow. Not a public school.

I imagine if the forecast holds many schools/workplaces may pre-emptively close; but sometimes if it doesn’t look bad in the early morning they think they can sneak in a half day. That’s when you end up with people having 3-4 hour commutes home.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:17 am

These accumulations will vary north south east and west over the next 48 hours so for now they're just for fun as far as who gets what, and where but pretty certain now at least that most will have some form of accumulating snow Sunday through Monday evening at some point.

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:25 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:These accumulations will vary north south east and west over the next 48 hours so for now they're just for fun as far as who gets what, and where but pretty certain now at least that most will have some form of accumulating snow Sunday through Monday evening at some point.

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Well said.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:Extrapolated out NAM would be about 10-18" of white gold for NYC and 12" plus N&W.
NAMMMEDDDD!!!
For real?!! Jeeze I am not ready for this lol, do you think I should leave from CT back to NY tomorrow night rather than sunday If its going to be a icing event?  So can we say theres a good chance no school Monday? Maybe NYC will have but like yonkers, white plains etc? How do you figure out the totals extrapolated out, now my question is will that CCB band have that dreaded subsidance or whatever its called keeping it from going west too far?

Jman, timing for Sunday is morning, if you leave by 8 am Sunday, you should beat it. If you are not a morning person (like me), head back Saturday night.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      4.5"

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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:59 am

heehaw453 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:These accumulations will vary north south east and west over the next 48 hours so for now they're just for fun as far as who gets what, and where but pretty certain now at least that most will have some form of accumulating snow Sunday through Monday evening at some point.

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Well said.
and like mugs said it's still snowing hard at 84 hrs these are not even the totals!
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Post by aiannone on Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:22 am

12z CMC dumps on the backend for the coast
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Post by docstox12 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:58 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:These accumulations will vary north south east and west over the next 48 hours so for now they're just for fun as far as who gets what, and where but pretty certain now at least that most will have some form of accumulating snow Sunday through Monday evening at some point.

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A wise Stat Man from the Hudson Valley once said on this site..."as December goes, so goes the winter"! Let it be written...let it be DONE!!!
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:18 pm

aiannone wrote:12z CMC dumps on the backend for the coast
nice all the models are coming into some sort of agreement.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 12:29 pm

My gosh it's still snowing on Tuesday on cmc!!!
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Post by aiannone on Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:08 pm

I’m hearing euro is a little warmer than it’s other runs. Can’t confirm right now though.
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:10 pm

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Holy euro...it doesn't really change to rain as much coasties even see a few inches and just 20 miles inland up to 8 to 12. Doc and those well north see Godzilla totals. Need this just a tad south of 00z and everyone sees one heck of a Dec snowstorm which we haven't seen in a long time.

Jman, I'm pulling for that all the way so we all get in on the goods here.NWS still has a slop fest for part one up here, 2 to 6 inches, then the snow event on Monday.Lot's of moving parts to come together.

At least NWS by you is throwing out some numbers already. NWS Albany waits until 12 hours before start time to put out any numbers. I know this one has a complicated thermal profile but still. N and W of city will do well with this one but there will probably be mixing Sunday night(unless you are way N and W) with warming aloft and lull in precip intensity. Monday could be fun. I'm 75 miles north of NYC and I'm expecting 6-10 when all is said and done by Monday night.
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Post by Artechmetals on Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:13 pm

No input from Frank ?
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:27 pm

Lots to digest over the last 24 hours. I’ll put together a first call snow map and small write up either late tonight or tomorrow morning. Many are in line for their first accumulating snow of this Meteorological Winter. There will also be some concern of ice accretion in parts of NNJ.

Latest EURO

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