December 1st-2nd Winter Storm

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:20 pm

rgem looks a bit better than nam.
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:25 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Sticking with sr models now, I think we're done with the mod range models. It's almost nowcast time....

Agree Janet.Models all over the place.Nowcast time.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:28 pm

Holy check out the front end thump of snow tomorrow according to the RGEM in NNJ. The area does switch to rain, but still...impressive.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy check out the front end thump of snow tomorrow according to the RGEM in NNJ. The area does switch to rain, but still...impressive.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17

Snow map thru 2pm tomorrow. Some of this is sleet.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Rgem_asnow_neus_19

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:32 pm

Actually I just looked at the soundings and that is all sleet on the RGEM not snow. The RGEM shows significant icing for portions of NNJ/NW NJ in SW NY throughout the day tomorrow before changing to snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:46 pm

GFS is underwhelming

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Gfs.thumb.PNG.88f525003ab9e960f028283cac31a12f

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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:54 pm

hyde345 wrote:RGEM looks pretty good too. GFS just doesn't look right. Hammers NE Penn and NW Jersey and screws everybody else. Even Albany area gets the shaft. Not happening IMO.
GFs caved to EURO and other models. But the surface is just wonky. Like the CCB band it is showing but its location looks wonky as the thermal profiles do as well.
SR models picking it up with SE ticks for the LP location. Alsonuppingbtye snow totals for some reas with a crushing CCB band.
Difficult to nail this down but whomever gets under these can see 1-2/3" snowfall rates for a few hours. The duration is gonna be great for us weenies and lots of nowcasting.
Anyone see this bad boy blitzing the UMW?? Holy smokes it's over performing overall. GFS did and poor job with the strength and thermal profile.
RGEM 2" of this is sleet and still snowing at hour 48 healthfully!!
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Rgem_a13

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:00 pm

Wow rgem suck lol NYC sees 15 inches while I see 4, how the heck does that happen, not buying these models runs.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:08 pm

I think the front-end snow/sleet will over-perform across the area tomorrow before changing to rain. Most likely, N&W of NYC mainly toward NW NJ never changeover to rain but remain sleet/freezing rain. IMO if there is any concern for ice it would be that general area. A 1-2" event for everyone else late morning/afternoon then we keep an eye on the possible CCB on Monday.


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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:37 pm

CMC is a big hit for NYC metro.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:46 pm

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Gem_ms10
Check out the CCB band on the Canadian!
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:01 am

GEM anyone for pure weenie fantasy LOL.
December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Gem_asnow_neus_9.png.54466f0a6f89ce04cf5db669ef4a18c6
Snows until 5-6am in NYC NYC Metro

Gem Lam Hi Res Canadian model is still snowing at hour 48 with these totals.

Cant upload the picture for some reason argghh
Got itDecember 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Hrdps_asnow_neus_48

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:40 am

Yeah probably not going happen 06z nam cut back on totals even up north. It gets very ragged and has a pretty good period where nothing is falling.
Wsw issued all way down to about 15 miles from me or less and 7 to 12 there me...wwa 2 to 4. So 3 to 4x as much snow in a 15 mile ? Is this really go happen that way that's crazy if so. And really stinks.
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:48 am

Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:26 am

docstox12 wrote:Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.

Lol. Love this. Every storm there are bust torpedoes that find their mark. However; occasionally  those bust torpedoes involve higher totals.  Here’s to positive bust torpedo potential Doc!

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Post by Radz on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:27 am

docstox12 wrote:Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.
Hahaha love the torpedo reference, yeah my daughter is driving back to Red Sox Suck, i told her to wait till this morning instead of driving last night 'cause there was no way it was getting here at 7am
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:38 am

sroc4 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Upgraded to a winter storm warning and still calling for anywhere between 7 to 14 inches.No way this is starting at 7 AM, radar is very ragged, in fact, I see clear sky to my north.Don't see it starting until late morning.First bust torpedo fired across the bow of this thing,LOL.

Lol. Love this. Every storm there are bust torpedoes that find their mark. However; occasionally  those bust torpedoes involve higher totals.  Here’s to positive bust torpedo potential Doc!

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Ok doc, hoping the same happens for all of us on this!
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:57 am

Check out the banding on latest 06Z Rgem.  Man.  

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Rgem10

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:58 am

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 12091210
This morning's 6Z Euro ups snow totals for NYC metro...
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:01 am

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Rgem_a10
While the 6Z RGEM is a crusher for peeps just NW of NYC.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:22 am

The GFS seems extremely disjointed and confused on how to handle the vorticity within the ULL. It has pockets of dry slots or very light precip whereas the NAM seems realistic in the sense you have a coastal low developing, which should promote banding, within a ULL filled with UL energy.

GFS valid 7pm tomorrow

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Gfs

NAM valid 7pm tomorrow

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 Nam

A difference could be how the ULL is positioned. The NAM has it closer to the coast and wrapped tightly whereas the GFS is further east and more 'open' allowing UL energy to escape. The model handling the ULL - upper level low - most accurately will end up a champion.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:24 am

The RGEM/NAM are showing snowier solutions because of how they are handling the ULL. They promote banding to take hold over the area. Check out 700mb frontogenesis on the latest RGEM. Anyone under those purple circles are seeing snow rates of 2"/hour.

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm - Page 4 F622689D-B841-4B05-9FE7-6D9BD823DC85.thumb.png.9285b3feece916cb627e7801e461692c

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:38 am

Despite the snowy look on the short range models for the coast I remain pessimistic because of how the 700mb/850mb lows track. They're essentially tracking over our area. This would keep the best banding N-NW of us, and actually prevent Long Island from seeing 850mb temps below freezing unless the CCB sets up over them that could generate dynamic cooling.

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Post by Vinnydula on Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:46 am

Sleet and rain at 27 here in Westchester
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:49 am

Sleet here at 27*

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