December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations

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Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:02 pm

billg315 wrote:Amounts across much central/north NJ seem to be trending up in models and forecasts. It appears consensus is building, as Frank projected hours ago, around this trough or deformation band setting up over the state tomorrow. I’m increasingly feeling good about many of our chances to hit 6”-plus tomorrow.

Agreed, I think Mt. Holly will have to adjust their maps a bit east. RGEM and NAM seem to be in fairly good agreement and would think a slight tick more east at 0z is very possible.

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Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:13 pm

Hi-Res RGEM a tick east at 18z as well, should be a great run for most

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:17 pm

billg315 wrote:Amounts across much central/north NJ seem to be trending up in models and forecasts. It appears consensus is building, as Frank projected hours ago, around this trough or deformation band setting up over the state tomorrow. I’m increasingly feeling good about many of our chances to hit 6”-plus tomorrow.
What are the chances westchester NY gets into this on the western side of the county? Its pretty darn close, its a big diff from 4 to 10 or so over the river.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:19 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Hi-Res RGEM a tick east at 18z as well, should be a great run for most
I hope it ticks east maybe 25 miles and that will get southenr westchester into that band. Hi-res rgem where do you find that? Weatherbell does not seem to have rgem which i find odd.
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Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Hi-Res RGEM a tick east at 18z as well, should be a great run for most
I hope it ticks east maybe 25 miles and that will get southenr westchester into that band.  Hi-res rgem where do you find that? Weatherbell does not seem to have rgem which i find odd.

Tropical tidbits has it, (HRDPS). It's definitely a good tick east, Westchester looks to do very well on this run

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:23 pm

I think it be wise to call a half day tomorrow especially after last years fiasco, better safe than sorry. talking bout schools that is.
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Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:23 pm

Looks like the snow will be west of NYC across much of Jersey. Folks East of NYC look to miss this one and and NYC is on the line.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:23 pm

No change to my thinking. The yellow circle on my snow map is meant for these types of storms where models have no clue where the deform band sets up. If you’re in a 2-4 zone on my map but in the yellow circle, you COULD see 4 or more inches on top of the 2-4 depending on the banding.

The only areas I’m confident in seeing much less snow than everyone else is central/eastern LI unless drastic changes happen with the track of the UL lows

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:24 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Hi-Res RGEM a tick east at 18z as well, should be a great run for most
I hope it ticks east maybe 25 miles and that will get southenr westchester into that band.  Hi-res rgem where do you find that? Weatherbell does not seem to have rgem which i find odd.

Tropical tidbits has it, (HRDPS). It's definitely a good tick east, Westchester looks to do very well on this run
Yeah I noted quite a tick east from 12z to 18z, another slight tick and looking at double digits possible, but 6 - 8 is great and in line with franks map. I still do not get why NWS only has us for 2 to 4 including today. Which we got nanad.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:24 pm

ENJ, NYC and WLI are all wild cards. Right now thinking they avoid the deform band. It sets up just west.

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Post by Sanchize06 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:29 pm

December 1st-2nd Winter Storm Observations  - Page 6 Hrdps_asnow_neus_44

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Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:30 pm

18z HRDPS has the deform band slam west of NYC and then also has another develop over LI. Gives everyone a nice snow event. Let’s hope that happens

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Post by Fededle22 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:33 pm

That is unfortunate Frank. Would you consider West Orange as part of this area? Currently NWS has me in the 3-5 inch range for tomorrow.


Frank_Wx wrote:ENJ, NYC and WLI are all wild cards. Right now thinking they avoid the deform band. It sets up just west.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:35 pm

Frank do you think 2 to 4 and a wwa only is a bit low looking at recent models and your map has me solidly in 4 to 8. U think Upton is just waiting or do u agree with them? Kind of a dumb question cuz ur map says you don't but what's their deal then?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:36 pm

aiannone wrote:18z HRDPS has the deform band slam west of NYC and then also has another develop over LI. Gives everyone a nice snow event. Let’s hope that happens

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I'll sign for that now anything more will be icing on the cake. Had me about 8 to 10 must GWT into that band a little.
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Post by Math23x7 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:39 pm

At 4" of snow so far here in Albany.

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Post by Irish on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:44 pm

That beautiful green color on the map covers the entire county of Middlesex... SWEET!

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Post by jimv45 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:49 pm

Starting to get going now heavy snow at 24 degrees.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:50 pm

Math23x7 wrote:At 4" of snow so far here in Albany.
whoo hooo...so exciting!! I am happy for you!
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:55 pm

26 and heavy snow. 3 inches OTG.
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Post by jimv45 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:01 pm

Yea hyde snowing hard looks like 3 plus and counting here!! I see my old stomping grounds looks to be mixing and looks to be moving north hoping to avoid that where I am now!!

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:12 pm

pouring rain, was expected though. icy from whats left from b4.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:12 pm

jimv45 wrote:Yea hyde snowing hard looks like 3 plus and counting here!!  I see my old stomping grounds looks to be mixing and looks to be moving north hoping to avoid that where I am now!!

Where in Ulster are you?
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Post by jimv45 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:16 pm

Saugerties!

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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:23 pm

Went out at 5:30 tonight, pouring rain and freezing rain at 33*
Absolutely messy roads and icy conditions.
Many schools are off tomorrow

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