NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum

Current date/time is Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:46 pm

Search found 35 matches for 1

FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Can we call this one of the biggest model fails within 24 hours of a storm in the last ten years at least. The event hadn't happened yet but it's on its way to being that. I at least hope all in NYC and south cash in good.


I would say yes but even worse going back more than 24 hours. If you go back to last Thursday the models had everything from a statewide NJ rainstorm with heavy snow in the mid-HV and NE, to Heavy Snow across the Delmarva to South Jersey with no snow north of NYC; and every solution in between. Worse yet, each model at various points in time presented all of those diverse outcomes, so none were consistent.
The models served two purposes in this case:
1. To confirm there was a storm
2. To confirm that any solution was possible.
I guess there is some value in #1, but very little in #2.
In fact, I guess to pat us on the back, I’d say our guys on here gave more consistent and valuable input/analysis than all the models combined.
by billg315
on Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:44 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: FEB 13th Pre V-Day Storm Part II
Replies: 364
Views: 15370

JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA

This is for Irish....Im a man of my word.  What a Face afro



Ok here is the set up for the potential for the28th-30th time frame.  As has been stated a few times already, a stout +PNA(ridge along the WC of NA), ridge will give rise to the potential.  It cant be stressed enough that this is in the face of an otherwise shitty pattern so alot has to come together just right for it to work out.  And work out for whom.  Obv the coastal plain has the hardest time with temp profiles, where as off the coast may deal with a subsidence zone.  Although keep in mind we all will have to worry about temp profiles to one degree or another.  

As of 6z GFS this am here is the two main energies at 500mb (18-20k ft).  Labeled 1 & 2.  #1 is the energy in the Pac jet which we will call the southern stream (s/s) energy and will give rise to our system, and #2 will create an arctic/polar High Pressure (HP) that will be critical for this set up for providing a cold air source.  

As you can see both pieces will dig into these two approx locations by hr 72, approx 3 days from now.  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de65


As you can now see in below image the energies are in position.  From here 1 & 2 head off in the direction indicated by the arrow.   

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de67

(see below) At the surface, the result of #1 is the development of a surface LP somewhere out ahead of the 500mb energy, and the result of #2 in its position is an HP developing in it's wake.  


Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de68


Now quickly look back at the surface map above because this becomes a critical crossroads as we move forward.  The surface LP will now heads towards the Ohio/Tenn Valleys, while the HP dives into SE Canada.  Simply stated, in essence the overall outcome of this potential will be dictated by the exact timing, strength, and positioning of these two main features.  It becomes a race to see who can get into position first, the HP or the LP, to determine how much cold air is available, and when and where.  

(Now see below) The primary LP(P LP) will cut towards the Ohio and Tenn valley.  In the latest GFS run it takes the P LP north into Western Pa before transferring off the Atlantic coast, and from there the Primary deepens and heads NE.  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de69
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de15



So to summerize:

1) How strong and How quickly the HP moves in to our north will dictate how far north and west our Primary LP can track before being forced to transfer to the coast.(by the way this is what a Miller B set up is...a cutting primary with a secondary LP transfer to the coast)

AND...

2) How strong and positioning of the HP also tells us how much cold air is available for the system.  

CURRENTLY ON THE MODELS:  ---Pay attention to HP strength ad placement---

GFS = Cuts furthest north(western PA/E Ohio) before transfer therefore secondary LP too close to the coast and only aeas furthest N&W will be cold enough to snow

CMC = Primary only makes it to W Va before transferring to the coast

Euro =  notice its HP position and strength compared to GFS and CMC.  Its very late to the party with the HP, but the southern energy takes a more direct route through the eastern Tenn valley, straight to the coast instead of a true Miller B where it cuts west; then transfer of energy to the coast.  This will keep the coastal plain warm because of the Antecedent Air mass in place at least per 00z run verbatim.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de70
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al17
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf178

So as you can see there is still much uncertainty in the exact evolution of some of the key players.  There are still big picture details that are still unclear.  As we all know small changes at 500mb can have large impacts on how the surface features play out.  Like pretty much any winter storm, the exact IMBY details will likely not be ironed out until within 24-48hrs.


We Track!   What a Face
by sroc4
on Wed Jan 24, 2024 8:31 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: JAN 28th-30th 2024 Potential system compliments of a +PNA
Replies: 120
Views: 5829

Long Range Thread 28.0

Ok here is the set up for the potential for the28th-30th time frame.  As has been stated a few times already, a stout +PNA(ridge along the WC of NA), ridge will give rise to the potential.  It cant be stressed enough that this is in the face of an otherwise shitty pattern so alot has to come together just right for it to work out.  And work out for whom.  Obv the coastal plain has the hardest time with temp profiles, where as off the coast may deal with a subsidence zone.  Although keep in mind we all will have to worry about temp profiles to one degree or another.  

As of 6z GFS this am here is the two main energies at 500mb (18-20k ft).  Labeled 1 & 2.  #1 is the energy in the Pac jet which we will call the southern stream (s/s) energy and will give rise to our system, and #2 will create an arctic/polar High Pressure (HP) that will be critical for this set up for providing a cold air source.  

As you can see both pieces will dig into these two approx locations by hr 72, approx 3 days from now.  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de65


As you can now see in below image the energies are in position.  From here 1 & 2 head off in the direction indicated by the arrow.   

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de67

(see below) At the surface, the result of #1 is the development of a surface LP somewhere out ahead of the 500mb energy, and the result of #2 in its position is an HP developing in it's wake.  


Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de68


Now quickly look back at the surface map above because this becomes a critical crossroads as we move forward.  The surface LP will now heads towards the Ohio/Tenn Valleys, while the HP dives into SE Canada.  Simply stated, in essence the overall outcome of this potential will be dictated by the exact timing, strength, and positioning of these two main features.  It becomes a race to see who can get into position first, the HP or the LP, to determine how much cold air is available, and when and where.  

(Now see below) The primary LP(P LP) will cut towards the Ohio and Tenn valley.  In the latest GFS run it takes the P LP north into Western Pa before transferring off the Atlantic coast, and from there the Primary deepens and heads NE.  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de69
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de15



So to summerize:

1) How strong and How quickly the HP moves in to our north will dictate how far north and west our Primary LP can track before being forced to transfer to the coast.(by the way this is what a Miller B set up is...a cutting primary with a secondary LP transfer to the coast)

AND...

2) How strong and positioning of the HP also tells us how much cold air is available for the system.  

CURRENTLY ON THE MODELS:  ---Pay attention to HP strength ad placement---

GFS = Cuts furthest north(western PA/E Ohio) before transfer therefore secondary LP too close to the coast and only aeas furthest N&W will be cold enough to snow

CMC = Primary only makes it to W Va before transferring to the coast

Euro =  notice its HP position and strength compared to GFS and CMC.  Its very late to the party with the HP, but the southern energy takes a more direct route through the eastern Tenn valley, straight to the coast instead of a true Miller B where it cuts west; then transfer of energy to the coast.  This will keep the coastal plain warm because of the Antecedent Air mass in place at least per 00z run verbatim.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de70
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al17
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf178

So as you can see there is still much uncertainty in the exact evolution of some of the key players.  There are still big picture details that are still unclear.  As we all know small changes at 500mb can have large impacts on how the surface features play out.  Like pretty much any winter storm, the exact IMBY details will likely not be ironed out until within 24-48hrs.


We Track!   What a Face
by sroc4
on Wed Jan 24, 2024 8:22 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Long Range Thread 28.0
Replies: 429
Views: 23806

December 2023 Observations and Discussion

sroc4 wrote:I was debating “weather” to post this in banter or observations thread. I decided here because the image below pretty much sums up most of our observations over the last few years.

I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas….Buon Natale!!

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Img_7211


Oh my goodness, so funny…and so accurate! My personal favorite is #1, and #2, and really #3-6 also.

Merry Christmas to all and to all an actually and imminently occurring pattern change for the better!!!
by SENJsnowman
on Mon Dec 25, 2023 11:21 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: December 2023 Observations and Discussion
Replies: 268
Views: 10083

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

Frank_Wx wrote:
deadrabbit79 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.


With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?


I kinda like how the EURO depicts rainfall for this storm. The mean is 2-3” with pockets of more than 3” over areas where heavier bands set up. The upper level low does not stay closed off. By the time it reaches the Delmarva it becomes an open wave which allows vorticity to escape east.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Img_6616

I know Ray discussed this..but…this was very close to being a widespread blizzard for the area. Makes me want to puke thinking about it. Oh well. Onto the next one



Looks like the soaking rainstorm is going to happen.Could be up to 5 inches here in the LHV.
I don't feel too bad about this not being snow seeing it will be heavy rain all the way through Maine.A real kick in the head would be seeing 30 inches of snow in Central NY with heavy rain here.
Very close for an epic snowstorm but this pattern that has set up since Nov. 1 is relentless.Hopelfully, this storm shakes things up.Looming large here is "as December goes, so goes the winter"!
by docstox12
on Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:26 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?
Replies: 247
Views: 8444

OOTI - where using the letters MJO or GLC is a capital offense

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I will be taking a break from the Mainland and OTI for a bit. I thought I'd go back for a week or two to my old stomping grounds on the breakaway Republic of OOTI.  It's a part of OTI again, but still has that renegade feel to it.

Having created OOTI several years ago, I feel free here to create my own laws without having to run them through Parliament, and my good friends that still visit, Docstox, Billg, Damian, and Doc (Scott)

Law #1 on OOTI - This law supersedes any laws made before or after this point in time:

Not only is the term MJO not allowed to be used here but from this point forward the letters MJ and O are no longer allowed, t be used n TI in any fr, fr any reasn.

I hpe t see everyne back n the ainland and TI if this Gd awful pattern we have been stuck in fr tw years ever changes.

CPcanteasuresnw
Diretr f the Treasury
Grand High Exalted ystic Ruler


lol! lol! lol!
by docstox12
on Sun Dec 17, 2023 6:05 am
 
Search in: Kingdom OTI
Topic: OOTI - where using the letters MJO or GLC is a capital offense
Replies: 176
Views: 10996

OOTI - where using the letters MJO or GLC is a capital offense

I will be taking a break from the Mainland and OTI for a bit. I thought I'd go back for a week or two to my old stomping grounds on the breakaway Republic of OOTI.  It's a part of OTI again, but still has that renegade feel to it.

Having created OOTI several years ago, I feel free here to create my own laws without having to run them through Parliament, and my good friends that still visit, Docstox, Billg, Damian, and Doc (Scott)

Law #1 on OOTI - This law supersedes any laws made before or after this point in time:

Not only is the term MJO not allowed to be used here but from this point forward the letters MJ and O are no longer allowed, t be used n TI in any fr, fr any reasn.

I hpe t see everyne back n the ainland and TI if this Gd awful pattern we have been stuck in fr tw years ever changes.

CPcanteasuresnw
Diretr f the Treasury
Grand High Exalted ystic Ruler
by CPcantmeasuresnow
on Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:07 pm
 
Search in: Kingdom OTI
Topic: OOTI - where using the letters MJO or GLC is a capital offense
Replies: 176
Views: 10996

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

Frank_Wx wrote:
deadrabbit79 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.


With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?


I kinda like how the EURO depicts rainfall for this storm. The mean is 2-3” with pockets of more than 3” over areas where heavier bands set up. The upper level low does not stay closed off. By the time it reaches the Delmarva it becomes an open wave which allows vorticity to escape east.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Img_6616

I know Ray discussed this..but…this was very close to being a widespread blizzard for the area. Makes me want to puke thinking about it. Oh well. Onto the next one



A 1040+ mb H parked over Quebec pinned by 50/50 L which is pinned by -NAO yeah I think this would be pushing much more east and we'd in nirvana with this one. You don't have H and I say again the NAM state ruined this one for us...
by heehaw453
on Sat Dec 16, 2023 4:12 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?
Replies: 247
Views: 8444

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

deadrabbit79 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.


With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?


I kinda like how the EURO depicts rainfall for this storm. The mean is 2-3” with pockets of more than 3” over areas where heavier bands set up. The upper level low does not stay closed off. By the time it reaches the Delmarva it becomes an open wave which allows vorticity to escape east.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Img_6616

I know Ray discussed this..but…this was very close to being a widespread blizzard for the area. Makes me want to puke thinking about it. Oh well. Onto the next one

by Frank_Wx
on Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:14 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?
Replies: 247
Views: 8444

DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?

Frank_Wx wrote:I think we’re looking at 2-3” of rain and gusts as high as 45mph for NYC and areas just N&W. Areas east of NYC probably same rainfall amounts but a bit more wind. I think they’ll mix down more than what we saw last storm, but I also don’t believe the extreme winds some models show of 70+ mph (can’t discount this on the island though).

Rain is poised to start tomorrow afternoon. Probably after 3pm. Heaviest comes after midnight into Monday morning.


With regards the rain and the amounts….2-3 inches SEEMS manageable for most.  #1 any Chance of deluge type rainfalls like we got with the September 29th and October 7th storms where some got 4,5,6 inches?  #2 are we helped out at all by the fact that this rainfall seems to come over a 15-18 hour timeframe?
by deadrabbit79
on Sat Dec 16, 2023 2:56 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: DEC 18th-20th 2023--Wet, White, Wind?
Replies: 247
Views: 8444

Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia

Interested to see if we have some localized flooding issues tomorrow. Plenty of rain today with round one and the ground is saturated to the max, as are rivers and streams. Round two tomorrow could still pack a punch with rainfall, and there isn’t really anywhere for the excess water to go. As you see below #1 was todays rain, but #2 is tomorrow’s round.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Img_2716
by billg315
on Sat Sep 23, 2023 6:49 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ophelia
Replies: 79
Views: 3521

2023 Atlantic Tropics season

This would be well alarming if it did happen from WxBell SPIRE #1 Analog.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  F5qmtk10
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  F5qmtk10
by amugs
on Sun Sep 10, 2023 10:15 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
Replies: 494
Views: 24789

Banter Thread 8.0

kalleg wrote:Fairliegh Dickenson a great school, would be a more than fine choice--and now is in the headlines as only the second 16th seed ever to defeat the #1 seed (Purdue 63-58) yesterday in the basketball NCAA championships!


Wow, I saw that this morning.The years I was on campus there 1970-1976, they always struggled.Amazing that what is known as a commuters school could knock off Perdue.
by docstox12
on Sat Mar 18, 2023 8:40 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Banter Thread 8.0
Replies: 982
Views: 47881

Banter Thread 8.0

Fairliegh Dickenson a great school, would be a more than fine choice--and now is in the headlines as only the second 16th seed ever to defeat the #1 seed (Purdue 63-58) yesterday in the basketball NCAA championships!
by kalleg
on Sat Mar 18, 2023 8:30 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Banter Thread 8.0
Replies: 982
Views: 47881

DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ????

rb924119 wrote:Now that I've had a chance to glance at tonight's 00z suites coming in, I like the trends aloft even though the surface maps are not yet where I think they will end up.

00z GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly trend:

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-en11

00z GEM/CMC 500mb height anomaly trend:

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem_z510


Morning everyone!!!!!  Here is the Link to Rays video he posted in the Discussions thread.  I encourage everyone to take a listen.  Its phenominal:  

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gonDCUaWVuA3Grk8Khi_qgno0tRQHRm5/view?usp=sharing

Ray phenomenal video!  Thank you.  I wish I could do video's too.  I feel like it would save me so much time.  I am; however, going to have to respectfully disagree with a couple of points you make.  Well maybe not disagree but more point out a few key areas that I did not see you comment on and what I feel are just as important, if not more important.  

I will focus on the GFS only to make my points.  Some of this was already discussed in my last write up.  Ray in your video you discuss the trough split of the Pac energy and discuss the piece ejecting out vs the piece that backs up off the WC.  It felt like you were inferring that the energy that gets ejected ends up being the energy that is our system.  This part I disagree with.  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0610

Above is hr6, or about 7am this am, from this am's 06z GFS.  In addition to the trough split from the Pac energy as outlined in the video, there is a second trough split associated with the trough in the Sub Trop region.  Its this energy that gets ejected that will eventually give rise to the LP that develops near or just off the coast.  The energy that gets ejected from the Pac energy ends up strung out along the boundary layer that develops from the system that passes late tomorrow night.  The other area not mentioned in the video are the two circles  not labeled.  The one over the N plains CONUS is the late Mon system that heads towards Greenland.  The one to its N is another key factor IMHO that I mentioned in my prior discussion.  Ill get back to this point shortly

Fast forward to Hr 72:

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0613
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0614


Above is the same image zoomed in on the CONUS view.  Notice that there ae two troughs out lined. One N of th GL and the other digging into the plains.  Each has its own pivot point.  What seems to be very clear to me in the evolution in the modeling is the positioning of that trough N of the great lakes. This feature is absolutely vital in preventing heights from increasing ahead of the system.  

Look below to Hr 81 on this mornings 6z.  BUT FIRST lets look at the same time stamp Wed 15z from yesterdays 12z GFS that I posted in my prev discussion and compare it to this mornings 06z run and pay attention to where that trough N of the GL is.  With it further east and north on yesterdays 12z run there is no resistance to the height increase from the trough digging into the Plains phasing into the boundary layer.  The result is a LP track into the Tenn Vally, and a much warmer soln on yest 12z. Vs the 6z from this am the placement of the GL trough is acting to limit the ability to raise heights leading to a colder soln relatively speaking when comp to12z yest.  


Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de29
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0615

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de30
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0616

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_1210
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_6z10


Briefly getting back to this point I made at the beginning of todays discussion:

The other area not mentioned in the video are the two circles  not labeled.  The one over the N plains CONUS is the late Mon system that heads towards Greenland.  The one to its N is another key factor IMHO that I mentioned in my prior discussion.  

The trend for the Monday system is to be further S from prev.  First image is yesterdays 12z map and the second is this mornings 6z both valid for 15z Wed.  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de31
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_0617

You can see the center is now south of Greenland's SE tip compared to yesterdays 12z run where it was due east of Greenland's SE tip.  In addition to that, look at the map below.  It shows the GFS trends.  The area I have circled is the energy I have labeled #3 in the discussion maps above and you can clearly see it is trending darker blue which means lower pressure in the area just N of the GL.  Again this energy/feature offers the only resistance against the otherwise immediate surge of the warm layers as energy #2 phases with #1 because both the Pac and Atlantic pattern does not offer any real help at all.    

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs_tr10

Myself, Ray(rb, Frank, Heehaw, Mugsy, Al etc., have all pointed out that we are not in a great pattern for snow.  But as I have also pointed out in the past, it can still snow in shitty patterns when things come together just right.  We just need BABY BEAR.  (My Baby Bear here on Long Island may be slightly diff than Baby bear N&W of NYC, but you get the point)

We still have a little ways to go to see how we trend last minute.  The GFS is def still the warmest and wettest soln but it is on its own at the moment and has 100% been trending colder due to the things I outlined above.  The Euro, CMC, and now NAM(although NAM still not in its wheelhouse yet) all have a much more suppressed colder soln overall.  To me the trend towards a colder soln has been clear across all models, keeping the entire region, including the immediate coast in play for accumulation, but remember very tiny changes at 500mb can lead to much larger changes at the surface for better or worse (warmer or colder)(wetter or dryer-OTS) relative to your specific location so stay tuned as we are approaching game time.

WE TRACK!!!!!  What a Face  What a Face  What a Face  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Baby_b10
by sroc4
on Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:03 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: DECEMBER 8TH 2021---First real accumulating snow potential ????
Replies: 44
Views: 4168

December 2021 Obs and Discussion

heehaw453 wrote:Many op models showing a fairly stationary 1030mb+ High parked over Southern Quebec.  I don't think this is going to be suppressed and OTS with a decent WAR.  That gives the coastal plain a chance at some snow if that high pressure is correct.  The antecedent air mass is good for early December on this and I can tell you that high pressure CAD is often under modelled.  It will depend on how far away from the coast the storm consolidates.  Once again though NW of 95 are in a threat for several inches of snow especially I-80 and above.



Looking at 500 you can see why that makes sense and why the GFS still has the HP retreating quickly, and is warmest soln, the Euro is the most suppressed and coldest soln, and the CMC is in between.  

Here are the three global models at 500mb on approach and their respective surface depiction for the same time stamp.  All valid for 15z Wed, or 10am Wed.  Euro, CMC, and GFS.  

The set up is such that a boundary layer will set up after the Late Mond system passes NW and drags the front through.  Along the frontal boundary weak LP will develop,   black circle #1, and ride along it.  On the GFS you can see the result of #3 so far east and # 2 so far S&W relative to one another and the fact that #1 is out in front of #2 allows the boundary layer to set up    furthest N of all solns.  

The euro on the other hand is the other side of the soln cone where the proximity of both #3 to #2, forces the boundary much further S&E.  

The positioning of #1, #2, an #3 relative to each other is in between the GFS an Euro.  

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de29
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al12
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf-70

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de30
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al13
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf-71


So if you look at the GFS as the current warmest soln, and the Euro as the coldest soln, very very commonly the final soln lies somewhere in between which def bodes well for most of us to see some white gold at least, and areas N&W in line for accumulation.  

Just briefly below I expanded the 500mb view to see the location of where the system that passes Mondayends up.  Again, GFS furthest N which allows our HP to escape faster, hence the warmer soln.  Euro is the furthest S, and CMC in between.

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gfs-de31
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Gem-al14
Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwf-72

Im getting a little excited.


WE TRACK!!!!   What a Face
by sroc4
on Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:23 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: December 2021 Obs and Discussion
Replies: 151
Views: 10317

2021 Tropical Season

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:One final note.  I believe recon planes are set to go out and sample conditions along the EC and I think directly into Henri early this afternoon, so maybe 18z runs today, more likely 00z, models should have this data incorporated into its soln.  


You are correct, good sir!!



Looks like they are En route!

AF304 Mission #1 into HENRI
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 15:19 UTC Aug 19, 2021:
Aircraft Position: 25.55°N 78.72°W
Bearing: 27° at 263 kt
Altitude: 7467 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 22 kt at 81°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A
by sroc4
on Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:32 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: 2021 Tropical Season
Replies: 1072
Views: 30531

Banter Thread 6.0

Crop Issues going to be another compounding problem as we move forward to the fall. South America crops of corn, wheat and #1 exporter of coffee got ravaged by the cold Antarctic air. Massive China floods, American drought out west and in the Northern Plains. Just keep an eye on this. Pressure being felt already by future markets for each of these products.

https://electroverse.net/wheat-farmer-woes-decimated-corn-crops-no-feed-for-livestock-what-will-we-eat/
by amugs
on Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:40 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Banter Thread 6.0
Replies: 732
Views: 36520

February 2021 Observations and Discussions

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Went down from 14 inches otg yesterday morning to 10.5 otg this morning. This morning becomes my first day with less than a foot otg this month.

It was a really good 24 day run but not fantastic, like I've never seen, historic, or any of the other hyperbole you may read. If somehow this is it for winter, February gets an A+ and the winter as a whole gets a C. Hopefully March delivers in the HV as it usually does, then I'll adjust the grade accordingly. The first week of March is not promising at this stage.


From the imby perspective, this fairly well describes my winter too. Accumulating snow in March is prob more normal than not on a year by year basis down here, but at present I’m figuring that’s a wrap for this year.

Major theme: Snowfall returns!

Minor theme #1: A Ferocious February! (Technically, not a true statement imby, as my highest measurement was actually 5+” on Jan 31, but by Wxecutive Order, that counts towards Feb for this year.)

Minor theme #2: Big time near misses for Coastal Ocean.

My overall grade at this point probably a B, a lot better than the D and F from the previous two years.

The tracking this winter has been amazing too! What a show you guys have put on for us winter weenies!! Thank you so much for the time put in and expertise/wisdom shared!
by SENJsnowman
on Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:22 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 2021 Observations and Discussions
Replies: 134
Views: 7841

Monday's N&W Snowfall

Daytime snow in late Feb/March all comes down to two things: 1.) was a layer of snow put down before the sun comes up (ie has the snow started accumulating before daybreak and can just build on what already is accumulating); and 2. What is the intensity of snowfall. We don’t have #1 tomorrow, so it comes down to intensity. In March 2018 I was reminded how snow will accumulate despite sun angle in March as long as it is moderate to heavy and ground temps are close to freezing. I think N&W of I-95 surface temps will be close enough to freezing that any moderate to heavy snow will stick. I could see a few hours of decent snow rates from this with 2-4” sticking. Major, well traveled, treated highways may not get too bad but side roads could see decent accumulation.
by billg315
on Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:08 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: Monday's N&W Snowfall
Replies: 164
Views: 7208

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

mmanisca wrote:Bernie is going with 6-12 inches on Long Island! LOL nearing 8" already with the heavy stuff yet to come!
no comment, i do not wanna break a #1 rule on the forum, but im sorry thats wrong, obviously per your observation.
by jmanley32
on Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:26 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast
Replies: 706
Views: 28163

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

It's a blip ask on I wouldn't worry much if anyone sees sleet #1 it'll be brief #2 don't go out in it unless you wanna look like Freddy Kruger...
by jmanley32
on Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:11 am
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 595
Views: 21338

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Madonna mia

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png.bd1044caeb9e34fa97baf26c66066d20

Jeeze, do these mix to the ground? with the east to west flow does that change the way winds work? usually this as u said is a different shape, i know 70kts isnt mixing down but thats what 80mph? so 55-60 i would think could be possible. Thats nuts they need to make more wind headlines IMO if thats something that might verify. #1 takeaway no one should be out on monday.


I don't know about those winds mixing down, but under that strong flow is where you'll see some pretty impressive snow rates, so look out if you're under that.
well either way thats impressive.
by jmanley32
on Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:32 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 595
Views: 21338

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Madonna mia

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png.bd1044caeb9e34fa97baf26c66066d20

Jeeze, do these mix to the ground? with the east to west flow does that change the way winds work? usually this as u said is a different shape, i know 70kts isnt mixing down but thats what 80mph? so 55-60 i would think could be possible. Thats nuts they need to make more wind headlines IMO if thats something that might verify. #1 takeaway no one should be out on monday.


I don't know about those winds mixing down, but under that strong flow is where you'll see some pretty impressive snow rates, so look out if you're under that.
by billg315
on Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:30 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 595
Views: 21338

February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonna mia

Topics tagged under 1 on NJ Strong Weather Forum  Ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png.bd1044caeb9e34fa97baf26c66066d20
Jeeze, do these mix to the ground? with the east to west flow does that change the way winds work? usually this as u said is a different shape, i know 70kts isnt mixing down but thats what 80mph? so 55-60 i would think could be possible. Thats nuts they need to make more wind headlines IMO if thats something that might verify. #1 takeaway no one should be out on monday.
by jmanley32
on Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:26 pm
 
Search in: Official Weather Talk Thread
Topic: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Replies: 595
Views: 21338

Back to top

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

Jump to: