Pattern Change WILL Happen, Snow Around The 16th?

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It looks good right now but how many times in the last two years have we seen a pattern charge in the long range that never came to fruition? The euro and to a greater extent, the gfs, seem to over do the cold air in the long range. We can hope to see a pattern change, but I am not sold yet. Good write up though Frank.

I don't consider this long range. Next week is just 7 days out. We're looking for this to come around the 16th. Lets make it happen

I remember very well how the winter of 2006-07 in that from late November 2006 to mid-January 2007, it was unseasonably warm in NYC. In fact, on January 6th, 2007, the afternoon high was a record setting 72 degrees in Central Park. Around January 16th, however, the weather pattern completely changed to below seasonal temperatures as there were numerous mornings in the teens and single digits. There were also two ice storms, one on Valentine's Day and one right before St. Patrick's Say. And the first half of April also saw chilly weather. So I wonder if next week will be like what we saw six years ago.

I've been looking at this pattern change. From what i've seen before it arrives a very slow moving cold front will move over the region. To me it looked pretty strong so I checked the GFS and today's 18z run at hour 192 shows elevated CAPE, lifting and showalter indeces over our area. Nothing too extreme but I think we cant rule out some rumbles of thunder or lightning as this passes through. Of course, it's too far away at this time to know what will happen exactly.

Yea Tom will be interesting to see how that told front comes through. Models are all over the place with it

Yeah, GFS has a strong front while the EURO fades it out over the Apps.

Looks like the front may push through a little quicker on this run of the 00z GFS

northern Minnesota and North Dakota looks to get in on some snow this weekend...

Hour 168, the 0C Line is now in central NY. Looks like there may be a storm signal before truncation

Hour 180

Huge inland runner, but look at the cold air behind it\

Frank_Wx wrote:I don't consider this long range. Next week is just 7 days out. We're looking for this to come around the 16th. Lets make it happen

Hahaha I didnt even realize what date it was already.

Latest 12z GFS looks much better than it did at 00z for our pattern change.

1. No longer shows a GLC

2. Front comes through quicker, NAO goes negative

3. Ridge in the west maintains itself l

4. PV location is more optimal

The sudden and sharp decline of the AO (arctic oscillation) indicates that the stratospheric warming that was expected to take place is now moving downward into the troposphere. This means that after the warm up this week into early next week, colder temps should move into thenortheast U.S. The question then becomes does the cold air stay, or does it move out again? If you read my blog from yesterday on www.epawa.net
, Im pretty confident we will be in a pattern change of sustained cold weather by the 17th of January, with maybe a storm around the 20th-24th.

-I made this post on my FB page

This is the best the 12z EURO has looked all winter.

Woah, the 12z GFS really backs off on the cold air. Re-establishes the SE ridge after a moderate cooldown.

That's long range though. GFS/Euro are both good in the medium range and that's all that matters. Ensembles as well.

Euro ensembles are colder than previous runs. Good to see. I do believe this cold outbreak will happen.

Thanks for joining Anthony

I'll be looking froward to the 00z GFS tonight.

00z GFS complete pattern change by th 17th of January. The wave on the 17th could trend colder, but I would not get amped about that. Main thing is the pattern will change. Praise Jesus.

You can see where the snowfall sets up on the 17th storm. Northwest of I-95. Hudson Valley does well

So this is what happens when the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event is on your side of the globe, unlike last season.

Crazy -AO

12z GFS is still on pace for the pattern change. The Pacific pattern looks very good on this run, even though the -NAO is slower to develop, it still does.

Impressive cold run. Get ready folks! All we need is a storm and we're golden..