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Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:00 pm

If HRRR is right no one sees frz but sleet and then changes to rain very quickly and very far inland too, so I do not buy the HRRR weither.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:If HRRR is right no one sees frz but sleet and then changes to rain very quickly and very far inland too, so I do not buy the HRRR weither.

As Hyde said and I agree, I could see maybe someone getting up to a half inch of ice from this, and I've been in  ice storms before and that's more than enough for a lot of damage.

Personally I want no part of it. I'd rather have rain any day.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:26 pm

just starting to spritz outside....the temps have been stuck on 35* all day
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:36 pm

This is what just 1/4-1/2 inch of ice can do yikes, luckily we wont have the wind to contend with if the ice accumulates that much.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK3NFANZHv8

I concur CP, I did not realize just this amount could cause so much damage.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The 18z HRDPS is gonna crush southern areas with snow and ice, I cannot confirm precip types as tropical tidbits doesnt have that but wxbell does but they are slow so it might take a while.

Very little snow from 18Z HRDPS.  Maybe an inch.  .5" EPA to .8" NNJ ice accretion NNJ.  Several runs with meso's saying this and at such short range.  Current surface shows 850's giving way and 925 much colder with CAD signal.  

I think surface cold is locked and loaded.  I buy between .5" - .75" ice accretion with some locally higher amounts especially in NNJ. This will be one to remember or "forget" I think.

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Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 7 925s11

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:37 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The 18z HRDPS is gonna crush southern areas with snow and ice, I cannot confirm precip types as tropical tidbits doesnt have that but wxbell does but they are slow so it might take a while.

Very little snow from 18Z HRDPS.  Maybe an inch.  .5" EPA to .8" NNJ ice accretion NNJ.  Several runs with meso's saying this and at such short range.  Current surface shows 850's giving way and 925 much colder with CAD signal.  

I think surface cold is locked and loaded.  I buy between .5" - .75" ice accretion with some locally higher amounts especially in NNJ.  This will be one to remember or "forget" I think.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:41 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:The 18z HRDPS is gonna crush southern areas with snow and ice, I cannot confirm precip types as tropical tidbits doesnt have that but wxbell does but they are slow so it might take a while.

Very little snow from 18Z HRDPS.  Maybe an inch.  .5" EPA to .8" NNJ ice accretion NNJ.  Several runs with meso's saying this and at such short range.  Current surface shows 850's giving way and 925 much colder with CAD signal.  

I think surface cold is locked and loaded.  I buy between .5" - .75" ice accretion with some locally higher amounts especially in NNJ.  This will be one to remember or "forget" I think.

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Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 7 925s11
It isnt just NNJ its even into the City or just outside, kinda scary after I saw that video. So your kinda starting to believe it heehaw? What about Frank and others? CP I would prefer nothing to rain. Give me snow or nothing but sun.

Here is the ice map, down from before but bad nonethe;less and even into southern westchester where I reside, I do not like the fact power poles are right outside my windows.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 7 18z_hr10

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:43 pm

heehaw HRRR is very different though, so which SR model do we trust the most? HRRR has almost all sleet, which would bode well to frz.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:46 pm

Wow. see that little strip of dark red in southern WC, thats right over yonkers and the 4th color bar (0.75-1.0) I pray we do not get ice like that, however I did stupidly wish to see a ice storm but was never expect the possibility of ST like this. But watch it not pan out even close. CP if your reading this you may want to recind your bet, thats a pretty high bet to take. all you that joked to give me a ton of snow last time probably jinxed me for this...And wow to the west in NJ. This wont be good for anyone, be glad as I said we aren't dealing with any wind, of real concern.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 7 Nyc_ic10
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:52 pm

So I need to understand this better. In order to get freezing rain it has to be 32 or below at the surface to be a issue or its just regular rain? Cuz where I stand now its like 36. Is it going to get colder before things warm or is it only going to warm in the upper levels hence creating rain to fall and ice over at the surface?

Is there a radar we can see precip types for later?
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:10 pm

Cut the ice accumulations by half on these ice maps. Ice does not accumulate at the same rate as snow. Pretty sure it’s like a 1:0.5 ratio

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Post by frank 638 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So I need to understand this better. In order to get freezing rain it has to be 32 or below at the surface to be a issue or its just regular rain? Cuz where I stand now its like 36. Is it going to get colder before things warm or is it only going to warm in the upper levels hence creating rain to fall and ice over at the surface?

Is there a radar we can see precip types for later?
I hope this helps freezing rain happens when temperature In the surface could be 32° or colder sometimes the radar has a hard time picking up freezing rain so even though it has green on the radar and temperatures in the surface is 32 or below it’s raining but it’s freezing rain I hope this helps because I suck at explaining things LOL

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:heehaw HRRR is very different though, so which SR model do we trust the most? HRRR has almost all sleet, which would bode well to frz.

The 3K NAM and HRDPS i believe are more correct based on that fact that past route 78 freezing rain is already occurring. My deck is glazed over and I sit at 31 and am 8 miles from 78. There is warm air above the 850's which is getting shuttled quickly northward. The lower levels though are cold and the wet bulb temps went down again.

The only that that may be the saving grace is temps are so marginal on the surface. If something like this were to occur at 28 it's another animal.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:15 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:So I need to understand this better. In order to get freezing rain it has to be 32 or below at the surface to be a issue or its just regular rain? Cuz where I stand now its like 36. Is it going to get colder before things warm or is it only going to warm in the upper levels hence creating rain to fall and ice over at the surface?

Is there a radar we can see precip types for later?

Surface needs to be below freezing for it to have a major impact. The city and areas surrounding, aka the dreaded heat island effect, is not going to experience a significant ice issue. If any does accumulate prob less than 0.10”

Here’s a good radar

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap


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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:16 pm

@frank 638 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:So I need to understand this better. In order to get freezing rain it has to be 32 or below at the surface to be a issue or its just regular rain? Cuz where I stand now its like 36. Is it going to get colder before things warm or is it only going to warm in the upper levels hence creating rain to fall and ice over at the surface?

Is there a radar we can see precip types for later?
I hope this helps freezing rain happens when temperature In the surface could be 32° or colder  sometimes the radar has a hard time picking up freezing rain so even though it has green on the radar and temperatures in the surface is 32 or below it’s raining but it’s freezing rain I hope this helps because I suck at explaining things LOL

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:heehaw HRRR is very different though, so which SR model do we trust the most? HRRR has almost all sleet, which would bode well to frz.

The 3K NAM and HRDPS i believe are more correct based on that fact that past route 78 freezing rain is already occurring.  My deck is glazed over and I sit at 31 and am 8 miles from 78. There is warm air above the 850's which is getting shuttled quickly northward.  The lower levels though are cold and the wet bulb temps went down again.  

The only that that may be the saving grace is temps are so marginal on the surface.  If something like this were to occur at 28 it's another animal.

Yes. The soundings and 925mb graphics heehaw has posted tell the story.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:21 pm

Many reports coming in across central NJ that mainly rain is falling with some sleet mixed in and there temps are 32-33.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:22 pm

Morristown and points N&W. That’s your ice risk.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 7 Temperature720

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:27 pm

If someone can post wet bulb temps that also is a good indicator of where your temps are headed

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Post by frank 638 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:29 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Many reports coming in across central NJ that mainly rain is falling with some sleet mixed in and there temps are 32-33.
We all know what ice storm Can do and how dangerous it can be especially driving walking trees powerlines but my point is I Rather have snow or rain please stay safe everyone if you don’t have to drive tonight or tomorrow morning don’tIt’s not worth it

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Morristown and points N&W. That’s your ice risk.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 7 Temperature720

Completely agree. I'm at 31.6 and there is definitely melting occurring more so as the precip picks up in intensity. I really hope i dodge this one!

Anyone under 30 degrees watch out!

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:31 pm

Hmm, so then this is looking like no snow or ice for NYC area, so why the WWA? Odd they cancelled bussing at my school, there are hardly any delays across westchester.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hmm, so then this is looking like no snow or ice for NYC area, so why the WWA?  Odd they cancelled bussing at my school, there are hardly any delays across westchester.

As precip becomes heavier those around 33 degrees should drop 2-3 degrees. But anyone 36-37 may not even experience enough dynamic cooling to get below freezing. The city will see ice but it won’t accumulate very much.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:33 pm

@frank 638 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Many reports coming in across central NJ that mainly rain is falling with some sleet mixed in and there temps are 32-33.
We all know what ice storm Can do and how dangerous it can be especially driving walking trees powerlines but my point is I Rather have snow or rain please stay safe everyone if you don’t have to drive tonight or tomorrow morning don’tIt’s not worth it
Sounds like this will be all rain for us buddy. Model fails again, Frankwx if I cut the ice in half for yonkers rgem would still have me at 0.4+, but you are saying 0.10 but my temperature is 36 and warming so it is likely going to be all rain then?
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:If someone can post wet bulb temps that also is a good indicator of where your temps are headed

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 7 Wetbul13

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:35 pm

So even the citys web bulb is near 32 and there air temp is around 35 right now. That won’t do it for ice accretion.

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