January 2020 Observations and Discussion
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HectorO
bobjohnsonforthehall
oldtimer
dsix85
Scullybutcher
SENJsnowman
CPcantmeasuresnow
nutleyblizzard
brownie
Grselig
Vinnydula
Frank_Wx
dkodgis
jmanley32
hyde345
aiannone
sroc4
algae888
heehaw453
billg315
docstox12
amugs
frank 638
weatherwatchermom
Dunnzoo
29 posters
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
The 6z nam just came Way West 2 to 4 in for the city and Long Island
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
The trend has been been clear with the NAM and other guidance. Push the precip a tick further north with each successive run. I would call 2-4" IMBY a HUGE win, but thinking more like 1-3" mostly on colder surfaces.
Precip is mostly after dark and that makes a sig difference even in January on a very marginal surface.
The green blob touches the coast line almost and most likely where surface low will be.
Precip is mostly after dark and that makes a sig difference even in January on a very marginal surface.
The green blob touches the coast line almost and most likely where surface low will be.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Yea, huge shift from models overnight to bring decent snow into our area. Start time appears to be between 6-7pm tonight with heaviest falling closer to Midnight.
Important to keep in mind here is what your surface temps look like when the heaviest snow is falling. Freezing line way up in NW NJ.
Snow will fall, possibly moderately at time, but not expecting big accumulations mainly 1-3" as heehaw said.
Important to keep in mind here is what your surface temps look like when the heaviest snow is falling. Freezing line way up in NW NJ.
Snow will fall, possibly moderately at time, but not expecting big accumulations mainly 1-3" as heehaw said.
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Gfs, NAM, Euro in good agreement for a coating to 2/3" storm from NNJ/NY state border into CNJ. Another tick N would be generous but given the pattern and what this was advertised a few days ago I'll take it and run!!
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
30/19. I'll be curious of my surface temperature high today. If I spike to 37 or above today, then I'm skeptical of anything but white rain. Let's see if 600' elevation does me any good.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I'm not expecting anything my way (GSP Exit 80). By the time our temps crash, looks like maybe an hour or two at most of precip left. This is normal for us, but the lack of 'good' events of any kind isn't. Our high amount in any single storm since the start of last winter has been 2.5-2.75". This winter about 1" as a high, and 1.5-1.75" overall. That's right, these days I measure in 1/4 inch increments...I guess that's another reason why they call this area the Barrens.
Mugs, Hee Haw, feel free to throw a bone this way if you can! lol. Seriously, though great job sizing this thing up and thanks for all the time and effort!
It's gonna come together one of these days for us down here...half full always for me...
Mugs, Hee Haw, feel free to throw a bone this way if you can! lol. Seriously, though great job sizing this thing up and thanks for all the time and effort!
It's gonna come together one of these days for us down here...half full always for me...
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Current wet bulb freezing line (purple). Air is somewhat dry and dew points are in the low 20's for a lot of folks. That matters as to how cold the surface gets when the column saturates. Also matters how cold the 925 mb just above the surface. This is telling me it'll start as rain for some TTN south.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I would honestly be very surprised if anybody saw more than an inch of wet snow besides maybe NE Penn. Nam is best case scenario but is not supported by other models. Temps are marginal at best and I think NYC metro may see some light accums on cars and grass but thats it.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I concur. The wet bulb temps are above freezing for most. The surface temps is 40 IMBY. Fully saturated my surface would be 34 degrees. The surface transfer will most likely cool it down a tad more, but going to be very marginal at best. I will be thrilled to get an inch out of this.
Southerly winds currently to boot.
Southerly winds currently to boot.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Im 41 in Wayne NJ right now. Hoping for something white! Funny how some winters, an inch is a nuisance, now its a smidgen of hope.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
36/27
Light snow. Temp is wet bulbing quickly. Dropped 3 degrees in 10 minutes and winds switched to NE.
I'd be thrilled with an inch.
Light snow. Temp is wet bulbing quickly. Dropped 3 degrees in 10 minutes and winds switched to NE.
I'd be thrilled with an inch.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Cloudy 40* here. Dew Point 26*, so I feel relatively confident once the precipitation starts it will quickly go over to snow (assuming it starts as a brief period of rain at all). Winds NNE here which is the right direction. I'm not expecting anything more than what I woke up to on Monday: Snow covered colder surfaces with a coating to an inch, mainly wet roads.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I have to say, if South Jersey could get cold enough, quick enough, they could see a couple inches because there is a more robust level of precipitation to the south across the Delmarva area. But they are even moreso fighting marginal temps so it probably evens out.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
NWS Upton calling for as much as 2-4 eastern LI and around an inch in NYC.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
31.8/30.2 Moderate snow.
About 1/4" on cold surfaces and just starting to stick on the sidewalk/driveway. Take what i get.
Watch for snow squalls tomorrow too.
About 1/4" on cold surfaces and just starting to stick on the sidewalk/driveway. Take what i get.
Watch for snow squalls tomorrow too.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Still 37* here, not expecting much as it's been trending south and east. Lucky folks on LI may get a decent amount.
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Snow mixing with rain here
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
Leaving Manhattan now. Snowing at the tops of the building but dry at the ground. Air is too dry at the surface. Pretty cool
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
In Manorville, grass already covered. Big flakes and coming down hard.
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
dsix85 wrote:In Manorville, grass already covered. Big flakes and coming down hard.
Same. Radar looks great. Temps really crashing. Down to 34*
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2020 Observations and Discussion
I'm getting into a nice little band now. Best rates of the storm so far. There's a nice band near Trenton that would really bring out the inner weenie in me. 50 miles probably too far, but I'll watch it.
1/2" OTG.
31.5/30.5 Moderate snow.
1/2" OTG.
31.5/30.5 Moderate snow.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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