January 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:43 am

6z NAM. Weird NWS lowered my precip pops to 50% and no accumulation
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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:44 am

Yea, huge shift from models overnight to bring decent snow into our area. Start time appears to be between 6-7pm tonight with heaviest falling closer to Midnight.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_19

Important to keep in mind here is what your surface temps look like when the heaviest snow is falling. Freezing line way up in NW NJ.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Namconus_T2m_neus_22

Snow will fall, possibly moderately at time, but not expecting big accumulations mainly 1-3" as heehaw said.

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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:52 am

Gfs, NAM, Euro in good agreement for a coating to 2/3" storm from NNJ/NY state border into CNJ. Another tick N would be generous but given the pattern and what this was advertised a few days ago I'll take it and run!!

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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:40 am

30/19. I'll be curious of my surface temperature high today. If I spike to 37 or above today, then I'm skeptical of anything but white rain. Let's see if 600' elevation does me any good.

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Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:03 am

I'm not expecting anything my way (GSP Exit 80). By the time our temps crash, looks like maybe an hour or two at most of precip left. This is normal for us, but the lack of 'good' events of any kind isn't. Our high amount in any single storm since the start of last winter has been 2.5-2.75". This winter about 1" as a high, and 1.5-1.75" overall. That's right, these days I measure in 1/4 inch increments...I guess that's another reason why they call this area the Barrens.  Sad

Mugs, Hee Haw, feel free to throw a bone this way if you can!  lol.  Seriously, though great job sizing this thing up and thanks for all the time and effort!

It's gonna come together one of these days for us down here...half full always for me...

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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 07, 2020 9:04 am

12z NAM is consistent
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:15 am

Current wet bulb freezing line (purple).  Air is somewhat dry and dew points are in the low 20's for a lot of folks.  That matters as to how cold the surface gets when the column saturates.  Also matters how cold the 925 mb just above the surface.  This is telling me it'll start as rain for some TTN south.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Wetbul14

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 925mbs10

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:25 am

I would honestly be very surprised if anybody saw more than an inch of wet snow besides maybe NE Penn. Nam is best case scenario but is not supported by other models. Temps are marginal at best and I think NYC metro may see some light accums on cars and grass but thats it.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:20 pm

I concur.  The wet bulb temps are above freezing for most.  The surface temps is 40 IMBY.  Fully saturated my surface would be 34 degrees.  The surface transfer will most likely cool it down a tad more, but going to be very marginal at best.  I will be thrilled to get an inch out of this.

Southerly winds currently to boot.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Wetbul15

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 92510

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Post by Grselig on Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:31 pm

Im 41 in Wayne NJ right now. Hoping for something white! Funny how some winters, an inch is a nuisance, now its a smidgen of hope.
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:19 pm

18z NAM caves
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:14 pm

36/27
Light snow. Temp is wet bulbing quickly. Dropped 3 degrees in 10 minutes and winds switched to NE.

I'd be thrilled with an inch.


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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:39 pm

Cloudy 40* here. Dew Point 26*, so I feel relatively confident once the precipitation starts it will quickly go over to snow (assuming it starts as a brief period of rain at all). Winds NNE here which is the right direction. I'm not expecting anything more than what I woke up to on Monday: Snow covered colder surfaces with a coating to an inch, mainly wet roads.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:42 pm

I have to say, if South Jersey could get cold enough, quick enough, they could see a couple inches because there is a more robust level of precipitation to the south across the Delmarva area. But they are even moreso fighting marginal temps so it probably evens out.
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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:15 pm

NWS Upton calling for as much as 2-4 eastern LI and around an inch in NYC.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:02 pm

31.8/30.2 Moderate snow.

About 1/4" on cold surfaces and just starting to stick on the sidewalk/driveway. Take what i get.

Watch for snow squalls tomorrow too.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:21 pm

Still 37* here, not expecting much as it's been trending south and east. Lucky folks on LI may get a decent amount.

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:11 pm

Snowing pretty good out by me. White rain though. Surface temp just dropped to 37 from 39 over the past 30 mins. Hopefully it thumps and continues to cool the column. Radar is juicy out by me.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 5121b210


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Post by Scullybutcher on Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:23 pm

Snow mixing with rain here
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:35 pm

Actually starting to puke a little snow here. Actually accumulating on colder surface. Started at 39* at about 6:45. Down to 35*

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:45 pm

Leaving Manhattan now. Snowing at the tops of the building but dry at the ground. Air is too dry at the surface. Pretty cool
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Post by dsix85 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:54 pm

In Manorville, grass already covered. Big flakes and coming down hard.

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 7:55 pm

@dsix85 wrote:In Manorville, grass already covered. Big flakes and coming down hard.

Same. Radar looks great. Temps really crashing. Down to 34*

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:01 pm

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 84fb4210
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:06 pm

I'm getting into a nice little band now. Best rates of the storm so far. There's a nice band near Trenton that would really bring out the inner weenie in me. 50 miles probably too far, but I'll watch it.

1/2" OTG.

31.5/30.5 Moderate snow.

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