February 2020 Observations and Discussion

40* with rain moving in. Heading to mid-50s. In other words, of this winter thus far.

Piece of crap slop storm Weds PM-Thursday AM.Now, NWS went from all snow for the Saturday night-Sunday snow to snow/rain on Sunday with a high of 38.Bad pattern has a death grip on our area and we can't catch a break.

Regarding next few days. Biggest threat will be freezing rain on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Snow accumulations probably minimal if anything at all across the board here. GEFS tries to have some backend snow on Friday as the low pulls away. We all know how well that scenario plays out around here.

I have chickweed starting to grow in my yard. It is 56*, can we just get onto spring already?

Tomorrow night and Thursday I am all go for whatever but thursday night into Friday no.  Surgery is sceduled and its going to happen. Raining and it looks like roughly 3 inches of rain over next 3 days, hate it dry and warm please if no cold and snow. I think there could be delays thursday morning, not friday though at least here, looks all rain around and just inland from coast and maybe even further inland than that.

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-052130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.200206T0400Z-200206T1500Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
330 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch and up to one inch of sleet.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest ice and sleet accumulations are
expected across Orange and Putnam counties and far northern
portions of interior southern Connecticut.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

Hit a high here in Fort Lee yesterday around 59.Cloudy, cooler today.Supposed to get maybe an inch of slop in Monroe NY tonight but thankfully go above freezing to melt the garbage.Lee Goldberg downplaying the weekend threat to a "period" of light snow.

GFS has been hinting at this and now NAM is starting to show the departing low bombing out and wrapping snow on its back side. Never a big fan of these back end snows, if they move too fast or don't bomb enough, then you get bupkis. Take with a grain of salt for now...

HeeHaw, thanks for your updates, however ultimately depressing this shell of a season called winter.

Its 39 and I see and hear some pieces of sleet mixed in with my light rain.

If you're a skier get up to The North Country @ Adirondacks or Stowe.  I'm going on 2/14 to Stowe for family visit and can't wait. This low is going to track beautifully for those areas.

Grselig wrote:HeeHaw, thanks for your updates, however ultimately depressing this shell of a season called winter.

Its 39 and I see and hear some pieces of sleet mixed in with my light rain.  

This is 4 bad overall meteorological winters in a row. I'm hoping fortunes change next year.

I see on my IPhone the temps for me are 30 until 10 am tomorrow. Right now, it is 30. I have no idea what upper air temps will be but it looks like snow/slop with a bit of ice. Could be interesting to wake up to.

38° and holding, not expecting any problems here overnight. Just more rain, feeling moldy

heehaw453 wrote:

Grselig wrote:HeeHaw, thanks for your updates, however ultimately depressing this shell of a season called winter.

Its 39 and I see and hear some pieces of sleet mixed in with my light rain.  

This is 4 bad overall meteorological winters in a row.  I'm hoping fortunes change next year.  

Maybe Met winter but that is not a true measure of winter sin e we have started earlier but more so ended later. 16-17 was slightly above N snowwise and 17 -18 was much above normal snow wise , I had 58" here, 22" in March. And the state was AN a snowwise.
I am of the belief that winters run from the first flakes to the last
18-19 sucked like this one.

36° and .22 in the bucket...

The 06Z NAM was really ugly for even for the far north with respect to Friday. Like the storm track is 200 miles west of where it was yesterday. Wow. Other modeling too is significantly west. What was a lock yesterday for the skiers. Hmm.

In other words folks it's not just us... I'll be interested in watching this one for potential ski conditions though.

amugs wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Grselig wrote:HeeHaw, thanks for your updates, however ultimately depressing this shell of a season called winter.

Its 39 and I see and hear some pieces of sleet mixed in with my light rain.  

This is 4 bad overall meteorological winters in a row.  I'm hoping fortunes change next year.  

Maybe Met winter but that is not a true measure of winter sin e we have started earlier but more so ended later. 16-17 was slightly above N snowwise and 17 -18 was much above normal snow wise , I had 58" here, 22" in March. And the state was AN a snowwise.
I am of the belief that winters run from the first flakes to the last
18-19 sucked like this one.

I'd have to agree with Mugs on this one.

You can't really call 2017/18 a bad winter or even a bad met winter. I do hate that term as I've always considered Thanksgiving through the last week of March winter in much of this forum but NOAA labels December through February Met winter for all so I understand the reference.

2017/18 I had 83.5 inches of snow, granted 50 of it fell from March 2nd through April 2nd, but December was 12.1, January 12.7 and February 9.1, I'd kill for that distribution right now. NYC had a similar distribution 7.7 in December , 11.2 in January, 4.9 in Feb and 17.1 in March and April. Temperature wise December was 2-3 degrees below normal, January 1.0° below normal and March 2-3 degrees below normal. It was only February that was above normal that season although 6-7 degrees above normal but we all made up for February with a historic March and nice season ending first week of April snow storm.

This year and last year torches and low snowfall a horrible combination.

2016/17 decent in the HV snowfall wise, I had 70.7 inches helped again by a great March with Valentines Day storm of 20.8 inches, NYC only 7.6 from that storm there were mixing issues on the coast and dry slots. NYC snowfall for season was 30.2 which is right near their historical average. Temperature wise December was normal, January and February both 6-8 degrees above normal so I can see your point about that Met winter. March again saved the day with below normal temps and as mentioned above normal snowfall.

You did leave out 2015/16 which was a horrible winter, saved in some peoples minds by one great Blizzard in January that dropped 25-35 inches of snow on NYC and nearby surrounding suburbs. December was the warmest in history beating the old record by 7° and over 13° above normal for the month. Just unprecedented and hopefully never repeated. January 2° above normal February 4° above normal and March 6° above normal. NYC ended up with 32.8 inches of snow, which is 3 inches above normal so some people tend to label this as a good winter, forgetting that 27.5 of those inches came from the one storm and there was only 5.3 inches of snow when you take out that storm. In the HV I received only 24.9 inches for the season. Combined that with the horrible warmth that winter and you can easily say 4 of the last 5 winters including this one have not been good, despite a couple of them having average or somewhat above average snowfall.

You know the pattern really sucks when I go on and on about something like this. Nothing else to talk about.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

amugs wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Grselig wrote:HeeHaw, thanks for your updates, however ultimately depressing this shell of a season called winter.

Its 39 and I see and hear some pieces of sleet mixed in with my light rain.  

This is 4 bad overall meteorological winters in a row.  I'm hoping fortunes change next year.  

Maybe Met winter but that is not a true measure of winter sin e we have started earlier but more so ended later. 16-17 was slightly above N snowwise and 17 -18 was much above normal snow wise , I had 58" here, 22" in March. And the state was AN a snowwise.
I am of the belief that winters run from the first flakes to the last
18-19 sucked like this one.

I'd have to agree with Mugs on this one.

You can't really call 2017/18 a bad winter or even a bad met winter. I do hate that term as I've always considered Thanksgiving through the last week of March winter in much of this forum but NOAA labels December through February Met winter for all so I understand the reference.

2017/18 I had 83.5 inches of snow, granted 50 of it fell from March 2nd through April 2nd, but December was 12.1, January 12.7 and February 9.1, I'd kill for that distribution right now. NYC had a similar distribution 7.7 in December , 11.2 in January, 4.9 in Feb and 17.1 in March and April. Temperature wise December was 2-3 degrees below normal, January 1.0° below normal and March 2-3 degrees below normal. It was only February that was above normal that season although 6-7 degrees above normal but we all made up for February with a historic March and nice season ending first week of April snow storm.

This year and last year torches and low snowfall a horrible combination.

2016/17 decent in the HV snowfall wise, I had 70.7 inches helped again by a great March with Valentines Day storm of 20.8 inches, NYC only 7.6 from that storm there were mixing issues on the coast and dry slots. NYC snowfall for season was 30.2 which is right near their historical average. Temperature wise December was normal, January and February both 6-8 degrees above normal so I can see your point about that Met winter. March again saved the day with below normal temps and as mentioned above normal snowfall.

You did leave out 2015/16 which was a horrible winter, saved in some peoples minds by one great Blizzard in January that dropped 25-35 inches of snow on NYC and nearby surrounding suburbs. December was the warmest in history beating the old record by 7° and over 13° above normal for the month. Just unprecedented and hopefully never repeated. January 2° above normal February 4° above normal and March 6° above normal. NYC ended up with 32.8 inches of snow, which is 3 inches above normal so some people tend to label this as a good winter, forgetting that 27.5 of those inches came from the one storm and there was only 5.3 inches of snow when you take out that storm. In the HV I received only 24.9 inches for the season. Combined that with the horrible warmth that winter and you can easily say 4 of the last 5 winters including this one have not been good, despite a couple of them having average or somewhat above average snowfall.

You know the pattern really sucks when I go on and on about something like this. Nothing else to talk about.

Thanks Mugs for pointing this out.  And CP great perspective and insight which exemplifies what the board is all about!  Highly appreciated.

I will take snow anytime of the year, heck May if i could get it, but i like it DJF from the perspective of how long it lasts.  Normally outside those months the sun evaporates it rather quickly and it's gone in a day or sometimes same day depending on cloud cover.  I appreciate it regardless though.

My statement was sloppy a bit and let me say that 2017/18 was not bad .  I average about 35" IMBY and elevation helps me out a bit.  2017/18 I got over 70" of snow and 40" was in March.  Most would say that is a good winter.  DJF was average with regard to snowfall and temps as I had about 30" during those months and near normal temps.  The periodicity of the snowfall and depth consistency was a bit disappointing.

The last good DJF IMBY was 2014/15 when i received ~55".  The cold was consistent and deep, the periodicity of the snow was frequent, and the snow depth remained good for a large chunk of those months.  

The last superior winter IMBY was 2013/2014 when i received ~72".  It was like 2014/15 only more snow.

I will rate them IMBY going back to to the last 2 outstanding winters.  I think this aligns well with your thoughts of 4 out of 5 not so good.

2019/20 - Bottom 3% so far - Very below average (top 5 ratter is looking likely)
2018/19 - Bottom 10% - Very below average
2017/18 - 50% - Average
2016/17 - Bottom 35% - Below Average
2015/16 - Bottom 10% - Very below average (would have top 5 ratter status if not for the blizzard).
2014/15 - Top 20% - Well above average
2013/14 - Top 5% - Well above average (one of the top 5 winters)

Today no school delays here in Orange county but 30 miles west, different story. Some delays and closings. However, while I saw all rain outside with just a token amount of sleet, this morning I see more icing on the trees. Pines are starting to droop and I walked the trash outside only to find the blacktop slippery as hell. I took the lawn route.  What surprises me is the icing. I thought it was all over and had missed us.  

Yes the weather this winter has been dreary.  What was it I said one time...something like "The spring sucked. The summer sucked. The fall sucked. The winter sucked". We need some razzamatazz. Doc, you got any laughing gas left from your days as a dentist? Pipe some into this winter weather so we can have a laugh.

dkodgis wrote:Today no school delays here in Orange county but 30 miles west, different story. Some delays and closings. However, while I saw all rain outside with just a token amount of sleet, this morning I see more icing on the trees. Pines are starting to droop and I walked the trash outside only to find the blacktop slippery as hell. I took the lawn route.  What surprises me is the icing. I thought it was all over and had missed us.  

Yes the weather this winter has been dreary.  What was it I said one time...something like "The spring sucked. The summer sucked. The fall sucked. The winter sucked". We need some razzamatazz. Doc, you got any laughing gas left from your days as a dentist? Pipe some into this winter weather so we can have a laugh.

Damian, you want gas, pull my finger,LOL.

Image-1.png

If this is true, then this is back end snow tomorrow for interior areas. Low is really bombing and wrapping cold air around itself. Note the moisture too. It's extremely moist from 10,000 feet down to the surface. Again, not saying this is reality, but something to watch for. A true bombing storm can do that and this one looks like it is a bomb.

Really have a hard time believing any back end snow in HV besides some snow showers although NE Penn may get in on some of the fun as should north of I90.

The most exciting part of this winter (so far).
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
337 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
071100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0004.200207T1800Z-200208T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
337 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

NAM is in its wheel house now.  I usually doubt back end snows and still do here IMBY.  But this is beast and maybe dynamic enough for a band to wrap around.  I think NEPA is really in the game for a nice deformation band.

45 mph gusts.  Would be really cool with a band of snow...