Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

amugs wrote:He hopefully stays off the coast but the EC needs to pay close attention. There is anamolously warm waters pff the coast up to NE, low shear and limited dry air intrusion. He has a cieling for strengthening but even a high end (Floyd) trop storm would be dangerous for the Middle Atlantic and NE.

Floyd and Irene this storm reminds me of, both gave us a whippin.

ENS say EC runner

GFS ensembles are west, looking like the EURO ensembles

Interesting how the EPS has much stronger ensembles headed this way than the GFS emsembles do, usually the Euro is the one that is more conservative.

Levi video says that carolinas midatlantic and new england need to pay close attention and that Isaias could strengthen more after passing FL if conditions are right, the jet coming from the west is also going to play a major part as it is strong and will have a big impact on steering. He even used my term that this will be a nail biter over next several days, at least we arent talking about watching this for 14 days. He also says that the storm mainly skirted the northern coast of DR which helped him maintain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=696&v=PO150o2pNw0&feature=emb_logo

WOW HH finding up to 100mph flight level winds, and they are flying pretty low....i think we have a hurricane as many many readings 75-100mph. Found 77mph surface winds.

jmanley32 wrote:WOW HH finding up to 100mph flight level winds, and they are flying pretty low....i think we have a hurricane as many many readings 75-100mph. Found 77mph surface winds.

Yeah, just saw this. I expect a special advisory soon from the NHC as hunters have found the closed circulation offshore of Hispaniola with pressure falling.. I think we’ve already got a hurricane on our hands.

We have hurricane Isais!!

11:40 PM EDT Thu Jul 30

Location: 20.3°N 72.1°W

Moving: NW at 18 mph

Min pressure: 995 mb

Max sustained: 80 mph

This storm is go be a monster just watch and I think carolinas on north are in danger of a bad hit

And there it is.

Expect more surprises from this one.

SoulSingMG wrote:And there it is.

Expect more surprises from this one.

Yup, my gut saus this hits high end cat 2 maybe major, dorian did this same sudden intensifying. And this is way ahead of the most primo area.

GFS coming in much stronger

Sanchize06 wrote:GFS coming in much stronger

yup 975mb appraod carolinas versus 18z 990mb.

wow gfs...

landfal leastern long island cat 1/2.

Wow at the GFS, stronger and still another tick closer. Ensembles should be interesting, would imagine a lot of one's riding the coast with a Long Island landfall

Sanchize06 wrote:Wow at the GFS, stronger and still another tick closer. Ensembles should be interesting, would imagine a lot of one's riding the coast with a Long Island landfall

Amazing how compact it’s being depicted as too.

Sanchize06 wrote:Wow at the GFS, stronger and still another tick closer. Ensembles should be interesting, would imagine a lot of one's riding the coast with a Long Island landfall

this is looking possible to be a RI, Mass crush job, and TS impacts for our area. Of course that could change with any deviation west, rb's track idea is not far off except most models are showing a landfall between LI and cape cod right now.

0z GEFS are a bit west it looks like. Almost all over the Jersey Shore and LI. 0z Hmon also a lot stronger and more West

Good lord.

SoulSingMG wrote:Good lord.  

Pretty much matches the GEFS, we'll see if the NHC moves that cone west at the 5am update

HMON

2am: Winds still at 80 mph, pressure down a bit to 992mb

Wow lots of unexpected. And the euro is much stronger at HR 24. All the models seem to be getting a hold of this and this west movement spells big impacts if it happens. Be first hurricane in a long time not counting sandy.

Euro doesn't have the strength of the other 0z models, but does have the west path. Would imagine it goes over Jersey shore/LI

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:
I always enjoy (obviously I use “enjoy” within the proper context, and understand the implications) watching model battles, and this is no different. The global suites are clearly well on the western periphery of the hurricane model suite, and for once I actually agree with the NHC entirely in following the hurricane model guidance. But it’s going to be interesting to see which group wins, as I know I’ve seen global models outperform the hurricane models quite frequently with both track and intensity forecasts of tropical entities. With a rapidly decreasing lead time, this could lead to some pretty dangerous situations with little time for preparation, if the global again prove correct.

are you implying it's possible we see some more direct impacts closer than 150 miles offshore? Or are you talking Carolinas? I agree hurricane models usually lose out. I hate to ask a possibly long winded question but in layman's terms why do you agree with the hurricane models? And now come to think of it the 12z did go more east more in line with your initial thinking but also plenty of time for changes and I'm sure there will be. Also do we see that 310 mile Winfield shrink as he comes up the coast as models seem to show? Otherwise it wouldn't be hard to get ts impacts.

Sorry for the delayed reply, but I’ve been working all night lol maybe I should have been clearer with my explanation. The 150-mile range was given with respect to where I think the center of circulation will be. So, I think (based on yesterday’s analysis) that the center would likely stay offshore, but pass within 150 miles of any point on the coast. For example, when it’s passing the Georgia coast, it could be 150 miles offshore, but while passing OBX and Cape Cod could be as little as one mile offshore. The picture that I followed up with showing the red line was my approximated, visualized track of the storm’s center based on that same analysis. None of that represented the scope of the impacts (size of the wind field, for example). To answer your first question, then, yes; I think we will see some more direct impacts closer than 150 miles offshore, mainly for coastal sections. Do I think we see hurricane strength? No, but I can’t lie and say that even though my forecast said upper-tier tropical storm/low-end Cat-1, I was expecting potential Cat-1 effects this far north, which some guidance is indicating.

To your second question, I have been favoring the mean of the hurricane models because they fit, independently, much better with what my analysis produced than the globals (GFS, EC, etc.). I don’t look at the models and make a forecast (perse‘). I look at the overall pattern and certain intricacies of it, extrapolate it in my mind, and then blend the various aspects of whichever models fit what I envision. So, in this case, I explicitly said that I was equally weighting the GEFS and EPS hemispheric evolution, but lending more credence to a blend of the EPS/GEPS when it came to the progression/strength of the Atlantic ridge (during the first period) before blending a secondary blend of the GEFS/EPS depiction after the first period. Then, based on that, I set my track forecast up, and then intensity, which both happen to match the mean of the hurricane suite much more closely. But I never pick a model to make a forecast. I make a forecast, then pick the model(s) that best depict(s) what that forecast is. Does that make sense?

Lastly, I don’t think we necessarily see the wind field shrink so much as reorient itself so that it’s more uniform around the center of circulation. Instead of having it extend 300 miles on one side and 5 on the other, I think it shifts closer toward equilibrium.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:
I always enjoy (obviously I use “enjoy” within the proper context, and understand the implications) watching model battles, and this is no different. The global suites are clearly well on the western periphery of the hurricane model suite, and for once I actually agree with the NHC entirely in following the hurricane model guidance. But it’s going to be interesting to see which group wins, as I know I’ve seen global models outperform the hurricane models quite frequently with both track and intensity forecasts of tropical entities. With a rapidly decreasing lead time, this could lead to some pretty dangerous situations with little time for preparation, if the global again prove correct.

are you implying it's possible we see some more direct impacts closer than 150 miles offshore? Or are you talking Carolinas? I agree hurricane models usually lose out. I hate to ask a possibly long winded question but in layman's terms why do you agree with the hurricane models? And now come to think of it the 12z did go more east more in line with your initial thinking but also plenty of time for changes and I'm sure there will be. Also do we see that 310 mile Winfield shrink as he comes up the coast as models seem to show? Otherwise it wouldn't be hard to get ts impacts.

Sorry for the delayed reply, but I’ve been working all night lol maybe I should have been clearer with my explanation. The 150-mile range was given with respect to where I think the center of circulation will be. So, I think (based on yesterday’s analysis) that the center would likely stay offshore, but pass within 150 miles of any point on the coast. For example, when it’s passing the Georgia coast, it could be 150 miles offshore, but while passing OBX and Cape Cod could be as little as one mile offshore. The picture that I followed up with showing the red line was my approximated, visualized track of the storm’s center based on that same analysis. None of that represented the scope of the impacts (size of the wind field, for example). To answer your first question, then, yes; I think we will see some more direct impacts closer than 150 miles offshore, mainly for coastal sections. Do I think we see hurricane strength? No, but I can’t lie and say that even though my forecast said upper-tier tropical storm/low-end Cat-1, I was expecting potential Cat-1 effects this far north, which some guidance is indicating.

To your second question, I have been favoring the mean of the hurricane models because they fit, independently, much better with what my analysis produced than the globals (GFS, EC, etc.). I don’t look at the models and make a forecast (perse‘). I look at the overall pattern and certain intricacies of it, extrapolate it in my mind, and then blend the various aspects of whichever models fit what I envision. So, in this case, I explicitly said that I was equally weighting the GEFS and EPS hemispheric evolution, but lending more credence to a blend of the EPS/GEPS when it came to the progression/strength of the Atlantic ridge (during the first period) before blending a secondary blend of the GEFS/EPS depiction after the first period. Then, based on that, I set my track forecast up, and then intensity, which both happen to match the mean of the hurricane suite much more closely. But I never pick a model to make a forecast. I make a forecast, then pick the model(s) that best depict(s) what that forecast is. Does that make sense?

Lastly, I don’t think we necessarily see the wind field shrink so much as reorient itself so that it’s more uniform around the center of circulation. Instead of having it extend 300 miles on one side and 5 on the other, I think it shifts closer toward equilibrium.

Got it all, and that last part is not good especially if it comes as you said 1 mile offshore lol, that would really be splitting hairs. I def see a west nudge with the runs but so far it has stuck within your 150 mile range except many models even the hurricane sho a landfall from NYC to cape cod, the navgem and ukmet being the furthest west.