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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:01 am

Also noted the global and hurricane model sgetti came a lot further west than the past 3 or so runs.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 09l_tr10

NHC has him getting to cat 2...and maintains to 65mph past cape cod.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 20.9N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:40 am

Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

Yes you do I expect hourly updates...lol jk, what are your thoughts?

meanwhile oh boy hwrf....ray your following the hurricane models.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:18 am

EURO Ensembles - oh boy

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 2FAE2E80-E245-4592-B470-7FEFB1CF9EF8.thumb.png.11c2eadf0587a6999ada5574fc55d78e

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 427CA9C4-42B1-454D-AA56-0379DF02CBD9.thumb.png.62f79f40877b532a84cd34860bbc33f3


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Post by DAYBLAZER on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:25 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles - oh boy

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 2FAE2E80-E245-4592-B470-7FEFB1CF9EF8.thumb.png.11c2eadf0587a6999ada5574fc55d78e

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 427CA9C4-42B1-454D-AA56-0379DF02CBD9.thumb.png.62f79f40877b532a84cd34860bbc33f3


Hi Frank-- long time no talk. Hope all is well. Just FYI the links are showing up as broken for me-- no images. May just be an issue on my end though.

Regardless, this one has my attention. The similarities it shares with Irene are hard to ignore.
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:37 am

Latest 06z Euro is out to lunch.  Initiated Isaias at 1000mb.  Its at least down to 990.  Stalls it over S Fla and drifts into the E GOM.  That soln is not really on the table IMO right now.  I still am not looking at the forecast beyond the Cape at this point.  2-3days out will change therefore what happens beyond that, which is when it reaches our latitude, will likely drastically change at this pooint.  Def has my attention though.

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Post by Grselig on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:46 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

Just when you thought it was safe to ignore the weather, it pulled you back in.
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:59 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

Yes you do I expect hourly updates...lol jk, what are your thoughts?

meanwhile oh boy hwrf....ray your following the hurricane models.

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Just remember there are still pretty drastic differences in exact track and intensity inside 48hrs between models. Let alone in 4-5 days from now. There is a fair amount of shear to contend with on both GFS and Euro on the NW flank during this time frame, and I’m even seeing a dry air threat showing up on the euro and to a degree the GFS as well, between about 600-500mb on the SW flank That could play a role in limiting its intensification. Still a lot of details to iron out right out in front of us let along what’s happening out and around the bend.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:08 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

Yes you do I expect hourly updates...lol jk, what are your thoughts?

meanwhile oh boy hwrf....ray your following the hurricane models.

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I liked THE MEAN of the Hurricane models, not just HWRF lol though I’d like to see them shift about 50 miles east from where they are, I really like the latest intensity forecast from them.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:09 am

Oh I know scott was just showing the one run, and umm they only found 50-maybe 60mph winds in isaias this morning, that was short lived hurricane. what happened? pressure 995mb.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:11 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

Yes you do I expect hourly updates...lol jk, what are your thoughts?

meanwhile oh boy hwrf....ray your following the hurricane models.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 110

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 210

I liked THE MEAN of the Hurricane models, not just HWRF lol though I’d like to see them shift about 50 miles east from where they are, I really like the latest intensity forecast from them.
well it also depends on how much land he traverses before coming out on or around midatlantic NJ, that would change the intensity a lot. of course I know you look at them and take a blend.
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:12 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

Yes you do I expect hourly updates...lol jk, what are your thoughts?

meanwhile oh boy hwrf....ray your following the hurricane models.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 110

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 210

Just remember there are still pretty drastic differences in exact track and intensity inside 48hrs between models. Let alone in 4-5 days from now. There is a fair amount of shear to contend with on both GFS and Euro on the NW flank during this time frame, and I’m even seeing a dry air threat showing up  on the euro and to a degree the GFS as well, between about 600-500mb on the SW flank That could play a role in limiting its intensification. Still a lot of details to iron out right out in front of us let along what’s happening out and around the bend.

Great points! Although I’m pretty sure I didn’t specifically mention this earlier, this is one reason (or I guess technically two reasons) why I don’t buy the stronger envelope of solutions.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:16 am

@DAYBLAZER wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:EURO Ensembles - oh boy

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 2FAE2E80-E245-4592-B470-7FEFB1CF9EF8.thumb.png.11c2eadf0587a6999ada5574fc55d78e

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 427CA9C4-42B1-454D-AA56-0379DF02CBD9.thumb.png.62f79f40877b532a84cd34860bbc33f3


Hi Frank-- long time no talk. Hope all is well. Just FYI the links are showing up as broken for me-- no images. May just be an issue on my end though.

Regardless, this one has my attention. The similarities it shares with Irene are hard to ignore.
Yeah no images eager to see them, scott do you have access? Yes I have been saying irene all this while.
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Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:17 am

12z hurricane models another tick west. Most members of the 6z GEFS actually go over Florida, west again. Weaker as well as it goes over all the land

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:18 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

Yes you do I expect hourly updates...lol jk, what are your thoughts?

meanwhile oh boy hwrf....ray your following the hurricane models.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 110

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 210

I liked THE MEAN of the Hurricane models, not just HWRF lol though I’d like to see them shift about 50 miles east from where they are, I really like the latest intensity forecast from them.
well it also depends on how much land he traverses before coming out on or around midatlantic NJ, that would change the intensity a lot. of course I know you look at them and take a blend.

Partially true, but the weaker the system, the less of a factor this becomes *if other factors are still supportive of maintenance/intensification*. For example, all things equal, it usually takes a lot longer for a tropical storm to weaken into a remnant low than it does for a Cat-5 to drop to a tropical storm once over land. Why? Because the stronger the storm, the more perfect conditions need to be in order for it to maintain intensity/strengthen, and any land interaction is less than optimal for a strong storm with an established core.

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Post by rb924119 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:21 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh I know scott was just showing the one run, and umm they only found 50-maybe 60mph winds in isaias this morning, that was short lived hurricane. what happened? pressure 995mb.

Very Happy Wink See Scott’s recent post regarding shear/dry air plus the points I made in my discussion regarding decreasing low-level convergence lol matching my intensity prog nicely ATM (fingers crossed!)

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:27 am

Oh boy euro ensembles is right got this from someone...

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 12 Al09_210 got a bunch of 60-70 knot in there too as they approach area, cat 1 possible, but I say more likely TS IF it gets close.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:57 am

11am still hurricane I'm surprised. 75mph. Cone shifted west a bit. In line with hurricane models still east of euro ensembles.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like I need to pay closer attention to hurricane Isaias....

so are you going to be our hurricane hunter??
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:07 pm

GFS super close to a landfall but just offshore, doesnt miss Long island landfal lthough, weak atm imo i think he will be a bit stronger but we shall see. that was interesting ray that a TS can manage to hold over land more than a strong hurricane, i know a strong hurricane weakens but usually not super rapidly.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:40 pm

Holy crap west hwrf!!

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:55 pm

2:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 31

Location: 22.2°N 75.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:31 pm

Everything is shifting massively west, thinking it shifts back east still and puts us in a very precarious position.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:54 pm

where is everyone lol
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Post by gigs68 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:11 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:where is everyone lol

Probably outside in their yard pruning those vulnerable trees
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