NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Page 13 of 19 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14 ... 19  Next

Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by amugs on Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:18 pm

The NHC cone is unsettling for all from the Carolina's to Cape Cod for sure. I have told all that they must keep a watchful on Isaias since we have seen some RI as they get close to land with the anomalous warm waters of 80* are in our coastal areas. Will it take a Faye like track ??? Will it be on teh western periphery or eastern? It all remains to be seen but the one things is certain the coast will feel affects from this so Mom and all others need to have a plan in place cause Tuesday is not far away.
We have time to see what the ULL and the WAR does - if stronger further west it pushes this if he remains a CAT 1 or Strong TS, any weakness is where he will travel - path of least resistance as is always by nature and man!
Bernie said last night and again today this is a problem for teh Carolina's NC through Cape Cod and is worried for teh coastal regions.

5PM Update by NHC should be interesting

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10847
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:56 pm

Yup mugs, looking interesting and a bit exciting, though i do hope its not too bad.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:59 pm

Cone shifted significantly west. Still same intensity. But NHC says a eye is starting.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by dkodgis on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:01 pm

A slight eastern track projection now?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1253
Reputation : 96
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:04 pm

@dkodgis wrote:A slight eastern track projection now?
Not really, the wind field prediction shifted west and TS is right off midatlantic
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:06 pm

2pm cone

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 17524110

5pm cone, west shift.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 5pm_7_10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:10 pm

Unfort or fort, depending on your perspective, Isaias will likely cont to struggle to intensify much and may even weaken back down to a TS given its current environment.  As I mentioned earlier this am two main factors at play.  

First is the shear.  The images below are valid as of 5pm.  As you can see by the current conditions in the upper level, between 300-200mb the wind direction on the W, SW, & S is in towards the system creating shear and a capping mechanism for which low level rising motion(convection) is limited due to upper level convergence; whereas, on the SE, E, & NE side the upper level air is moving away.  Moving away leads to upper level divergence and low level convergence enhancing convection.  

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Ecmwf-44
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Ecmwf-45


Next is the dry air layer I mentioned.  When you look at the soundings to the systems SW and NW it begins around 600mb  and extends upwards vertically.  Here is the 500mb relative humidiuty maps outlining just how much dry air there is.  

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Ecmwf-46
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Gfs-de14


You can actually see the dry air and the shear on the WV sat loop pretty clearly.  

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Goes16_wv-mid_09L_202007311857_lat22.2-lon284.8

Isaias will cont to struggle with these conditions until it reaches the area I have circled.  How much intensity can it hold on to, does it come close or move over SE Fla, does it weaken or even strengthen slightly all will determine th next move and how it begins to interact with the trough over the CONUS in the next 48-72hrs.  Still plenty of uncertainty ahead but I am pretty certain it wont undergo RI over the next 2 days.  

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Ecmwf-47

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6500
Reputation : 280
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:20 pm

Nope and thats NHC thinking too, but you never know with these storms but everything you explained scott does look to deter. Still a 65mph TS up here will def wreak some havok, Irene was a 70mph TS. The last storm we had did not seem to have much wind with it (forgot its name) so depending on track and intensity is everything, along with what you discussed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 22.6N 75.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 23.9N 77.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 25.4N 78.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 28.3N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 30.0N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 32.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 45.4N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:10 pm

One thing to remember when it begins its ascent in latitude and once it interacts with the trough we could get baroclinic enhancement of winds and moisture. In addition there could be a jet streak that might further enhance convection and strengthening especially if the core is over water. Regardless it’s definitely something to track.


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Aug 06, 2020 3:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6500
Reputation : 280
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:26 pm

@sroc4 wrote:One thing to remember when it begins its ascent in latitude and once it interacts with the trough we could get baroclinic enhancement of winds and moisture. In addition there could be a jet streak that might further enhance convection and strengthening especially if the core is over water. Regardless it’s definitely something to track.
Hybrid type deal? Is that what happened with Irene? I think sge just weakened as she road the coast. NHC shows weakening but your saying he could actually strengthen?  Yes at least we have something to track, oh and NHC is now talk bout more than offshore impacts in the areas HWO.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:33 pm

Hearing FL meterologists are saying he is intensifying quickly and pressures are dropping, I am watch recon mission and not seeing all that impressive winds though enough to maintain 75mph hurricane. He is not at all impressive looking, a scattered mess and scott as you said you can clearly see where that dry air is getting in.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:54 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:where is everyone lol

Working!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4180
Reputation : 59
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 58
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:57 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:where is everyone lol

Working!

at 7? yeah i forgot bout that thing called work, sadly i got laid off june 26th due to covid...hasn't been easy, have find new job which is near impossible for my level.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:03 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:where is everyone lol

Working!

at 7? yeah i forgot bout that thing called work, sadly i got laid off june 26th due to covid...hasn't been easy, have find new job which is near impossible for my level.

You posted that at 4 pm, so yeah still working. Now, happy hour and the Mets game.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4180
Reputation : 59
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 58
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:07 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:where is everyone lol

Working!

at 7? yeah i forgot bout that thing called work, sadly i got laid off june 26th due to covid...hasn't been easy, have find new job which is near impossible for my level.

You posted that at 4 pm, so yeah still working. Now, happy hour and the Mets game.
Cool. how does it look with no people? No drinks for me, i gained way to much weight during covid trying cut down on calories. Enjoy, we will keep track of the storm. Your right i wrote that at 4 lol, i am in such disarray.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by aiannone on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:15 pm

Just finished work myself. Looking forward to tracking this. Well defined steering currents such as the Bermuda high and trough go out west make it almost certain we will be having some impacts, seems to be just a matter of how much land interaction before it makes it’s closest approach to us. Will be fun to track!
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3868
Reputation : 82
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:17 pm

Weird the hurricane models are coming in super slow like almost a day apart from 12z.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:56 pm

8pm: Strengthening a bit now, pressure down to 987mb and winds back up to 80mph

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 966
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:04 pm

yep and hurricane models are way inland, kinda crazy far, if true ray you were off by 150miles in wrong direction ha jk, i think it will correct eeast a bit but may actually be on land.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:36 pm

he is really gaining a ton of deep cnvection over the center (dark area) and you can see a eye on radar, its just coud filled.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by sroc4 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:01 pm

Levi has his latest video out echoing some of the ideas posted earlier.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6500
Reputation : 280
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:29 pm

0z ICON just misses Florida compared to 18z which made landfall. That small difference will make a big difference to the strength of Isaias when it gets up this way

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 966
Reputation : 21
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:19 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:0z ICON just misses Florida compared to 18z which made landfall. That small difference will make a big difference to the strength of Isaias when it gets up this way
yes and you didn't mention what the icon does after that which is pretty crazy in terms of wind and rain impacts for entire east coast including us. Same thing with hwrf it's still coming in but it makes full landfall on Florida while hmon stays over water and is 981mb headed into Carolinas. IMO I don't think he ends up having a full impact with Florida maybe even pretty far offshore. We have see when that turn starts.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:23 am

Wow I think 00z HMON is pretty much a wcs with this one 985mb cat 1 into central long Island staying just off the coast from delmarva north giving him less time to weaken. Wow we get battered in that run. It's much faster than 18z too. The 11pm cone placement dot is also directly where hmon makes landfall and has been leading me to wonder if they are leaning heavily on that model.

Update: HWRF is well inland but still packs a big punch with heave heavy rains and what looks be about high end TS force winds, last frame hr 93 is literally over westchester NY, dead center.

HWRF para (what is that?) is nearly identical to HMON with a 985mb cat 1 into LI, but hits pretty much all of us. Seems like the hurricane models have been very consistant unlike the regular models.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 13 Empty Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:59 am


2:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 1
Location: 23.5°N 76.7°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16750
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Page 13 of 19 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14 ... 19  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum