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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:35 am

Check this out, Euro ensembles with wind levels at certain pts. these do not look good for us some are cat 1 and mid level at that. You can zoom in and out its really cool.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/799-w-396-n/2020073112-240.html

00z euro also does not make landfall on FL oh boy.
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Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:42 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow I think 00z HMON is pretty much a wcs with this one 985mb cat 1 into central long Island staying just off the coast from delmarva north giving him less time to weaken. Wow we get battered in that run. It's much faster than 18z too. The 11pm cone placement dot is also directly where hmon makes landfall and has been leading me to wonder if they are leaning heavily on that model.

Update: HWRF is well inland but still packs a big punch with heave heavy rains and what looks be about high end TS force winds, last frame hr 93 is literally over westchester NY, dead center.

HWRF para (what is that?) is nearly identical to HMON with a 985mb cat 1 into LI, but hits pretty much all of us.  Seems like the hurricane models have been very consistant unlike the regular models.

Yeah the HMON was noticeably east of it's 18z which allows for strengthening. That today will be the biggest thing to look for. If it stays just enough offshore of Florida, could be a cat 1 up here compared to a tropical storm

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Post by phil155 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:21 am

currently the storms looks to be a bit more ragged and that it has begun to take on more of a northerly movement. I could be wrong but just looking at the ir over at tt and that is how it looked to me but I am far from a pro

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:26 am

It looks like rain and flooding will be the primary concern. Current guidance shows enough land interaction so that it’s a weak tropical storm or depression by the time it’s at our latitude. But man, 3-4+ inches of rain in flood prone NNJ is...not great.

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Post by Nyi1058 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:45 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:It looks like rain and flooding will be the primary concern. Current guidance shows enough land interaction so that it’s a weak tropical storm or depression by the time it’s at our latitude. But man, 3-4+ inches of rain in flood prone NNJ is...not great.

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thank you for the update frank Thumbs up. As well as all of
You guys that are tracking this . Living on Long Island and Having a summer family home
In Montauk has me very concerned . Appreciate any updates you guys come across .

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:06 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:It looks like rain and flooding will be the primary concern. Current guidance shows enough land interaction so that it’s a weak tropical storm or depression by the time it’s at our latitude. But man, 3-4+ inches of rain in flood prone NNJ is...not great.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 14 Gfs_apcpn_neus_16
really? Even though the wind prog for the pt up here is 65mph storm? So your cut that in half. I really am in the epicenter of rain 3 to 5 it looks like
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:26 am

Current cone, seems to have shifted a tiny bit to the east, not sure why models continue to be pretty far west but not far off from the landfall in NI it shows as a 60mph TS.

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rain is certainly going tobe a problem 4-6 inches yikes, any wind we may see is go be compounded by muddy ground. Though its been so dry most may run off.

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HWRF is impressive 987mb:

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HMON is also impressive a bit more offshore, 987mb, insane rain and moderate to high end TS wind.
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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 14 Hmon_010






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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:29 am

Reading he is pretty ragged right now and i misspoke the point on cone is now 60mph. GFS and Euro on are on the weak end 1002mb or so so Frank if you go by the global models yeah he would be just a rain maker but RB said he preferred the hurricane models on intensity and track, so not sure if he still feels that way. Ray any updates?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:40 am

sgetti models really coming to a pretty good agreement.

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Post by sabamfa on Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:56 am

When will there be a better idea on timing and impacts for NNJ, particularly Morris County? Thinking of possibly letting my staff work from home depending on what is going to happen.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:56 pm

Probably tomorrow or Monday as he gets closer to the EC. As of right now they have him between a 60mph ts and 50 mph ts on its path by the area. Subject to change of course in either direction. He has weakened to barely a hurricane and looks miserable on sattelite but NHC says he still has a decent structure surprisingly. Doubt they will need to go home early heavy rain and potentially strong winds but rain mainly the biggest impact with wpc currently showing 4 to 6 inches in a fairly short period.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:02 pm

He actually looks much better on sattelite hi res than infrared. You can clearly see the spin he is fairly well organized.
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Post by sabamfa on Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Probably tomorrow or Monday as he gets closer to the EC. As of right now they have him between a 60mph ts and 50 mph ts on its path by the area. Subject to change of course in either direction. He has weakened to barely a hurricane and looks miserable on sattelite but NHC says he still has a decent structure surprisingly. Doubt they will need to go home early heavy rain and potentially strong winds but rain mainly the biggest impact with wpc currently showing 4 to 6 inches in a fairly short period.

Yeah, my biggest concern is the heavy rain. Office is located off RT 287 in NJ, in a very flood prone area on 287. Don’t want people stuck having to try to find alternate ways home. 287 would definitely not be an option in that much rain in a short period and everyone needs to use it.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:24 pm

Wow hh aren't finding but depression winds. He is completely decoupled and looks like he go be dead. Mega fail by all models and nhc except cmc!!
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:40 pm

He is completely decoupled likely the shear and winds are still there but dissipating a lot there's still very good low level spin so he has a chance if convection can start to refire. Otherwise this is a very unexpected turn events though not completely impossible.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:53 pm

70mph ts expected to restrengthen overnight. Slowed to 10mph that will also have big implications if he avoids Florida. Could gain a lot but this prolly pushes any impacts out till Thursday now ugh. This is turning into a 7 to 10 day tracking.
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Post by phil155 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:06 pm

Looks like some convection is starting to fire but the storm does not look healthy overall. Will be very interesting to see how it develops and where it goes as none of the models( that I am aware of) saw it degrade like it did today.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:12 pm

Cone has zeroed in on a very close pass to nj and looks like a landfall along long Island is possible now pronged be 60moh ts up here.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:15 pm

I think if he misses FL will be his best shot at developing more but will have turn very soon. Winfield is tiny now. But looks as goes up coast it grows a lot.
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Post by GreyBeard on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:30 pm

You are all over the board on this one. In the past 1/2 hour you have it completely decoupled and dead-a Mega fail as you put it,then it's completely decoupled. But wait,then the winds are 70 mph with restrengthening overnight, to now a landfall on long island with ts force winds of 60 mph? You seem to be trying to judge this thing minute by minute, and every minute it goes from one extreme to the other.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:35 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:You are all over the board on this one. In the past 1/2 hour you have it completely decoupled and dead-a Mega fail as you put it,then it's completely decoupled. But wait,then the winds are 70 mph with restrengthening overnight, to now a landfall on long island with ts force winds of 60 mph? You seem to be trying to judge this thing minute by minute, and every minute it goes from one extreme to the other.
lol ok ur right well it's all true it is decoupled and I'm very surprised they kept it a strong ts judging by recon. And as I posted the 5pm update came in and it confirmed and discussion showed still a 60mph ts at this latitude early week. Lots will change I will try to temper my posts. Lol
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:38 pm

@phil155 wrote:Looks like some convection is starting to fire but the storm does not look healthy overall. Will be very interesting to see how it develops and where it goes as none of the models( that I am aware of) saw it degrade like it did today.
I see that we will have to wait and see. NHC did say a restrengthen overnight is likely.
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Post by GreyBeard on Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:52 pm

I've been watching everybodys ' favorite TWC just because they have been reporting from Ft. Lauderdale, where my son lives.But you are right, according to them it presently isn't all that organized yet. They are looking for the thunderstorms to wrap around the center,which isn't happening just yet. But there is plenty of warm open water to give it some strength.We'll see how things develop.

Take a break. You've been on this thing all hours of the day and night from what I can see.

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Post by sroc4 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:10 pm

@phil155 wrote:Looks like some convection is starting to fire but the storm does not look healthy overall. Will be very interesting to see how it develops and where it goes as none of the models( that I am aware of) saw it degrade like it did today.


The eye passed over the heart of Andros island. Combined with the shear and dry air it quickly weakened it a bit. It should restrengthen a little now that the center is on the other side.  And you are def correct in that the convection has returned on the north side of the low level center.
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

You can see just how exposed the low level center was. Almost no convection over the top of the LLC.  If the convection can recenter at least somewhat over top it will restrengthen some again.  

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I would just like to say models DID tip off that it would likely weaken if you new where to look.  Again dry air and shear were always there in the models.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:27 pm

@GreyBeard wrote:I've been watching everybodys ' favorite TWC just because they have been reporting from Ft. Lauderdale, where my son lives.But you are right, according to them it presently isn't all that organized yet. They are looking for the thunderstorms to wrap around the center,which isn't happening just yet. But there is plenty of warm open water to give it some strength.We'll see how things develop.

Take a break. You've been on this thing all hours of the day and night from what I can see.
bored lol love tropical.season but I'll stop post his every move lol.
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