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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:52 pm

Well rb I thought that they had decided after only issuing high wind warnings instead of hurricane warnings with Sandy they changed the issuance criteria to if the same impacts were to be felt then they would issue hurricane warnings to make people notice and prepare more. I know this is true, we all discussed it at one point. Maybe my point wasn't written correctly, but reread your comment and now i understand, and I never know Sandy was not a hybrid and was indeed tropical.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:58 pm

Oh boy 12z Euro!!! We may be watching something on the EC next week. GFS says gulf not strong. Who knows at this point but 98L has a high probability of development, I usually side with Euro on tropics but GFS did really well with Isiais.

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Post by amugs Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:18 pm

EURO PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM
DAYS 6-9

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200816

Days 3-6
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200817

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Post by amugs Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:41 am

Wave train won't woot!! From JB tweet

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1295716207388233728?s=19






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Post by amugs Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:28 pm

Then it makes a hard right up at the outer banks as a cold front with delightful temps for late August sweeps in. Interesting to track in about 8 -9 days or less.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Gfs_ms11

Close Up
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Gfs_ms12

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Post by amugs Wed Aug 19, 2020 12:12 am

Wave train from Africa to the Indian Ocean wowza.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200819

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Post by amugs Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:28 am

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200819

Great explanation of the possibility for both stotms.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:26 pm

Holy Crap! HMON model for 98L

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Hmon_r10

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:51 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Holy Crap! HMON model for 98L

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Hmon_r10
wow...that is crazy...

hey how is your time down in point..is it crowded..we will not be coming down by boat this year Sad

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:12 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:Holy Crap! HMON model for 98L

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Hmon_r10
wow...that is crazy...

hey how is your time down in point..is it crowded..we will not be coming down by boat this year Sad


We are in Seaside Park until the 28th. We have had these crazy rain storms, luckily nothing severe here, but glad the heat is gone! We'll be getting out of here before that storm heads this way if it makes the turn...

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:29 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Holy Crap! HMON model for 98L

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Hmon_r10
Well thats not good, looks like Andrew. I won't get concerned yet as there are many players on field Levi from TT explained 98 has several spins and until they eithe consolidate or one becomes primary circulation models will struggle greatly. But it is slightly concerning to see this as HMON and HWRF did great with ISiais. Thats 7 days out, FL needs to start to keep watch, possibly the EC though I do not think we would likely have the same kind of set up we had with the last one.
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Post by amugs Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:07 pm

Peeps we have a very low wind shear in the MDR = main development reguon for hcanes in the Tropical Atlantic.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200820
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200821

These tracks are concerning for SFLA at this time

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200822

Let's hope it's wrong but if it is then it head unto the Gulf and it will blow up in that jacuzzi!!


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:37 pm

amugs wrote:Peeps we have a very low wind shear in the MDR = main development reguon for hcanes in the Tropical Atlantic.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200820
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200821

These tracks are concerning for SFLA at this time

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200822

Let's hope it's wrong but if it is then it head unto the Gulf and it will blow up in that jacuzzi!!

so this likely wouldnt be a east coast threat other than florida?
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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:14 am

amugs wrote:Peeps we have a very low wind shear in the MDR = main development reguon for hcanes in the Tropical Atlantic.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200820
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200821

These tracks are concerning for SFLA at this time

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200822

Let's hope it's wrong but if it is then it head unto the Gulf and it will blow up in that jacuzzi!!


I have not had time to follow this closely, but VERBATIM I would largely discount the northern half of these ensemble members purely from a historical perspective. IF 98L would be able to organize into a hurricane, its probability of landfalling in that portion of the eastern coast of Florida goes down SUBSTANTIALLY when approaching from the southeastern quadrant. IMO, it would either skirt east like Isaias or bend back to west and shoot the gap between Florida and Cuba. How much interaction it would have with land in the second option would be another question, and keep in mind this is only my opinion of the above spaghettis verbatim with no context lol just wanted to provide some food for thought haha

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Post by rb924119 Thu Aug 20, 2020 4:17 am

Edit: if it stays weak (I.e. a tropical storm or less), then it would be much more likely that it could actually landfall in southeastern Florida, as the meso-scale dynamics would be too weak to have any substantial steering influence.

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Post by dkodgis Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:44 am

Poor FL catches hell all the time
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Post by amugs Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:49 pm

NHC cones 11AM

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200820

Ben Noll says we are gonna abe busy tracking through the end of Sept and Rocktober from latest guidance
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1296450666081267712?s=19

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Post by dkodgis Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:55 pm

Doc, let’s rent a ship and steer into the storms...

And sing ...

Come all ye young fellows that follow the sea
To me weigh hey blow the man down
And pray pay attention and listen to me
Give me some time to blow the man down
I'm a deep water sailor just in from Hong Kong
To me weigh hey blow the man down
If you'll give me some rum I'll sing you a song
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'was on a Black Baller I first spent my time
To me weigh hey blow the man down
And on that Black Baller I wasted my prime
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'is when a Black Baller's preparing for sea
To me weigh hey blow the man down
You'd split your sides laughing at the sights that you see
Give me some time to blow the man down
With the tinkers and tailors and soldiers and all
To me weigh hey blow the man down
That ship for prime seamen onboard a Black Ball
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'is when a Black Baller is clear of the land
To me weigh hey blow the man down
Our boatswain then gives us the word of command
Give me some time to blow the man down
Lay aft is the cry to the break of the poop
To me weigh hey blow the man down
Or I'll help you along with the toe of my boot
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'is larboard and starboard on the deck you will sprawl
To me weigh hey blow the man down
For Kicking Jack Williams commands the Black Ball
Give me some time to blow the man down
Aye first it's a fist and then it's a pall
To me weigh hey blow the man down
When you ship as a sailor aboard the Black Ball
Give me some time to blow the man down
Blow the man down blow the man down
Give me some time to blow the man down
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Post by docstox12 Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:01 pm

dkodgis wrote:Doc, let’s rent a ship and steer into the storms...

And sing ...

Come all ye young fellows that follow the sea
To me weigh hey blow the man down
And pray pay attention and listen to me
Give me some time to blow the man down
I'm a deep water sailor just in from Hong Kong
To me weigh hey blow the man down
If you'll give me some rum I'll sing you a song
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'was on a Black Baller I first spent my time
To me weigh hey blow the man down
And on that Black Baller I wasted my prime
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'is when a Black Baller's preparing for sea
To me weigh hey blow the man down
You'd split your sides laughing at the sights that you see
Give me some time to blow the man down
With the tinkers and tailors and soldiers and all
To me weigh hey blow the man down
That ship for prime seamen onboard a Black Ball
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'is when a Black Baller is clear of the land
To me weigh hey blow the man down
Our boatswain then gives us the word of command
Give me some time to blow the man down
Lay aft is the cry to the break of the poop
To me weigh hey blow the man down
Or I'll help you along with the toe of my boot
Give me some time to blow the man down
T'is larboard and starboard on the deck you will sprawl
To me weigh hey blow the man down
For Kicking Jack Williams commands the Black Ball
Give me some time to blow the man down
Aye first it's a fist and then it's a pall
To me weigh hey blow the man down
When you ship as a sailor aboard the Black Ball
Give me some time to blow the man down
Blow the man down blow the man down
Give me some time to blow the man down

LOVE it Damian.
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Post by dkodgis Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:23 pm

On a very serious note, God help New Orleans this Tues and Thurs when two hurricanes hit. I am reading both will be on New Orleans like white on rice. I hope this is wrong
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:05 pm

Marco at this juncture is set to hey jest west of NO putting it on the eastern side of the eye. He is a hcane and they are gonna get it good.

Laura looks to have shifted west with the new. One and NO is not in the cone anymore.
Marco
MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

11:30 AM CDT Sun Aug 23
Location: 25.0°N 87.4°W
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Winds :75 mph

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:07 pm

Marco projected path
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 09334710

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:47 pm

CAT 3 is Laura by GFS wow.
She is passing to the South of Hispaniola so she won't get shredded. She has bathtub water to fuel her.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Gfs_ms13

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:18 pm

amugs wrote:CAT 3 is Laura by GFS wow.
She is passing to the South of Hispaniola so she won't get shredded. She has bathtub water to fuel her.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 Gfs_ms13
wow
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:43 pm

Yeah um mugs try cat 5++ on 3km NAM, mog, 889mb!! Thank goodness its at end range but if this were to happen god help them all. There won't be enough funds for FEMA to respond either as they are using that for unemployment, and though I am greatful to have the extra unemployment I did not realize they were draining FEMA funding to do so, I hear there will be a tiny bit of funding left for any disasters, real smart place to take the money from.

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Post by amugs Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:52 pm

Cone did a shift east of about 50 miles
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 024654_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.thumb.png.2a5e6e6626af363d853ebf4d0c919d4d

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:50 pm

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 20 20200821

Laura into Texas now

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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