Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
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35 posters
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14713
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
If this were late August this most likely be a trop storm due to the environment and set up


amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14713
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
GFS says westward ho!! (I am sure this saying is outlawed and cancelled out now but.....)



Rainfall Amounts - impressive for July




Rainfall Amounts - impressive for July

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
why don't you think it has that potential. I do albeit a weak one. The waters are very warm especially along nj and NYC which is kinda unusual. I'm thinking a 40 to 50mph TS isn't out the question. Potential fay also moved off the coast more south than thought and sooner. Imo depression possible today at latest tomorrow.amugs wrote:If this were late August this most likely be a trop storm due to the environment and set up
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
just what we need here in north central NJ, some more heavy rain.
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
12z NAM - feisty

Looks like we’re seeing agreement on a fairly aggressive tropical storm impacting us Friday.

Looks like we’re seeing agreement on a fairly aggressive tropical storm impacting us Friday.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
12z GFS

General 1-2 inches of rain with isolated 2+ amounts in NNJ and NEPA

General 1-2 inches of rain with isolated 2+ amounts in NNJ and NEPA
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
fiesty lol, yeah will have to watch some intensity models take potential fay to a moderate TS, very short window though, but its over very warm waters now and its going to hug the gulf stream all the way up which is rather unusual. I do not recall seeing a system come off SC and parallel the coast like that , like you mentioned interesting setup to drag whatever it will be to the north. So you think Sat morning is a wash? If so I will make alternate plans because they were going to be outside.Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM - feisty
Looks like we’re seeing agreement on a fairly aggressive tropical storm impacting us Friday.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19897
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Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19897
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19897
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19897
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Literally treks right up NJ cutting it in half into central NY dunping rediculous rain. And winds to the east into NYC and CT are much stronger than other models. Total rains 3-5 inches, and winds, and it never weakens above 995mb even into central NY which is kinda bizarre. This is the tai lend of the 3km NAM so taking it verbatim this early with a grain of salt but def a trend in the stronger direction.




jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
RPM - Total Rainfall
Takes the weak LP inland over NJ

Takes the weak LP inland over NJ

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14713
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Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
EURO stays off the NJ coast


Gives a good soaking Rain

WINDS not that bad - cut about 5 mph off the euro wind map gusts

Normal windy day



Gives a good soaking Rain

WINDS not that bad - cut about 5 mph off the euro wind map gusts

Normal windy day

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14713
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
How much rain?
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
GFS WAY WEST
Rainfall amounts

Rainfall amounts

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14713
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Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
oldtimer wrote:How much rain?
GFS has 1-3" for NJ and NYC and about .5-1" for Central LI
EURO has 2-4" for NJ and NYC Metro into LI
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 14713
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
SPC put us under marginal for wind and tornadoes due to the prospect of tropical cyclone, thats always the case regardless how strong it is. Will be interesting to see the progression. Invest 98 is looking better just needs to wrap around that center which is clearly visible but devoid of convection, it may form a new COC which could also impact track.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Jesus - what a difference between the NAM and GFS. NAM places the low just off the coast with little in the way of rain impact outside of NYC/LI. GFS hammers everyone as it tracks the low inland.
These are the same time stamps for Friday afternoon


These are the same time stamps for Friday afternoon


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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
.thumb.gif.f1146182a3bf7c023359dc41cc4dd513.gif)
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
NAM is a clear outlier. Other guidance, including the EURO, side with the GFS
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
I have to say I am rooting for the outlier as We have had enough heavy rain recently in N Central NJ
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
what is this i cant see the image. HH finding 40-45 kt winds think we will go right from invest to Fay.Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
I don’t know the numbers but it seems pretty dry in north Jersey this season. I’m hoping for a long steady rain.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Flash Flood Watches posted for all of NJ, of course Upton not gonna do shut until its raining lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
NHC will initiate advisories on tropical storm Fay at 5pm.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-
Wow 18z 3km name is a mega hit to NYC rain and wind. It's also in line with GFS now. 4 to 5 inches rain 40mph gusts.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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