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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by amugs on Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:27 am

GFS says westward ho!! (I am sure this saying is outlawed and cancelled out now but.....)

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Rainfall Amounts - impressive for July
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:30 am

@amugs wrote:If this were late August this most likely be a trop storm due to the environment and set up

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why don't you think it has that potential. I do albeit a weak one. The waters are very warm especially along nj and NYC which is kinda unusual. I'm thinking a 40 to 50mph TS isn't out the question. Potential fay also moved off the coast more south than thought and sooner. Imo depression possible today at latest tomorrow.
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Post by phil155 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:40 am

just what we need here in north central NJ, some more heavy rain.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:56 am

12z NAM - feisty

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42

Looks like we’re seeing agreement on a fairly aggressive tropical storm impacting us Friday.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:58 am

12z GFS

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_11

General 1-2 inches of rain with isolated 2+ amounts in NNJ and NEPA

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM - feisty

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42

Looks like we’re seeing agreement on a fairly aggressive tropical storm impacting us Friday.
fiesty lol, yeah will have to watch some intensity models take potential fay to a moderate TS, very short window though, but its over very warm waters now and its going to hug the gulf stream all the way up which is rather unusual. I do not recall seeing a system come off SC and parallel the coast like that , like you mentioned interesting setup to drag whatever it will be to the north. So you think Sat morning is a wash? If so I will make alternate plans because they were going to be outside.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:30 pm

WOAH 3KM NAM 993mb, bonafide TS.  All models are tugging this much further west I noted.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 Nam3km16actually this is much further east than it was at 12z, it was well inland by this time stamp.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:38 pm

And if we stay near the center or on the eastern side we may see stronger winds as depicted, yes I know these are 850mb winds. A huge dump of rain 5-9 inches in its wake in some spots.

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:43 pm

How in the world is potential Fay maintaining over NJ, being on the eastern side is the worst place to be by the heaviest rain loos to be north west and south of it.

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:48 pm

Literally treks right up NJ cutting it in half into central NY dunping rediculous rain. And winds to the east into NYC and CT are much stronger than other models. Total rains 3-5 inches, and winds, and it never weakens above 995mb even into central NY which is kinda bizarre. This is the tai lend of the 3km NAM so taking it verbatim this early with a grain of salt but def a trend in the stronger direction.

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Post by amugs on Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:31 am

RPM - Total Rainfall
Takes the weak LP inland over NJ
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 MgWeb_WRF_20200709-120000_ANE_ECONUS_F00720000_PgeneralTotalPrecip_R12km.thumb.png.f8c0c737dc04c7c10414f44e33f998dd

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Post by amugs on Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:36 am

EURO stays off the NJ coast

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Gives a good soaking Rain
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WINDS not that bad - cut about 5 mph off the euro wind map gusts

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Normal windy day

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Post by oldtimer on Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:37 am

How much rain?

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Post by amugs on Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:43 am

GFS WAY WEST

Rainfall amounts
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 1594432800-tL7PFXpm6ms

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Post by amugs on Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:44 am

@oldtimer wrote:How much rain?

GFS has 1-3" for NJ and NYC and about .5-1" for Central LI

EURO has 2-4" for NJ and NYC Metro into LI

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 09, 2020 12:44 pm

SPC put us under marginal for wind and tornadoes due to the prospect of tropical cyclone, thats always the case regardless how strong it is. Will be interesting to see the progression. Invest 98 is looking better just needs to wrap around that center which is clearly visible but devoid of convection, it may form a new COC which could also impact track.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:54 pm

Jesus - what a difference between the NAM and GFS. NAM places the low just off the coast with little in the way of rain impact outside of NYC/LI. GFS hammers everyone as it tracks the low inland.

These are the same time stamps for Friday afternoon

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_30

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:56 pm

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:56 pm

NAM is a clear outlier. Other guidance, including the EURO, side with the GFS

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Post by phil155 on Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:02 pm

I have to say I am rooting for the outlier as We have had enough heavy rain recently in N Central NJ

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 3 1323500801_wrf-arw_ref_frzn_neus_fh1-48(1).thumb.gif.f1146182a3bf7c023359dc41cc4dd513
what is this i cant see the image. HH finding 40-45 kt winds think we will go right from invest to Fay.
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Post by Grselig on Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:11 pm

I don’t know the numbers but it seems pretty dry in north Jersey this season. I’m hoping for a long steady rain.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:27 pm

Flash Flood Watches posted for all of NJ, of course Upton not gonna do shut until its raining lol.
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Post by Quietace on Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:21 pm

NHC will initiate advisories on tropical storm Fay at 5pm.

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:32 pm

Wow 18z 3km name is a mega hit to NYC rain and wind. It's also in line with GFS now. 4 to 5 inches rain 40mph gusts.
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