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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by mwilli on Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:12 pm

looking at Africa/weatherunderground)there's at least 5 open waves right now."it ain't over till it's over"

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Post by amugs on Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:31 pm

YUP ^^^ We are in for the long haul everybody and MJO going into phase 2 & 3 in about a 5 days then the east coast is at play until we get to phase 4.

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:05 am

Amazing it appears NHC believes Laura might redevelop into a subtropical system as she emerges around south to central NJ, thats crazy after traversing half the US.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 Cone_l10
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Post by amugs on Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:22 am

Ummm Houston .........WE HAVE A PROBLEM!!
About 48 hours from now and they get Laura, Matthew's cousin!! She is going to intensify wit low shear, warm bath waters and scarce dry air.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 20200823
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 20200822

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:55 am

It wont be long before upgraded to a cane. She has great structure with strong convection firing over top the LLC. The mid and low level centers are starting to align quite nicely.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 Recon_NOAA2-1713A-LAURA


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Post by amugs on Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:40 pm

RI = rapid intensification needs to watched closely here. Latest model run track. About 36 hours till landfall, preparations for rhe coast in this come are imperative at this juncture.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 20200823
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 20200824

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Post by amugs on Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:43 pm

Her coneHurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 15340310

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:06 pm

@amugs wrote:Her coneHurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 15340310
Thats gotta be the longest cone I have ever seen....wow that sounded bad.
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Post by Radz on Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:56 pm

90mph 978millibars 11pm update
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Post by amugs on Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:08 pm

Check out this site for wind gusts - saying 150 knots = 173 mph at landfall in some spots - YIKES!! I say possible but not likely!

https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?gust,2020-08-27-06,28.305,-89.845,7,m:etGadyr

Storm Surge - MOMMA MIA!!

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 EgUEMqxXgAAiHWR?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by Radz on Wed Aug 26, 2020 5:53 am

110mph 973 MB at 5am continued intensification expected
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:03 am

wow cat 3 already RI happening, I think her inteinsity will be increased I do not think strong cat 3 maybe 4 are out of the question.
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Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:24 am

@jmanley32 wrote:wow cat 3 already RI happening, I think her inteinsity will be increased I do not think strong cat 3 maybe 4 are out of the question.

Pressure is still dropping very rapidly, definitely think we see a cat 4 hurricane this afternoon. I'll be interested in seeing the 11am advisory as I think it's pretty close right now

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Post by Sanchize06 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:55 am

Pressure down to 956mb, winds up to 125mph. Very close to a cat 4 already and NHC forecasting 145mph winds nearing landfall

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:10 pm

@Sanchize06 wrote:Pressure down to 956mb, winds up to 125mph. Very close to a cat 4 already and NHC forecasting 145mph winds nearing landfall
This is not good at all, might see Cat 5 at this pt. I mean 970s to 956 in a matter of hours thats like bombogenesis with a noreaster.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:11 pm

I also find it intersting that she is being tracked across the entire US and off our coast even as a subtropical storm. NHC mentions this in their discussion that she may reintensify off the midatlantic but looks to move near due east.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:40 pm

Even cattle being evacuated, this is going to be soooo bad Shocked

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1298623289154244610?s=20


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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:14 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:Even cattle being evacuated, this is going to be soooo bad Shocked

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1298623289154244610?s=20

I hate to see helpless animals die in storms so this is very good, they do not have a lot of time though, TS winds are already making it onshore, this is going to be a catastrophe.
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Post by amugs on Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:50 pm

WOW


...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...
1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.3°N 92.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

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Post by amugs on Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:53 pm

16 mph is a good forward speed for a hcane and she is intensifying this is going to be catastrophic - I have learned from mets that I know that a weakening system is less worrisome as it approaches land than a strengthening system - the wildcard variables to strengthening system are no bueno!!

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Post by amugs on Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:56 pm

From Twitter She is a CAT 4 and strengthening with 12 hours till landfall

ImageHurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 EgXV9-KXkAI2JUd?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs on Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:02 pm

Windy.com saying 159 knot wind gusts = 183 mph - catastrophic and she is strengthening from all reports on buoys, radar and recon flights

https://www.usa-wx.com/forum/topic/7303-hurricane-laura-category-3-956mb-125mph/page/26/?tab=comments#comment-1172485

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:08 pm

Not to be the bearer of more bad news but the euro has her get down to 939mb just before landfall; then just as it comes ashore it drops to 943 then 946. Levi has made mention of a little bit of shear right as it nears shore but unfort that will likely have little efect on impacts with this system. Hopefully in the next 12 hours it undergoes an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) such that it weakens at least a little before landfall. Either way it will be catastrophic.

God's speed to those that do not heed warning and leave.

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Post by GreyBeard on Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I also find it intersting that she is being tracked across the entire US and off our coast even as a subtropical storm. NHC mentions this in their discussion that she may reintensify off the midatlantic but looks to move near due east.


According to this map,the remnants of Laura reach all the way up to Newfoundland monday morning as a tropical storm. Unbelievable after spending so much time over land. Looks like she comes back over the ocean at the south tip of New Jersey and regains tropical storm status.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/severeweather/hurricanes?ocid=SK2HDHP

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:47 pm

Pressures now down to the mid 940's according to the current recon flight. Yikes!

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 21 Recon_AF307-2313A-LAURA_zoom

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