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Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

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Post by Quietace Thu 09 Jul 2020, 4:21 pm

NHC will initiate advisories on tropical storm Fay at 5pm.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 4:32 pm

Wow 18z 3km name is a mega hit to NYC rain and wind. It's also in line with GFS now. 4 to 5 inches rain 40mph gusts.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 5:03 pm

Tropical storm warnings issued from cape may to block island MA.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 5:09 pm

looking decent, 45mph storm, most of us will be on eastern side which is where the windfield is located.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

NJwx - Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 4 20582710

Not sure why TS warnings on nws only show NJ, though NHC shows to MA including NYC etc.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 5:47 pm

I dont get it why is the tropical storm warning only till 1:45am tomorrow morning? Is that the way they do it and then an update?
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Post by amugs Thu 09 Jul 2020, 5:55 pm

GFS slow it down allowing for some strengthening it seems. A coup for the GFS.
It may bump east a bit as storms usually do, time will tell.

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Post by amugs Thu 09 Jul 2020, 5:55 pm

UPDATE: #TropicalStorm #Fay has formed off the coast of #NorthCarolina this afternoon, seen here by @NOAA's #GOES16🛰️. @NHC_Atlantic expects it to strengthen slightly as it moves along the coast, and a #TropicalStormWarning is in effect from #NJ to #RI. #NJwx #NYwx #CTwx #RIwx https://t.co/XUp2N88rfT

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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 5:57 pm

amugs wrote:UPDATE: #TropicalStorm #Fay has formed off the coast of #NorthCarolina this afternoon, seen here by @NOAA's #GOES16🛰️. @NHC_Atlantic expects it to strengthen slightly as it moves along the coast, and a #TropicalStormWarning is in effect from #NJ to #RI. #NJwx #NYwx #CTwx #RIwx https://t.co/XUp2N88rfT
Already posted it 45 min ago mugs lol, yeah shes looking pretty good only 7mph, might get a surprise. Right now I am look at 1-3 inches rain plus, 50mph gusts and some risk for tornadoes.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 6:03 pm

Can someone nail down timing winds at their peak and rain
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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 6:05 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone nail down timing winds at their peak and rain
looks like around 2pm tomorrow things start to deteriorate.
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Post by frank 638 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 6:15 pm

Does anyone know how bad will it be for my area in Nyc because I’m hearing different stories for cc the morning then now they’re seeing at night I don’t

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Post by frank 638 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 6:16 pm

I’m sorry what I meant was how bad will it be for Nyc because I’m hearing different Stories and I don’t know if I should do a double shift tomorrow cause I’m driving into Manhattan on 34th St.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 6:32 pm

Latest statement feels Fay will make landfall near NYC area, if she stays over water that long she may get a bit stronger. I dunno why i have a hurricane statement, shes not progged to become a hurricane.
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Post by amugs Thu 09 Jul 2020, 7:59 pm

This would be very interesting
NJwx - Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 4 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh1-33.thumb.gif.5a4c8adbb7549faaee1940e00aecdcaa

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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 8:05 pm

amugs wrote:This would be very interesting
NJwx - Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 4 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh1-33.thumb.gif.5a4c8adbb7549faaee1940e00aecdcaa
cant see it, maybe its my browser, has anyone else had this issue with mugs images?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 8:09 pm

so i looked at the model and what are you pointing out mugs? The heavy rain or the fact that Fays center stays slightly offshore of NJ? Also note at the end of the run a big outbreak of thunderstorms to our west in PA.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 8:15 pm

cool. did not know the sattelite showed the lights.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
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Post by hyde345 Thu 09 Jul 2020, 10:25 pm

frank 638 wrote:I’m sorry what I meant was how bad will it be for Nyc because I’m hearing different Stories and I don’t know if I should do a double shift tomorrow cause I’m driving into Manhattan on 34th St.

It looks like worst in NYC is going to be from mid afternoon to 9 or so. 2-3 inches of rain in a short time will cause flooding in flood prone areas especially with the rain the city has received in the last week.
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Post by aiannone Thu 09 Jul 2020, 10:32 pm

NHC leaning on the euro for this one track wise. NAM furthest west, euro over LI and gfs in the middle. Land all near NYC, jersey shore looks likely.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu 09 Jul 2020, 11:02 pm

We will be on the boat for our first tropical storm. We battened down the hatches in Ossening..
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Post by dkodgis Thu 09 Jul 2020, 11:20 pm

Everyone, stay safe
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu 09 Jul 2020, 11:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:This would be very interesting
NJwx - Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 4 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh1-33.thumb.gif.5a4c8adbb7549faaee1940e00aecdcaa
cant see it, maybe its my browser, has anyone else had this issue with mugs images?

I haven't been able to see them either.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri 10 Jul 2020, 1:47 am

Aircraft recon is finding 50 kt winds, a bit stronger than progged.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri 10 Jul 2020, 1:54 am

wow look at that radar thats some solid rediculous rain.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-jersey/weather-radar
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Post by sroc4 Fri 10 Jul 2020, 6:51 am

NJwx - Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 4 Codnexlab.NEXRAD.DOX.N0Q.20200710.1050.006ani

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Post by jmanley32 Fri 10 Jul 2020, 7:23 am

Recent sattelite looks like she's starting to try to wrap all way around a bit. 50mph storm now, doesn't look to go inland until literally landfall on NYC per latest cone. Winfield grew on eastern side too.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri 10 Jul 2020, 8:05 am

Madonne the storm looks quite intense already. Someone is going to get close or above three inches of rain in NNJ. Be safe out there. Prepare for some power outages

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