April 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:40 am

If there is a positive side to this chilly, cloudy, damp trend, it is exactly what mom said: Imagine how miserable we'd be stuck inside if it was sunny and 70 degrees the last three weeks? As is, most of us would have been staying inside a lot anyway with these gloomy wet conditions outside.
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Post by amugs on Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:21 pm

Here it comes again mid week - Thursday:
From JD and WxBell

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Slide1(202)

Mid May - look at this - a ridge over the west coast ane a trough over the east with a Negative EPO and a slight NAO block. BN temps to be expected with this pattern.
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_8809600(1)

MJO showing this colder phase 3 - green line
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

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Post by amugs on Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:55 pm

A VA FUNGULLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!! WHERE THE HECK WAS THIS IN JAN OR FEB!!!
5-7* BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 EWjzQzBWsAEy78k?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by billg315 on Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:22 pm

As usual of late, we get in March-May what we wanted in Dec-Feb. Hopefully we get these kinds of looks next winter.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:31 pm

@amugs wrote:A VA FUNGULLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!! WHERE THE HECK WAS THIS IN JAN OR FEB!!!
5-7* BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 EWjzQzBWsAEy78k?format=jpg&name=medium
Mother Nature is just mocking us now with ruining winter and spring. Evil or Very Mad
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:10 am

35.6° light rain, some wet flakes.

If this pattern switched even a month earlier it could have been a memorable last two weeks of March. The last of 100 other reasons to make this winter season a top 3 stinker of all time.
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:50 am

@amugs wrote:A VA FUNGULLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!! WHERE THE HECK WAS THIS IN JAN OR FEB!!!
5-7* BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 EWjzQzBWsAEy78k?format=jpg&name=medium

LMAO Mugsy, I agree 100% in Italian with you.

The proverbial "a day late and a dollar short"!
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Post by amugs on Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:10 pm

AHH NUTS!!!! No winter now NO SPRING!!!!! Maybe 2nd half o May now - I curse you warm miser!

This MJO wave is not allowing any extended warmth in the pattern, a few days yes but nothing extended for us through mid May as it looks now.

Phase 3 then 4
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Combined_image

These do not look warm at all for us.
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1588593600-Hs1HSoTrMTE

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1588788000-OobuIWS0VGg

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1589090400-XT9XG52ayJA

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 EWoNPTnWoAIY3GI?format=jpg&name=large

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 EWoNOjBWsAUL2qb?format=jpg&name=large

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:15 pm

FROST WARNING NNJ
MR. FROSTY COMING TO TOWN TONIGHT!! 
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
321 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-280900-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FR.Y.0003.200428T0700Z-200428T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-
Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
321 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2020

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the middle 30s will result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
left uncovered.

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:42 pm

Cross Arctic flow, wth ???? If this were winter this be a deep freeze, with snow potential.

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Img_2018
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Img_2019
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Img_2018
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Img_2019

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:14 pm

We had a beautiful day Saturday, got out to the park for a walk. I was surprised how crowded it was. But everyone was wearing a mask for the most part. We just stayed well out of any ones way. It is not irresponsible to get fresh air and exerices shoot if we don't we will all be signing up for my 600 lb life.
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Post by amugs on Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:33 pm

ARGGHHHHH For the beginning of May after this beautiful weekend coming up:

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 EWyjN4HXYAY09GF?format=png&name=medium

_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis on Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:53 pm

I observe April, the entire month, has been cool like I was camping on an iceberg. Of course us old folks do feel colder with age.
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:07 pm

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 30dTDeptUS
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 30dTDeptNRCC

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Post by dkodgis on Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:17 pm

Well there you go
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:31 pm

@sroc4 wrote:April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 30dTDeptUS
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 30dTDeptNRCC

Well, that worked out just peachy keen! Would have been nice in February or March
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Post by dkodgis on Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:46 pm

Looks like mucho rain tomorrow evening into Fri morning.
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Post by amugs on Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:39 pm

@dkodgis wrote:Looks like mucho rain tomorrow evening into Fri morning.

WOW
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1588338000-lDEqCFZTtWs

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:41 pm

RGEM - those are some good t-storms lining up - Severe risk is there

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh1-54.thumb.gif.717c8e5254f04e1dac5adf8c2343e51d

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by frank 638 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:29 am

Heavy rain ☔ now the worst is yet to come tonight

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Post by billg315 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:25 am

Looking at current radar we are in for a soaker this evening. Solid area of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms from Buffalo NY down to Wilmington NC. It is moving slowly and the cells within the line are moving south to north training over the same areas as the line creeps east. Once it gets here late this afternoon I expect we’ll see several hours of downpours with gusty winds and thunder mixed in for fun. Hope the sump pumps and downspouts are ready to work overtime!
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Post by billg315 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:28 am

Latest regional radar courtesy of Accuweather:
April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1a1e4d10
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:47 am

Oy, this is terrible, first HWW are now up for parts of jersey gusts 50-60mph rest a advisory 45mph and into southern NY.  My daughter is having a drive by birthday party at 5:30 with her friends coming and police.  Is there any way this line might hold off until 5:30-6ish? Or are we gonna get soaked?  I just don't want her gifts to get ruined nor standing outside to be miserable. Right now its not too bad but that line is nuts, I see 2-3 is my guess locally higher under training and possible power outages with the stronger winds and saturated ground.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:53 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:49 am

@amugs wrote:RGEM - those are some good t-storms lining up  - Severe risk is there

April 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh1-54.thumb.gif.717c8e5254f04e1dac5adf8c2343e51d
Mugs your imagines for somereason do not appear for me at least. Anyone else having that issue?
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Post by billg315 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:15 pm

JMan, I unfortunately think it will be very close to starting at that time. It’s going to be a close-call though. That is right when it’s supposed to roll in so there is a chance to just miss it if it holds off until 6:30 or so.
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