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Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:49 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hey clan -

Miss you all! Not going to lie, its been an off year for me. I just have not felt myself since COVID came around and shut everything down. I felt like a prisoner in my own home, except I'm in a pretty small apartment. I kept reminding myself, that unfortunately, people (and families) have it wayyy worse than I do.

Also, my gf and I have been looking for a home to buy but we kept getting out-bid by you crazy new yorkers who are bidding 20-30% over asking price. Luckily, we are currently under contract and hope to finally be in a place we can call home soon.

Other than that, summer is over and we're looking at much cooler days ahead. We'll see what winter holds Wink




Good to hear from you Frank. House hunting can definitely be a challenge and nerve racking for sure. It’s definitely a sellers market surrounding NYC. You’ll get there. Cheers

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Empty Looks like the tropics might become active again in October

Post by Jack D. on Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:33 am

I’ve been watching the trends on the GFS, and it looks like there might be a storm coming up the east coast in the beginning of October. Then another two or three developing in the Caribbean and MDR shortly after that.

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Post by mwilli on Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:37 am

good looking out Jack d. also keep a watchful eye on the carribean

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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:01 am

[quote="Jack D."]I’ve been watching the trends on the GFS, and it looks like there might be a storm coming up the east coast in the beginning of October. Then another two or three developing in the Caribbean and MDR shortly after that.[/quote

Jack D welcome to the board and thank you for your first post. Insightful and I see the same with the pressure pattern set up - big deep trough over Midwest and a NAO Block. Enjoy the information we share and please post and always ask question if you do not understand things. We are a very congenial board and like a family here from the top our founder Frank to SROC to DOC to ZOO and so many others here. Enjoy!!

@ Frank - best of luck and house hunting is an experience and it is tough - so many decisions to make. Best of luck with the move and welcome to the club of being a homeowner. AS DOC said better you have the benefit of being an owner than shelling out monthly money for an apt that gives you no return. Glad you are back my man.

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Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Empty Watching the winter pattern set up with the teleconnections.

Post by Jack D. on Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:55 pm

What I always look for is a positive PO that extends towards the Aleutian Islands. That helps to create an arctic push into the Midwest and east coast. Then if we get a positive NAO that is negatively tilted, that keeps the storms coming up along the east coast and doesn’t let them just head out to sea.

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Post by HectorO on Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:24 pm

Today is my dream September. A time where we can save energy on heating and cooling and just open windows. Too cold too soon, and we get a warm December if seems lol.
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:10 pm

@HectorO wrote:Today is my dream September. A time where we can save energy on heating and cooling and just open windows. Too cold too soon, and we get a warm December if seems lol.

Hector, I was just telling my wife the other day these are happy days, because I save on AC and heating costs,LOL.
Agree on the early winter unless we have a '93-'94 or '95-'96, where it stays cold with regular snowstorms from late Nov-early Dec to mid April.Sadly, some of the recent early cold and snow set ups fizzled out.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:38 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hey clan -

Miss you all! Not going to lie, its been an off year for me. I just have not felt myself since COVID came around and shut everything down. I felt like a prisoner in my own home, except I'm in a pretty small apartment. I kept reminding myself, that unfortunately, people (and families) have it wayyy worse than I do.

Also, my gf and I have been looking for a home to buy but we kept getting out-bid by you crazy new yorkers who are bidding 20-30% over asking price. Luckily, we are currently under contract and hope to finally be in a place we can call home soon.

Other than that, summer is over and we're looking at much cooler days ahead. We'll see what winter holds Wink




Hey Frank...missed you too..hopefully the house search will get better..it is fun to look at houses. Sucks to loose out on bidding. Sorry that you feel confined in your apartment. Look at the glass half full if you are surviving in a small apartment with your other half..during these crazy times you will make it thru anything!! I look at all of this as long as we stay safe and continue to laugh that its all a win! Besides WHEN WILL I EVER again have all this time with my teen age son again??? He is loving remote learning wakes up at 7:20 coffee waiting for his 7:30 class start..hot breakfast outside your door at break time and the 3 drawers on the left had side of his desk are filled with snacks...all is good...lol Husband on the other had has been working from home March 9th and probably will not go back into the office until next summer they are saying..We are really enjoying all being together..well there are moments.. affraid The right house will come to the two of you when you least expect it!! Hope we have a cold and snowy winter and lots to track!
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:38 pm

@Jack D. wrote:I’ve been watching the trends on the GFS, and it looks like there might be a storm coming up the east coast in the beginning of October. Then another two or three developing in the Caribbean and MDR shortly after that.

Welcome to the group!! I hope we have lots to track this winter!!
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Post by amugs on Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:36 pm


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Post by amugs on Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:56 am

Folks,  watched a video hat I will post from Ben Davidson a meteorologist from PSU and a lawyer and write scientific articles that have been published and reviewed. He has been on this Beaufort Gyre that Sroc wrote about I believe a couple of years ago and the beauty of this site is the peeking of inquisitive minds (like mine) that wanted to find out more. The more I research this and teh sun the more I pause and watch and study - when I have time. His latest video shows that if this Gyre that is focused over teh arctic region and Greenland breaks free and dumps it cold fresh water south it WILL disrupt/alter the flow of the Gulfstream that water stream of water that gives us in the mid and north latitudes warmth. His models show that the gulf would alter its course and push this conduit of warm tropical waters south to the upper 30's parallel which woudl not be good for us. If Antarctica gest involved as well and we have a double whammy by both the Arctic and Antarctic then the world plunges into a flash freeze. There is historical core samples that show this from both of these regions back about 22 million year ago and as little as 12000K years ago, there is a historical 10-14K year period of this happening which puts us in the middle of this.

From the 2;28 second mark to the 5:08 mark

\

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Post by amugs on Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:57 am

Where does one sign - CFS v2 has a cold bias for sure but it sees cold 1st before teh otehr models
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Cfsv2_Dec

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Post by amugs on Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:49 pm

Interesting article that talks about what I wrote about earlier on the Beauforte Gyre and mini ice ages
https://electroverse.net/british-astrophysicists-mini-ice-age-is-accelerating-new-maunder-minimum-has-begun/

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Post by sroc4 on Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:25 am

@amugs wrote:Folks,  watched a video hat I will post from Ben Davidson a meteorologist from PSU and a lawyer and write scientific articles that have been published and reviewed. He has been on this Beaufort Gyre that Sroc wrote about I believe a couple of years ago and the beauty of this site is the peeking of inquisitive minds (like mine) that wanted to find out more. The more I research this and teh sun the more I pause and watch and study - when I have time. His latest video shows that if this Gyre that is focused over teh arctic region and Greenland breaks free and dumps it cold fresh water south it WILL disrupt/alter the flow of the Gulfstream that water stream of water that gives us in the mid and north latitudes warmth. His models show that the gulf would alter its course and push this conduit of warm tropical waters south to the upper 30's parallel which woudl not be good for us. If Antarctica gest involved as well and we have a double whammy by both the Arctic and Antarctic then the world plunges into a flash freeze. There is historical core samples that show this from both of these regions back about 22 million year ago and as little as 12000K years ago, there is a historical 10-14K year period of this happening which puts us in the middle of this.

From the 2;28 second mark to the 5:08 mark

\

Great discussion Mugs. Regarding the Beaufort Gyre it’s not a matter of “if”but rather “when” it releases again. This is a well known natural occurrence influencing the long term ebbs and flows of the climate. One of many interconnected thermostats of the planet if you will.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by amugs on Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:45 am

^^^^^Scott,

Absolutely true and when it release if in conjunction with the Antarctica Gyre then man is in trouble in both hemispheres. Just fascinating to research and learn the interconnections of these, the sun and natural happenings on this planet (massive for man but small in our solar system of planets). We can only do so much and there are, always have been, and always will be much larger forces at play over our planet that we need to recognize and learn about.

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Post by amugs on Tue Sep 29, 2020 11:16 am

Anyone paying attention the spring storms that are walloping Aussie land and New Zealand with spring snows even on the beaches down under and freezing temps the last few days?? Called an Antarctica Bomb Cyclone.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12368404

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 KX3JMRYH3JEVVAZMDEVYILCELE

Geomagnetic storm of a C2 hit earth yesterday - caused geomagnetic disruption in teh form of EQ's swarming in South Africa and the New Madrid Fault - if that goes off like it did 200 years ago watcha we'll have our hands full.

From USGS - https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/earthquake-hazards/science/summary-1811-1812-new-madrid-earthquakes-sequence?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

WIKI Info https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1811%E2%80%931812_New_Madrid_earthquakes

1811, December 16, 08:15 UTC Northeast Arkansas - the first main shock
2:15 am local time
Magnitude ~7.5
This powerful earthquake was felt widely over the entire eastern United States. People were awakened by the shaking in New York City, Washington, D.C., and Charleston, South Carolina. Perceptible ground shaking was in the range of one to three minutes depending upon the observers location. The ground motions were described as most alarming and frightening in places like Nashville, Tennessee, and Louisville, Kentucky. Reports also describe houses and other structures being severely shaken with many chimneys knocked down. In the epicentral area the ground surface was described as in great convulsion with sand and water ejected tens of feet into the air (liquefaction).

1811, December 16, 13:15 UTC Northeast Arkansas - the "Dawn" Aftershock
7:15 am local time
Magnitude ~7.0
A large event felt on the East Coast that is sometimes regarded as the fourth principal earthquake of the 1811-1812 sequence. The event is described as "severe" at New Bourbon, Missouri, and was described by boatman John Bradbury, who was moored to a small island south of New Madrid, as "terrible, but not equal to the first". Hough believes that this large aftershock occurred around dawn in the New Madrid region near the surface projection of the Reelfoot fault.

1812, January 23, 15:15 UTC, New Madrid, Missouri
9:15 am local time,
Magnitude ~7.3
The second principal shock of the 1811-1812 sequence. It is difficult to assign intensities to the principal shocks that occurred after 1811 because many of the published accounts describe the cumulative effects of all the earthquakes and because the Ohio River was iced over, so there was little river traffic and fewer human observers. Using the December 16 earthquake as a standard, however, there is a general consensus that this earthquake was the smallest of the three principals. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.

1812, February 7, 09:45 UTC, New Madrid, Missouri
3:45 am local time,
Magnitude ~7.5
The third principal earthquake of the 1811-1812 series. Several destructive shocks occurred on February 7, the last of which equaled or surpassed the magnitude of any previous event. The town of New Madrid was destroyed. At St. Louis, many houses were damaged severely and their chimneys were thrown down. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.

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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:09 pm

HMMM - La Nina for sure but look at the warm pool up in teh NE PAC off British Columbia - implications for winter?

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Seems to be more central based Nina or a Modoki Nina at his stage- need the east to cool a bit more and teh central to warm a bit IMO

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Wkxzteq_anm

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:39 pm

@amugs wrote:HMMM - La Nina for sure but look at the warm pool up in teh NE PAC off British Columbia - implications for winter?

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Seems to be more central based Nina or a Modoki Nina at his stage- need the east to cool a bit more and teh central to warm a bit IMO

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Wkxzteq_anm

Can you explain this a little more? Tx
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:25 am

Accuweather's winter 2020-2021 forecast mentions La Nina with a bookend winter up here.Some cold shots, and a possible East Coast snowstorm in late February.Anyway, more snow than last winter although average to a bit below they say.
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:52 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@amugs wrote:HMMM - La Nina for sure but look at the warm pool up in teh NE PAC off British Columbia - implications for winter?

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Seems to be more central based Nina or a Modoki Nina at his stage- need the east to cool a bit more and teh central to warm a bit IMO

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Wkxzteq_anm

Can you explain this a little more? Tx

Hey Weathermom.  I believe what Mugsy is referring too is the idea that the warm pool in the NE Pac (Black circle), if persists into the winter, can and has been implicated in promoting ridging(-EPO/+PNA respectively) into the EPO region(Alaska/NW Canada) and/or in the PNA region(western CONUS/Canada).  Ridging in these areas typically leads to the jet stream climbing high into the polar and arctic regions then diving south delivering Polar and or Arctic air masses into the central and eastern portions of the CONUS.   Obviosuly a warm pool in this area does not guarantee ridgining in these areas as all the other big picture atmospheric oscillations and ocean SST anomalies have to be factored into the big picture...but it is a check mark for cold shots at this early stage.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Oct1st10

As far as the second image/loop he posted.  This shows the SST anomalies in a cross section along the trop Pac.  Note the X(horizontal) axis denotes the longitude and the Y(vertical) axis denotes the depth in meters.  The cold pool in the eastern Pac runs deep.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 La_nin10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:44 pm

Thanks Scott for answering Mom and explaining exactly what I was depicting but did not explain.

Okay just read JB's latest on winter and he has chopped overall winter temps considerably saying basically what SROC just examined of what I was showing. There is the possibility that we may have an interesting winter with some wild swings in temperatures and extreme weather experiences.
Solar is looking to hit 200 days without solar sun spots which would be historical, last time was......Maunder Minimum as some experts say and some say the Wolf from the 1912 - 13.
There has also be swarming of geomagnetic instability in Southern Cali which is off rhe San Adreas Fault but possibly indicative of volcanic yes volcanic activity there and also...Iceland. There are 3 Volcano's on tjis Island that are percolating and they have raised the warning level to yellow which is a heightened level. Next is Orange = heightened, Red = evacuation.
If these or anyone blows to a level 3 or 4 God Help those Icelanders if a 5 it could at 3 and would at 4 and 5 melt the glaciers on the island. That would release tremendous amounts of fresh cold water in the North Atlantic and would allow rhe Belafonte Gyre to blow, release its cold fresh arctic water. This would change rhe jet stream and gulf stream in a few days maybe week and all hell breaks loose in NA and Northern Europe. Besides the amount of particles spewed into the atmosphere.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:15 am

Good morning and thank you for explaining!!!
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Post by amugs on Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:00 am

From NASA on the sun, they heard me??

THE STRANGE SPOTLESSNESS OF THE SUN: On Sept. 15th, NOAA and NASA announced that new Solar Cycle 25 has begun. Since then, the sun has been blank--totally spotless--almost 90% of the time. This sustained lack of sunspots shows that Solar Minimum is not over; Solar Cycle 25 is still too weak to break its icy grip on solar activity.




Solar wind
speed: 437.3 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1250 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A6 1122 UT Oct03
24-hr: A6 1338 UT Oct02
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1255 UT



Daily Sun: 03 Oct 20


The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI



Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 03 Oct 2020

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 7 days
2020 total: 197 days (71%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)

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Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Empty Re: Banter Thread 5.0

Post by frank 638 on Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:13 pm

I noticed today there are a a lot Snow plows around my area I guess they’re practicing for this winter I hope this winter we get slammed with ⛄ ❄

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Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 11 Empty Re: Banter Thread 5.0

Post by mwilli on Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:58 pm

far too long since I heard the words"Mothrazilla,Roidzilla we're overdue for one big snowstorm

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