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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:42 am

For NE PA interesting posted on another board
Some interesting analysis regarding Octobers by decade below

Looking at Octobers by decade since the 1890's - 3 of the last 5 decades are the coldest October decades on record the top 5 coldest are below:

1970's (52.5) / 1980's (52.6) / 1960's (53.3) / 1920's (53.3) / 1990's (53.4)
Of the top 5 warmest October decades - 4 of those decades occurred before 1960

1910's (56.7) / 1940's (55.4) / 2010's (55.3) / 1900's (54.9) / 1950's (54.4)

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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:48 am

Great depiction of the R/S line for NW of I95 discussion from Mt Holly
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 EjhsioeVcAAMUxH?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:02 pm

Get you ready for the PV talk upcoming (PV = Polar Vortex)

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 EjkjzVsXsAAs95E?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by mwilli on Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:20 pm

were definitely making up from last year....heating bills will be up...ughh

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:54 pm

@amugs wrote:Get you ready for the PV talk upcoming (PV = Polar Vortex)

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 EjkjzVsXsAAs95E?format=png&name=900x900


When it comes to Siberian snow cover and its influences on winter the single most import month is through Oct.  The rate of growth through the month is as important as the snow pack itself.  The reason this is important is a vast snow pack in the Siberia region can lead to a huge amount of reflective energy from the sun sent back up into the atmosphere which can lead to stratospheric vortex(upper levels of the atmosphere) warming events which if you have been following over the years can lead to disruption to the troposphere vortex(lower levels of the atmosphere where we live) dislodging pieces of it southward into the lower latitudes.  

Here is the snow fall anomalies for the northern Hempshphere through Oct 4th.  As you can see through the first 4 days of Oct. eastern Russia, Alaska and NW Canada is below normal where the heart of Russia is normal to slight above normal.  At this early stage all of this means Nada.  As we head into the last 14days of the month into the first week of Nov we will see where we stand.  Cheers!

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 Siberi11

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:05 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I noticed today there are a a lot Snow plows around my area I guess they’re practicing for this winter I hope this winter we get slammed with ⛄ ❄

yep, I saw on the news they were training for winter and to not be surprised!

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:51 pm

On another note, are we in a drought? My stream is way low and ponds and lakes around here be seriously low. I hope the snow replenishes for the spring
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:14 pm

Boy 2020 just keeps getting worse Eddie Van Halen dead at 65!!! My favorite guitarist of all time.

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:57 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Boy 2020 just keeps getting worse Eddie Van Halen dead at 65!!!  My favorite guitarist of all time.

Wow, Eddie was 65, where the hell did time go? Very sorry to hear about this.The smokes got him in the end.RIP Eddie.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:09 pm

Terrible news. One of the greatest guitarists of all-time. I was (am) a huge Van Halen fan. Saw them in concert with both Sammy and DLR (second time around).
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Post by HectorO on Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:12 pm

@billg315 wrote:Terrible news. One of the greatest guitarists of all-time. I was (am) a huge Van Halen fan. Saw them in concert with both Sammy and DLR (second time around).

Yea, just heard wow....
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Post by billg315 on Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:05 pm

Waaaaay far out (hence why I'm putting it in banter), but I always like to note in the Fall the first time I see the GFS flirt with snowflakes in NJ. The last run has NW NJ flirting with snowflakes (just some flurries) around Oct. 21. Will it happen? Who knows, but I love seeing snow on the models nearby for the first time since, well, May (remember that one on May 9?).
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:13 pm

billg315:

I have seen flurries in the LHV NY around October 15th so that is possible.
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Post by HectorO on Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:46 pm

@billg315 wrote:Waaaaay far out (hence why I'm putting it in banter), but I always like to note in the Fall the first time I see the GFS flirt with snowflakes in NJ. The last run has NW NJ flirting with snowflakes (just some flurries) around Oct. 21. Will it happen? Who knows, but I love seeing snow on the models nearby for the first time since, well, May (remember that one on May 9?).

As long as its flakes and not a storm. We all know how those winters turn out.
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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:55 pm

Shortest frost/freeze period since the great 1913 Solar Minimum incoming!! This is the time between teh last freeze or frost in the spring to the fall - not every location but a large swath in the region this will be.....


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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:59 pm

Some blue colors showing up at this stage!!

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 Gfs_T2m_neus_36

FROST and FREEZE - urban areas not so much
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 Gfs_T2m_neus_40

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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:01 pm

WOW if true - that is a pretty cold air mass 540 line into Dixie

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_39

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Post by billg315 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:03 am

@HectorO wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Waaaaay far out (hence why I'm putting it in banter), but I always like to note in the Fall the first time I see the GFS flirt with snowflakes in NJ. The last run has NW NJ flirting with snowflakes (just some flurries) around Oct. 21. Will it happen? Who knows, but I love seeing snow on the models nearby for the first time since, well, May (remember that one on May 9?).

As long as its flakes and not a storm.  We all know how those winters turn out.

I thought the exact same thing Hector. Flurries are fine, but every time we get a significantly measurable snowfall before Dec. 1 it seems like the rest of the winter is pitiful. So I say "no thanks" to any pre-Thanksgiving snowstorms. lol.
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:10 am

Yes. I thought that too. The winter can’t seem to build on it. Does anyone know what JB is saying about this winter? I will say for me it has been a treat seeing mid to late Oct snow up here and having memories of Trick or Treating with the kids, walking around on snow from house to house
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:15 am

Folks,

LR model showing what could be a cold start to winter which woudl be typical Nina pattern.

Stratospheric coupling and elongation of the Polar Vortex

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 EjztjjfXcAE4ne6?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Look at all that high pressure over the artic and the NE Pacific by Alaska
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 EjztkunWkAAtLqV?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 EjztmNCWkAES0MQ?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Piggybacks what I posted and SROC explained so well about the polar vortex and ocean temperature map

Here it is again - look at how cold the Southern Hemisphere ocean are (all that blue) and teh massive blue along teh equatorial pacific
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 12 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:18 am

@dkodgis wrote:Yes. I thought that too. The winter can’t seem to build on it. Does anyone know what JB is saying about this winter?  I will say for me it has been a treat seeing mid to late Oct snow up here and having memories of Trick or Treating with the kids, walking around on snow from house to house

JB went colder from his pervious forecast back in August of a winter torch were we would be +3 to ?? above normal. He now (last week) said normal to +1 temps above normal with Normal snowfall. Where do I sign after the past couple??

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Post by docstox12 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:21 am

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/louisiana-meteorologist-jim-cantore-hurricane-delta-234309645.html

This is hilarious.Cantore is now looked at like he is a harbinger of doom. Didn't realize he has been with the WTC since 1986.He must have started there when he was 18 !
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Post by algae888 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:17 am

Yes mugs the Pacific looks way different than it has the last few years with those Cool Waters in the southern hemisphere and along the Equator. Don't really know how that affects our weather here. Here are some of the analogs that's some Mets are using for this winter.

"Since 1980, there are 8 Nina onset years defined using the Oceanic Nino Index. The years are 83-84, 88-89, 95-96, 98-99, 05-06, 07-08, 10-11 and 16-17."
As you can see some very good Winters in there along with some very bad ones. How good or bad our winter will be this year will be dependent on where the ridge sets up in the Pacific will it be north of Hawaii or will it go poleward into Alaska and the state of the Nao.
On a side note the squirrels around here have been very busy and in the last few weeks I've must have seen over a dozen dead ones in the street or Highway. Don't know how that factors into our Winter forecast but it looks like they are getting ready for a very bad winter.
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Post by GreyBeard on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:49 am

@docstox12 wrote:https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/louisiana-meteorologist-jim-cantore-hurricane-delta-234309645.html

This is hilarious.Cantore is now looked at like he is a harbinger of doom. Didn't realize he has been with the WTC since 1986.He must have started there when he was 18 !

Never was a big fan of Cantore but i did get chuckle out of this:



He is passionate about certain weather events particularly thunder snow where he says he'd rather witness that than win a $500 million jackpot.Whatever floats your boat as the saying goes.



IMHO, TWC has a tendency to stage their reporters for maximum dramatic effect of whatever event they are covering.Remember this fiasco?




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Post by billg315 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:31 pm

@algae888 wrote:Yes mugs the Pacific looks way different than it has the last few years with those Cool Waters in the southern hemisphere and along the Equator. Don't really know how that affects our weather here. Here are some of the analogs that's some Mets are using for this winter.

"Since 1980, there are 8 Nina onset years defined using the Oceanic Nino Index. The years are 83-84, 88-89, 95-96, 98-99, 05-06, 07-08, 10-11 and 16-17."
As you can see some very good Winters in there along with some very bad ones. How good or bad our winter will be this year will be dependent on where the ridge sets up in the Pacific will it be north of Hawaii or will it go poleward into Alaska and the state of the Nao.
On a side note the squirrels around here have been very busy and in the last few weeks I've must have seen over a dozen dead ones in the street or Highway. Don't know how that factors into our Winter forecast but it looks like they are getting ready for a very bad winter.

Bingo! I too have noticed an abundance of squirrel activity around my house/neighborhood. They are scurrying around like crazy and digging holes everywhere in my yard (much to my annoyance). Much more-so than I remember last year. I've heard this is a sign of a bad winter, but those types of things aren't exactly scientific, so who knows?
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