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Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:32 pm

Channel 7 mentioned the possibility last night, but today backing off saying it will be out to sea...too early for the media to be mentioning anything.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:34 pm

A closer look at the GFS 500mb map actually proves this model made a big trend toward the EURO/GGEM models. The trough is approaching the northeast but the timing is not exactly there yet. Very interesting.

Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Gfs_z500_sig_noram_22
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:07 pm

The 12z CMC has a potent storm off the coast. This is at 120 hours. It is heading this way but I am waiting for websites beyond 120 hours to update to see what it does

Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 I_nw_g1_EST_2013092412_120
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:16 pm

12z GGEM was a miss but still too close for comfort

Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Gem_mslp_pcpn_namer_22
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:26 pm

Waiting for 12z EURO
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:22 pm

From what I am hearing, 12z EURO is still a hit and is pretty robust with qpf
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:25 pm

Yup, 12z EURO is a hit. Lots of rain and surge for the coast. Not good.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:31 pm

Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 1234501_956675722745_1160842478_n

12z EURO hr 132
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Post by Quietace Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:08 pm

Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Ecm_ms11
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Ecm_ms10
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Ecm_ms12
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Ecm_ms11
12z Euro above
One thing to note about the GEM is that it is always way to aggressive on strength of the circulation and tends to really rapidly deepen the low which in this case could allow it to drive further away from the coast originally before engaging with the trough, allowing it make the left turn and on this run to far east miss us....just
The looking at the EURO is making me cringe....
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:36 pm

Oh crap this doesn't look good. If the shore folks like you Ace see this the towns will be deserted come Sunday Shocked - you poor people can't take another hit and let's hope it is not a prolonged storm but a quick moving one or one that stays off the coast - WAY OFF!!

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Post by Quietace Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:15 pm

18z GFS made a giant shift toward the EURO/ GGEM. All three majors now have a system developing somewhere within the vicinity of the east coast and now interacting with the front allowing a left turn back toward the coast somewhere.....how close the system gets to the coast i believe could be the question now as long as the 0z's hold.....
Giving me sad chills saying this....
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Gfs_ms10
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:27 pm

Okay,

Just heard Nick Gregory on Channel 5 and Channel 4 both said it is something to watch for Sun into Monday with what Frank said in last week that he saw on the GFS 6Z the other day with a trop storm forming in the GOM and crossing Fla coming out over the Atlantic and then up the coast. Both pro mets also noted that they "hope" it goes OTS and doesn't curve back to the coast -Nick said and his map showed area just east of NYC and channel 4 showed NYC - only time will tell but never say never with the weather - Sandy 2.0?? Maybe we spoke to soon - we shall see.....

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Post by Quietace Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:35 pm

amugs wrote:Okay,

Just heard Nick Gregory on Channel 5 and Channel 4 both said it is something to watch for Sun into Monday with what Frank said in last week that he saw on the GFS 6Z the other day with a trop storm forming in the GOM and crossing Fla coming out over the Atlantic and then up the coast. Both pro mets also noted that they "hope" it goes OTS and doesn't curve back to the coast  -Nick said and his map showed area just east of NYC and channel 4 showed NYC - only time will tell but never say never with the weather  - Sandy 2.0?? Maybe we spoke to soon - we shall see.....
Mugs,
Pro mets will down play the potential for a few more days until they know for certain it will be a hit or go OTS. So honestly just give credit they actually mentioned it. All we know now is that the big 3 all have a storm develop and make a left hook interacting with the cold front. Euro brings the system right into the area, and the GEM and GFS are just offshore with the intensity differing. The EURO is coming into its lock down zone so if the 0z run holds at the 0z/12z track i would be worried. But seeing how the GFS has drastically made shifts to the EURO Camp with every run today is even more a bit concerning to me that the EURO is handling the system correctly. The GFS is still as mentioned before a progressive biased model so it could still be wanting to locate the center to far to the east then it should be. I just pray that the intensity stays minimal with this system as most models keep it around (except of course the GEM) 990-995+mb.
Actually re-examining the GEM, the GFS is actually a hair closer to the coast with the LP
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:40 pm

I hear you Ace and I sadly have a bad feeling but I hope I'm wrong big time and I look forward to your messages and input on these models - still learning about them. What time is the 0z and 12 z runs? I actually have been looking at the penn state ewall site to look at these models ( not a psu guy after the scandal - lost all respect)

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Post by Quietace Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:47 pm

The 0z runs at different times, now the NAM runs at 930, GFS is 11:30, GEM (i think not 100% sure) is around 12:30 Euro 1:30 to 2 ish...and of course the 12z is 12 hours later. The Domestics run the 6z and 18z 6 hours after the fact of the 0z and 12z
Also look at NCEP site, and tropical tidbits
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:53 pm

Thanks kid - how is school n soccer?

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Post by Quietace Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:56 pm

amugs wrote:Thanks kid - how is school n soccer?
Schools tough with AP and honors classes up to about 3 am every night. And im still sitting the sideline with soccer because of health problems (my heart) and i hate every second of it and its literately killing me from the inside out not being out their with the guys...
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Post by aiannone Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:01 pm

Hey guys. I've been off for a while due to my busy schedule and the quiet weather and have mainly just been lurking the AWE board on FB but with this potential coastal storm late this weekend I will try to be on here as much as possible. Actually, I am going up to Vermont this Friday to attend instant decision day at Lyndon State College in Vermont for meteorology. Looks and sounds like an awesome school. I can't wait! Anyway, looking forward to talking with you all again!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:07 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Hey guys. I've been off for a while due to my busy schedule and the quiet weather and have mainly just been lurking the AWE board on FB but with this potential coastal storm late this weekend I will try to be on here as much as possible. Actually, I am going up to Vermont this Friday to attend instant decision day at Lyndon State College in Vermont for meteorology. Looks and sounds like an awesome school. I can't wait! Anyway, looking forward to talking with you all again!
Alex! Holy crap good luck
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:08 pm

Hey Mets - a phenomenal school for Meteorology - I had a student go there back in the late 90's early 2000's and he played soccer and studied meteorology - was All American in soccer and got a job with NOAA upon graduation - stationed in Alaska - you will love it - good luck!

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:10 pm

Alex - aka Mets - I have his info if you'd like to talk to him - private message me and I will get it to you again if you'd like.

Mugs

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Post by aiannone Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:32 pm

amugs wrote:Hey Mets - a phenomenal  school for Meteorology - I had a student go there back in the late 90's early 2000's and he played soccer and studied meteorology - was All American in soccer and got a job with NOAA upon graduation - stationed in Alaska - you will love it - good  luck!
Yea I think I am making the right choice going there. I like smaller schools and that's a big reason why I don't want to go to Penn state and I think I can get just as good of an education at Lyndon as well as smaller class sizes to help me learn and interact with professors. That's a big perk because the professors there have a lot of of connections which you need in the weather business. Anyway, I see no reason as of now why Lyndon would be a bad decision, and if any of think it would be a bad decision or heard bad things about it please let me know!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:12 am

The 00z GFS and 00z CMC were both out to sea with the system.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:41 am

0z GGEM is out already?
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Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:53 am

Euro and CMC have backed off tremendously on the strength of the block to the north with this potential system.  The GFS and CMC/Euro solns seem to have met in the middle of the past 24hrs, developing a system off the SE coast, but looks to be keeping the bulk of, if not the entire system OTS.  I am starting to feel 85% confident in this soln.  Here is the comparisons of last nights 0z's and yesterday eve 0z runs.  The big thing to take notice is to compare how strong the block is to our north from yesterdays runs to last nights.  Because the blocking isn't as strong on last nights run notice the position of the western edge of the ridge is.  As a result of     less blocking notice the position of the trough coming in, and more importantly the eastern edge of the trough does not buckle under the influence giving us a positively oriented trough axis which means progressive steering out in front of it.  
Euro 0z 9/24:
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Ecm_z500_anom_east_7
Euro 0z 9/25
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Ecm_z500_anom_east_6
Notice just how much stronger and further west the blocking to the north extends on yesterdays 0z.  Same for CMC
0z CMC 9/24
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Cmc_z500_uv_east_25
0z CMC 9/25
Weekend Sub/Tropical Storm Threat 9/30 Cmc_z500_uv_east_21
24-48 more hrs of consistency to the models and it looks like another beautiful weekend for most of our area is on tap, but I will hold off on that call until Thursday.

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