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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:11 am

I’m sorry, but there is literally almost nothing that excites me right now for the next few weeks other than predominantly cold rains unless you’re either on the far northern/western fringes of our forecast area, and even there, it’s not that exciting. Sure we have Atlantic blocking, which has been incredibly elusive in recent years, but when you’re blocking nothing but stale Pacific air without any Arctic tap it does us no good as the heights will likely just keep trying to connect from the western Atlantic and draw too much warmth northward even with favorable storm tracks. Our only hope, in my opinion, is that the NAO blocking can eventually retrograde westward far enough to start substantially altering the northern latitudes of the Pacific domain and allowing truly Arctic highs to get involved, or else I think our goose is cooked again this year. I don’t like what I’m seeing with the Stratosphere, and the tropics are certainly not playing nicely.

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Post by Snow88 Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:42 am

What a pattern on the GFS and Para moving forward. Gfs develops a negative epo by mid month along with a big block.

Storms after storms

Get ready because this pattern looks explosive
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Post by Snow88 Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:44 am

@rb924119 wrote:I’m sorry, but there is literally almost nothing that excites me right now for the next few weeks other than predominantly cold rains unless you’re either on the far northern/western fringes of our forecast area, and even there, it’s not that exciting. Sure we have Atlantic blocking, which has been incredibly elusive in recent years, but when you’re blocking nothing but stale Pacific air without any Arctic tap it does us no good as the heights will likely just keep trying to connect from the western Atlantic and draw too much warmth northward even with favorable storm tracks. Our only hope, in my opinion, is that the NAO blocking can eventually retrograde westward far enough to start substantially altering the northern latitudes of the Pacific domain and allowing truly Arctic highs to get involved, or else I think our goose is cooked again this year. I don’t like what I’m seeing with the Stratosphere, and the tropics are certainly not playing nicely.

Really ? There are alot of things to be excited about. Models have a better pna ridge out west along with the NAO going west based. Epo also trends favorable.

All we need is the cold air. We already have the storms.

The stratosphere right now is taking a huge beating
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Post by chief7 Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:18 am

@rb924119 wrote:I’m sorry, but there is literally almost nothing that excites me right now for the next few weeks other than predominantly cold rains unless you’re either on the far northern/western fringes of our forecast area, and even there, it’s not that exciting. Sure we have Atlantic blocking, which has been incredibly elusive in recent years, but when you’re blocking nothing but stale Pacific air without any Arctic tap it does us no good as the heights will likely just keep trying to connect from the western Atlantic and draw too much warmth northward even with favorable storm tracks. Our only hope, in my opinion, is that the NAO blocking can eventually retrograde westward far enough to start substantially altering the northern latitudes of the Pacific domain and allowing truly Arctic highs to get involved, or else I think our goose is cooked again this year. I don’t like what I’m seeing with the Stratosphere, and the tropics are certainly not playing nicely.

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Post by chief7 Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:18 am

Definition of a few weeks

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:20 am

Ukie was aggressive 0Z last night too for NW of the 95.  If the ULL gets to the NY state border before transferring the energy completely, then this snow projection will be nonsense.  We just don't have the dynamics nor the antecedent air mass to offset that IMO.  A few inches NEPA, NW NJ, and the I84 crew is possible though unless we get that earlier transfer.  In that case significant snow definitely on the table for those areas.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:27 am

@rb924119 wrote:I’m sorry, but there is literally almost nothing that excites me right now for the next few weeks other than predominantly cold rains unless you’re either on the far northern/western fringes of our forecast area, and even there, it’s not that exciting. Sure we have Atlantic blocking, which has been incredibly elusive in recent years, but when you’re blocking nothing but stale Pacific air without any Arctic tap it does us no good as the heights will likely just keep trying to connect from the western Atlantic and draw too much warmth northward even with favorable storm tracks. Our only hope, in my opinion, is that the NAO blocking can eventually retrograde westward far enough to start substantially altering the northern latitudes of the Pacific domain and allowing truly Arctic highs to get involved, or else I think our goose is cooked again this year. I don’t like what I’m seeing with the Stratosphere, and the tropics are certainly not playing nicely.

I agree with you in that if we get absolutely no cooperation with the PAC in the EPO domain, then the block in Davis Straight just traps the PAC air.  It can still snow of course and probably will, but the KU potential is lost.  You'd be looking at light to at most moderate chances and few and far between.  If however the cork opens up in the EPO then things will get interesting as the colder air can bleed into the Eastern US.  I don't trust the models post 10 days ensembles included, so I'm cautiously optimistic.  I also don't think anyone has a good handle of the effects of this SSWE at this time.  It's better to be guarded right now.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:45 am

0Z Euro gets the energy past NY State border and then surface low is tucked.  Mid-levels get well above freezing.  This is the other side of the coin from CMC and UKIE.  Let's watch how fast the departing storm moves into the 50/50 area.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:47 am

Those N&W of NYC should prepare for a possible significant snowfall on the 3rd. There’s agreement among models for a low to track off the coast and bring a stripe of moderate to heavy snow across NEPA, SNY, and NWNJ. Boston will also get in on some of the action. It will be interesting to see if this trends colder so that places closer to I-95 (mostly N&W of there) see snow.

Keep in mind just the day prior, January 2nd, majority of us will see rain and temps surpassing 50 degrees. The storm on the 3rd is working with a moderated and mild air mass, so somehow the cold air needs to get pulled into the core of the low pressure system as it forms off the coast. This certainly is no “bombogenesis” but natural cyclogenesis will take place.

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It’s a very weak low along with weak HP to the north. Cold air is absent from the region, but it’s cold ENOUGH near I-84 and places just south of there for it to snow. Climo is helping those areas!

Let’s see how this trends the next couple of days. My guess is we’ll see a cold trend begin, because models are under doing the strength of the low pressure system at this juncture. However, I don’t think it gets cold enough for I-95. We will see little to no snow from this. I am talking about just N&W of I-95 (think Morris, Warren and Hunterdon counties) who may benefit from a cold trend.

6 or more inches of snow, or a Mothrazilla, is the opportunity for those near I-84.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:51 am

Beyond the 3rd, the pattern is heading into one of the more extreme -NAO I’ve ever seen. The high latitude blocking that is forecasted to develop will first develop near Greenland then SLOWLY progress/expand westward. Once the higher heights get into the PNA/EPO domains, we’ll be game for extreme cold and high impact snowstorms to impact our area. I am sticking to the timeline I called out earlier which is after January 10th. The 10th-15th will be active with possible snow, but after the 15th is when we may enter a historic period with a -NAO coupled with SSWE and a -EPO.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:06 am

@Snow88 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I’m sorry, but there is literally almost nothing that excites me right now for the next few weeks other than predominantly cold rains unless you’re either on the far northern/western fringes of our forecast area, and even there, it’s not that exciting. Sure we have Atlantic blocking, which has been incredibly elusive in recent years, but when you’re blocking nothing but stale Pacific air without any Arctic tap it does us no good as the heights will likely just keep trying to connect from the western Atlantic and draw too much warmth northward even with favorable storm tracks. Our only hope, in my opinion, is that the NAO blocking can eventually retrograde westward far enough to start substantially altering the northern latitudes of the Pacific domain and allowing truly Arctic highs to get involved, or else I think our goose is cooked again this year. I don’t like what I’m seeing with the Stratosphere, and the tropics are certainly not playing nicely.

Really ? There are alot of things to be excited about. Models have a better pna ridge out west along with the NAO going west based. Epo also trends favorable.

All we need is the cold air. We already have the storms.

The stratosphere right now is taking a huge beating

Unless you can substantially retract the Pacific jet, any PNA ridge spike is going to be transient and generally lower amplitude because there is going to be a firehouse of energy blasting into the western North America. This is also why we continue to flood North America with Pacific air. Additionally, because there is so much momentum in the mid-latitude belt of the Pacific domain, I’m quite fearful that the retrogression of the NAO domain blocking is stopped short of making it into the PNA/EPO domains and ends up falling apart. This is already being hinted at by the modeling, in my opinion, and if it plays out that way, that will hurt. Regarding the Strat, yes, it’s taking a hit, but that doesn’t guarantee us anything. The vortex could end up over Eurasia and leave us with more of the same, and unfortunately, that’s what looks more likely than not to me based on what I’m seeing.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:08 am

@chief7 wrote:Definition of a few weeks

Extending from Week 2 into Week 3 (beyond the temporal range of most guidance)

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:12 am

@heehaw453 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I’m sorry, but there is literally almost nothing that excites me right now for the next few weeks other than predominantly cold rains unless you’re either on the far northern/western fringes of our forecast area, and even there, it’s not that exciting. Sure we have Atlantic blocking, which has been incredibly elusive in recent years, but when you’re blocking nothing but stale Pacific air without any Arctic tap it does us no good as the heights will likely just keep trying to connect from the western Atlantic and draw too much warmth northward even with favorable storm tracks. Our only hope, in my opinion, is that the NAO blocking can eventually retrograde westward far enough to start substantially altering the northern latitudes of the Pacific domain and allowing truly Arctic highs to get involved, or else I think our goose is cooked again this year. I don’t like what I’m seeing with the Stratosphere, and the tropics are certainly not playing nicely.

I agree with you in that if we get absolutely no cooperation with the PAC in the EPO domain, then the block in Davis Straight just traps the PAC air.  It can still snow of course and probably will, but the KU potential is lost.  You'd be looking at light to at most moderate chances and few and far between.  If however the cork opens up in the EPO then things will get interesting as the colder air can bleed into the Eastern US.  I don't trust the models post 10 days ensembles included, so I'm cautiously optimistic.  I also don't think anyone has a good handle of the effects of this SSWE at this time.  It's better to be guarded right now.

Therein lies our differences, I think - I don’t think our retrograding NAO blocking is going to be able make it far enough west with enough amplitude to substantially alter the Pacific domains based on what I’m seeing. I think it ends up falling apart, and any western North American ridge that does spike will certainly be transient and capped at lower amplitude during the process of NAO domain ridging retrogression. However, if the opposite occurs, then yes, we are the same page Smile

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:27 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Those N&W of NYC should prepare for a possible significant snowfall on the 3rd. There’s agreement among models for a low to track off the coast and bring a stripe of moderate to heavy snow across NEPA, SNY, and NWNJ. Boston will also get in on some of the action. It will be interesting to see if this trends colder so that places closer to I-95 (mostly N&W of there) see snow.

Keep in mind just the day prior, January 2nd, majority of us will see rain and temps surpassing 50 degrees. The storm on the 3rd is working with a moderated and mild air mass, so somehow the cold air needs to get pulled into the core of the low pressure system as it forms off the coast. This certainly is no “bombogenesis” but natural cyclogenesis will take place.

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It’s a very weak low along with weak HP to the north. Cold air is absent from the region, but it’s cold ENOUGH near I-84 and places just south of there for it to snow. Climo is helping those areas!

Let’s see how this trends the next couple of days. My guess is we’ll see a cold trend begin, because models are under doing the strength of the low pressure system at this juncture. However, I don’t think it gets cold enough for I-95. We will see little to no snow from this. I am talking about just N&W of I-95 (think Morris, Warren and Hunterdon counties) who may benefit from a cold trend.

6 or more inches of snow, or a Mothrazilla, is the opportunity for those near I-84.

Respectfully disagree, Frank, I think this ends up trending a bit warmer as we get closer, and anywhere south of an east-west line along the NY/PA border will be completely out of the game. With your primaries already cutting west without any established block in a modified airmass, the warmth should likely be able to surge further northward regardless of surface storm track. Heehaw has done a great job of highlighting this issue, and to be honest, I think the primaries will end up getting further north and west in time, similarly to Gail.

As for the extended, I again respectfully disagree *based on the difference of how I think the blocking will evolve*. As I said to Heehaw, I don’t think the blocking makes it far enough west to alter the Pacific domains. If that turns out to be incorrect, then yeah, buckle up lol

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:13 am

Rb,
A west base NAO does wonders to the higher than normal chances of snow in the heart of winter. We do not need 15 degree cold air to snow just cold enough which again the heart of winter Jan and to mid Feb is certainly attainable.
Negative West Based NAO along with a 3 SD sigma AO can allow for 50/50 lows, HP over NE Can to get locked in, slow storms down and press them off the coast from cutting to our West.
We have a strong PAC JET but that doesn't not mean we can not snow here. Heck 1993-94 we had a Solid NEG PNA and we did well that winter as the Baroclonic zone set up to our south by the DelMarva. KU chasing we need a PNA ridge yes with the AO and NAO tandem.
But we have a muted overall MJO in phase 2 then 3 which is cold to menza menza in 3.
SSW can send the PV to Siberia true if it splits and then other piece to AK or Kalamazoo MI then we have just very cd and dry weather.
I see that as opportunities we have not seen since 17-18 but possibly better.
Time will tell but many factors in my opinion are pointing us in the positive direction.


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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:37 am

@amugs wrote:Rb,
A west base NAO does wonders to the higher than normal chances of snow in the heart of winter. We do not need 15 degree cold air to snow just cold enough which again the heart of winter Jan and to mid Feb is certainly attainable.
Negative West Based NAO along with a 3 SD sigma AO can allow for 50/50 lows, HP over NE Can to get locked in, slow storms down and press them off the coast from cutting to our West.
We have a strong PAC JET but that doesn't not mean we can not snow here. Heck 1993-94 we had a Solid NEG PNA and we did well that winter as the Baroclonic zone set up to our south by the DelMarva. KU chasing we need a PNA ridge yes with the AO and NAO tandem.
But we have a muted overall MJO in phase 2 then 3 which is cold to menza menza in 3.
SSW can send the PV to Siberia true if it splits and then other piece to AK or Kalamazoo MI then we have just very cd and dry weather.
I see that as opportunities we have not seen since 17-18 but possibly better.
Time will tell but many factors in my opinion are pointing us in the positive direction.


Yes, I agree with you that it can, but you can’t just look at one or two signals and automatically assume it will snow. It’s all connected. Sure, we can snow in a modified airmass during the climatological minimum, but when you routinely start with low-levels that are +3-6C and are relying purely on dynamics/any remaining stale cold air to cool that column without any connection to truly arctic air, and a pattern that doesn’t support that connection, finding snow will still be difficult, especially along the coast.

Regarding your 93-94 analog, we had pacific help, as the EPO/WPO averaged moderately negative, and the PNA was actually slightly positive from Dec-February, coupled with a negative AO. So that allowed truly arctic air masses to be driven into the CONUS and be reinforced. This year, all of our blocking is originating from DOWNSTREAM, which means Atlantic influence on top of Pacific influence. Best example I can think of to demonstrate this as a problem, look at your forecast surface pressure anomalies; they remain to our north and east with nothing but low pressure to our north and west. That’s not a recipe for true cold to press. It’s a recipe that allows for any modified cold to retreat. Until we get a press from the north and west, I do not think that our fortunes will change, and I really don’t see evidence of getting sustained higher pressure to our north and west right now.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:44 am

I shouldn’t say “retreat”, I should say “moderate”.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:10 am

FWIW the 12Z GFS stops the ULL where it needs to be stopped for NW of the 95 to see snow. Slightly north of Pittsburgh. I still think it needs to be under Pittsburgh due the antecedent air mass.

This is the ball game right here IMO. Where does this ULL get stopped. It's not set in stone yet IMO and as I said the block maybe underappreciated by the models right now.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:58 am

This set up is very similar to Dec 5th.  We had that surge of warm air ahead of what was a pretty darn near perfect storm track on or around the BM.  BUT like we are seeing with this set up the pre storm air mass is warm.  Quote from Dec 4th:

@sroc4 wrote:Bottom line is the lack of cold air at the surface and just above is killing us. The freezing line ahead of the storm extends way up beyond the US Canadian boarder.  Yes the dynamics are great but there is nowhere to draw cold air in from. Don’t hold your breath for this one.  

Fun to track though.  Cheers!


The only difference is the freezing line at the surface is not nearly as far away.  In fact its only about 100-150miles away vs 300miles away in early Dec.  And the freezing line in the mid levels isn't nearly as far away either.  With that storm My neck of the woods was very close to a change over as the storm pulled away.  We had the occasional mixing occur. So what's the point?  Well one month later we have climatology on our side.  For places like the coastal plain its still not a likely scenario for accumulating snow or even white rain, although still possible, but just off the coast needs to pay attention to the details and timing of said details. There still are diff between global models at 500 and 700.  Like the system early Dec exact positioning and strength at 700mb will likely dictate if anyone off the coast snows and/or accumulates.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:14 pm

12Z GFS is pretty optimistic for NWNJ and the HV. I'm not sure that 10 over my house is legit, but I'll happily take 6.

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:52 pm

GFS COMING AROUNG - I 84 AND NORTH WOULD GET 6" ON THIS LOOK
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Coming around to EURO and UKMET idea for a further southern snow line of I -80 North. Well see.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:24 pm

[quote="CPcantmeasuresnow"]12Z GFS is pretty optimistic for NWNJ and the HV. I'm not sure that 10 over my house is legit, but I'll happily take 6.

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12Z CMC prefers the Hyde, Jim area of MHV

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:26 pm

FWIW The 12Z Euro looks like 12Z Ukie from a couple of aspects. Takes the 850 mb low and drifts it east not ene like it was doing before. Euro was also ramping the storm up and hugging the coast previously which it's not doing now. The 850 mb is in a favorable location and it's a colder solution. Not much in the way of snow, but it wouldn't take much consolidation to change that in a hurry.

I think the models are starting to appreciate the block a bit more.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:37 pm

Just a enough cold air coming from the high in New Brunswick and just enough of a block from the 50/50 low?  Maybe so.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:46 pm

In terms of chances before 1/10 guidance is clearly colder now for 1/5-1/8 than the torch it was showing a few days ago. You take the +10 days out with a grain of salt.

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