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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:47 pm

Def a thread the needle type event, but we've seen it happen before.  All we can do is track it and hope for the best.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:48 pm

This look has been showing up on several op runs now for past 2 days.  Also support on EPS.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Euro26

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:59 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:In terms of chances before 1/10 guidance is clearly colder now for 1/5-1/8 than the torch it was showing a few days ago.  You take the +10 days out with a grain of salt.

We’re headed toward a very active cold and snowy pattern in my opinion. I understand Rays concern with the Pac, but I think it’s going to improve JUST enough to promote eastern US cold/snow chances.

Also, I will look to start a new thread for the event on the 3rd sometime tomorrow. But if anyone gets to it today, be my guest!!

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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 31, 2020 3:59 pm

It looks like models are finally starting to catch on to the blocking Heights have lowered significantly for our region as a piece of the polar vortex breaks off and sits in Ontario and Quebec and that's not in Fantasyland right around day 7 looks like our good pattern is being pushed up in time the new Euro weeklies just came out and it's an epic pattern right through the end of January a once in every 10-year pattern get ready folks here we go
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:03 pm

18z Nam came in colder for the Sunday system and now has accumulating snow for the city north and west.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:26 pm

@algae888 wrote:It looks like models are finally starting to catch on to the blocking Heights have lowered significantly for our region as a piece of the polar vortex breaks off and sits in Ontario and Quebec and that's not in Fantasyland right around day 7 looks like our good pattern is being pushed up in time the new Euro weeklies just came out and it's an epic pattern right through the end of January a once in every 10-year pattern get ready folks here we go

Al you have bought a ticket for tjis Winter Train?
Who else is ready to get on board?
Look at this map and sorry but you'll be stuck in a frozen hell if not. The block is moving up as Al stated and you get a 50/50 from these storms and log jam up the hotlantic and...look at this map EPS. 2009-10, 10-11 , 77-78 look here peeps.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:13 pm

I am ready but cautiously optimistic as sroc says. Hoping we might see something down here Sunday but it may just be too warm, we will see.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:In terms of chances before 1/10 guidance is clearly colder now for 1/5-1/8 than the torch it was showing a few days ago.  You take the +10 days out with a grain of salt.

We’re headed toward a very active cold and snowy pattern in my opinion. I understand Rays concern with the Pac, but I think it’s going to improve JUST enough to promote eastern US cold/snow chances.

Also, I will look to start a new thread for the event on the 3rd sometime tomorrow. But if anyone gets to it today, be my guest!!
I havent heard you say this in quite sometime, maybe a year or two, lets hope you are right. I much prefer snow over rain.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:27 pm

Here he comes PEEPS MR PV Doing a BANANA SPLIT!
Off Tweeter

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Eqmx7nMW4AE5IPT?format=jpg&name=large

From DEC 23rd and right on cue
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Ep9UiCwXcAASwnD?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by mwilli Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:28 pm

just looked the gfs model long range. check out 1/15 rain off coast/snow ny/nnj looks big right now happy new year

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:35 am

If there is a Mothrazilla Sunday, remember that almost three years ago to the day we had another come to town

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t876-january-4th-mothrazilla-final-call-observations?highlight=Mothrazilla
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:09 am

@dkodgis wrote:If there is a Mothrazilla Sunday, remember that almost three years ago to the day we had another come to town

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t876-january-4th-mothrazilla-final-call-observations?highlight=Mothrazilla

That storm was a brilliant high end Godzilla for the Jersey Shore. 😍😍😍

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:31 pm

@amugs wrote:Here he comes PEEPS MR PV Doing a BANANA SPLIT!
Off Tweeter

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Eqmx7nMW4AE5IPT?format=jpg&name=large

From DEC 23rd and right on cue
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Ep9UiCwXcAASwnD?format=jpg&name=medium

If the Strat PV splits, which is still a big IF in my opinion, we are going to love mid-Jan into most of February. Regardless, the Wave 1 warming / displacement of the PV will give us a nice 10-day stretch of winter weather beginning around January 8th.

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Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 02, 2021 7:46 am

I am thinking this will in part present itself in lower temps. The reason I say this is I see temps still at upper 30s and low 20s up here in the look aheads
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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:21 am

A couple things I noticed from the long range GFS regarding next week (1/9), and I wondered if someone can weigh in and tell me if I'm interpreting things correctly.  

The GFS has always been showing some kind of system coming off the Carolinas, but now seems to more consistently a storm with cold air involved, as evidenced by the snow developing in southern and western Virginia and northern North Carolina.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs00z10

In fact, the latest run shows a stronger low forming producing some heavy snow into those areas.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs6z110
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs6z111



And the lower levels appear to be cold.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs70010
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs85010



And it also looks like a trough forms and TRIES to swing negative, and in fact does, but just a little too late.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs_z511



Still a swing and a miss, if I'm even seeing this correct, but it looks like things are trying to happen.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:16 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:A couple things I noticed from the long range GFS regarding next week (1/9), and I wondered if someone can weigh in and tell me if I'm interpreting things correctly.  

The GFS has always been showing some kind of system coming off the Carolinas, but now seems to more consistently a storm with cold air involved, as evidenced by the snow developing in southern and western Virginia and northern North Carolina.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs00z10

In fact, the latest run shows a stronger low forming producing some heavy snow into those areas.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs6z110
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs6z111



And the lower levels appear to be cold.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs70010
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs85010



And it also looks like a trough forms and TRIES to swing negative, and in fact does, but just a little too late.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs_z511



Still a swing and a miss, if I'm even seeing this correct, but it looks like things are trying to happen.

For sure there have been signals amongst the guidance for that time frame.  The 500mb trough needs to go negative as it hits the coast to guide the system up the coast, otherwise it's going to be pushed right out to sea.  The other unknown is how much cold air will be available for this when/if we get to that point.

So the two things we don't really know are:  1) Will this trough stay neutral and this storm pushes out to sea.  2) will the southern stream interact with northern stream to supply more cold air and make it a powerful storm that gets guided up the coast.  

At this time it's just a window of interest.  In a blocking situation where the atmosphere is not progressive the models aren't going to be much help with better clues until probably day 5.  I'll say this take the under on the temps for whatever models are showing 7 days from now in -NAO/-AO pattern.

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfs34

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:23 pm

Heehaw I concur - with this GEFS look its going to be a very int3rsting and fun tracking time.
Looks like we have storms:
3-4h
Other upcoming time frames
8th
12th
15/16th

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 EqvuvQbXIAI-hcj?format=png&name=medium

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:25 pm

MJO forcing set to move into 7-8-1-2 as per AM tweet - here is the chart

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Eqvja4dW8AAnDq-?format=jpg&name=medium


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Post by Irish Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:10 pm

@amugs wrote:MJO forcing set to move into 7-8-1-2 as per AM tweet - here is the chart

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Eqvja4dW8AAnDq-?format=jpg&name=medium


What are the best numbers for positive setups?

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:24 pm

@amugs wrote:MJO forcing set to move into 7-8-1-2 as per AM tweet - here is the chart

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Eqvja4dW8AAnDq-?format=jpg&name=medium


It was supposed to do this three weeks ago and it never did. I don’t trust these forecasts, as I’m pretty sure they’re based on the CFS which has a known bias of being too progressive in the tropics. To date, the standing wave over the Maritime Continent has ruled the roost regarding these circulation forecasts and their expected impacts, and given the status of things, I don’t see that changing.

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Post by algae888 Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:33 pm

The mjo is a non-factor this year as it's been basically in The Circle of Death since the first of December
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:34 pm

Pretty darned close to what we'd want for next weekend.  Notice the northern stream just tug on the southern stream and pull it back.  Just a a few hours too late in this case, but again with the -NAO it makes this much more of a possibility than w/out it.  

18Z Para GFS
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 17 Gfspar12

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:50 pm

The 12z CMC was a big blow for eastern CT and the cape with godzilla there, super narrow miss here but southern jersey gets a mothrazilla. I will be happy for them if they get it as they rarely see a good storm. What do you guys think about the 12z CMC for 9th? Will it be a threat for the area for a good size storm? Asking cuz I am supposed be going somewhere they day and want to plan accordingly. Though I can drive in pretty much anything, it's others I am concerned about.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:35 pm

It's going to probably get interesting in regard to tracking here in a hurry. Several models are starting to like the threat for 1/8 and i don't think that's the only one we'll be looking at either. We'll see if guidance continues to favor 1/8 and I think we'll know soon if this is legit or not.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:26 am

Every 4 days we have threats on the GFS seeing rhe block. Pro Mets Simon Lee, Alex Borehem and Petong saying this block could be liken to 2010 or greater. Time will tell.
JMAN to far out to tell, one storm at a time. Could be Monthra here as well.
Get your sleep folks its going to be a busy period. And who said no snow rhe next two weeks?? LOL.
4 years of lowest solar in recorded history, extremely small sample, showing some muscle here. Cosmic rays are high levels for years now as well.
Volcanoes erupting, percolating, EQ rumbling. Going to be wild folks. Be prepared and not scared.

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