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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by Bkdude on Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:57 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@essexcountypete wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Also, the mobile version of this forum is so much better than trying to use the desktop version on your phone. It only took me three years to figure that one out.

Mobile version, meaning there's an app?

No app.

But if you’re on the desktop version using your phone, in the bottom right of the page you should see a mobile version option. If you’re already using mobile version then in the upper right you should see a menu where you can select web version. But mobile >>> web

I know what you mean. Mobile version you actually see the scroll. Godzilla graphics
Much better


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Post by Snow88 on Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:04 am

Euro shows an interesting scenario

The storm on the 12th is squashed to the south for the Northeast but the NS energy on the backside was too late to catch up to the energy for the 12th dug and formed its own storm and hits Philly northward with snow
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:50 am

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 ErDhY97W4AE9R7T?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Storm chances and cold inbound

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:51 am

@amugs wrote:Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 ErDhY97W4AE9R7T?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Storm chances and cold inbound

fingers crossed!
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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:54 am


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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:01 am

Better pray this doesn't happen - this is very, very, very cold!

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 Eq_98OIXEAA3rVc?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:11 am

@amugs wrote:
Need to keep an eye out for that. A longer than expected Strat warming event could mean total destruction and displacement of the vortex. That would pretty much ensure a cold and stormy pattern setting up long term.
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Post by crippo84 on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:13 am

@amugs wrote:Better pray this doesn't happen - this is very, very, very cold!

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 Eq_98OIXEAA3rVc?format=jpg&name=medium

Pardon my ignorance, but wouldn't a pattern such as this scream suppression depression with bone dry cold air?
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Post by phil155 on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:40 am

@crippo84 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Better pray this doesn't happen - this is very, very, very cold!

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 Eq_98OIXEAA3rVc?format=jpg&name=medium

Pardon my ignorance, but wouldn't a pattern such as this scream suppression depression with bone dry cold air?

This pattern certainly looks like it could be rather suppressive and lead to quite a bit of disappointment

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:47 am

You want a cross polar flow? Well here is your EPO coming to play nice with teh AO and NAO - the overt the top height rise is definitely for real and something to be reckoned with!! 201-3-14-15 shades - lots of Northern branch clippers that will be swinging around and into the US.

Hints of some bitter cold after the 20th. Put a snowpack on the ground and CP maybe crying UNCLE!!

From BAMWx

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 ErDwK3fXAAYABMu?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:50 am

@Phil and Crippo - not necessarily - lots of Northern Energy will swing through, remember Southern Branch is active with warm anomalous waters in the GOM and Atlantic. Is it possible, yes time will tell.


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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:46 pm

GEFS ENS - Sign me up for the 12th storm
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 1610463600-U7QjtxXqSUk

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Post by Irish on Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:01 pm

@amugs wrote:GEFS ENS - Sign me up for the 12th storm
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 1610463600-U7QjtxXqSUk

Looks like the coast might get screwed again?

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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:10 pm

@amugs wrote:GEFS ENS - Sign me up for the 12th storm
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 1610463600-U7QjtxXqSUk

Yeah Mugs. Still liking that time period too. Love the upper air pattern as guidance is showing. With so many vortexes flying around it's going to be hard for any solution to become clear anytime soon. I expect a lot of hits/misses in the days to come, but if we can just get lucky with the spacing of the short waves...

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:34 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@amugs wrote:GEFS ENS - Sign me up for the 12th storm
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 1610463600-U7QjtxXqSUk

Yeah Mugs.  Still liking that time period too.  Love the upper air pattern as guidance is showing.  With so many vortexes flying around it's going to be hard for any solution to become clear anytime soon.  I expect a lot of hits/misses in the days to come, but if we can just get lucky with the spacing of the short waves...

Despite the big picture looking decent the more individual vort maxes invloved the more precise everything has to come together. Coordinating 2 or 3 pieces of energy in a good pattern vs coordinating 5-6 pieces is exponentially more challenging. If just one is in a bad spot it induces the chain reaction to reshuffling the rest. And as we all know small changes at 500 have big implications on the surface. We shall see.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:55 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:
@amugs wrote:GEFS ENS - Sign me up for the 12th storm
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 1610463600-U7QjtxXqSUk

Yeah Mugs.  Still liking that time period too.  Love the upper air pattern as guidance is showing.  With so many vortexes flying around it's going to be hard for any solution to become clear anytime soon.  I expect a lot of hits/misses in the days to come, but if we can just get lucky with the spacing of the short waves...

Despite the big picture looking decent the more individual vort maxes invloved the more precise everything has to come together.  Coordinating 2 or 3 pieces of energy in a good pattern vs coordinating 5-6 pieces is exponentially more challenging. If just one is in a bad spot it induces the chain reaction to reshuffling the rest.  And as we all know small changes at 500 have big implications on the surface.  We shall see.  

Exactly right. I am eager to see how models look in a couple of days regarding the 12th. I’m curiously optimistic

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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:55 pm

Not a bad signal for 7 days out.  As stated there are too many short waves in the kitchen as modeled to know if this will have any meaningful impact to our area.  This is not at all uncommon for deep -AO.

I always like to look for relaxation periods as times of opportunity too.

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Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:20 am

The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:16 am

Despite Rays doom and gloom forecast here is a “ray” of hope: Isotherm’s “Mid Winer checkpoint”

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 11b29810
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 C637a110

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:42 am

Every meteorologist and weather outlet i follow is calling for a cold and stormy period from about jan 11th thru the end of the month. Around jan 15th a lobe of the PV will be anchored in south eastern canada with a cross polar flow we will see the coldest weather thus far this winter with well below normal temps. Snowstorms are always a uncertainty but i believe we should have at least one. Storm tracks will not be to our west and there is overwhelming evidence that areas south of us have a higher probability of snow than areas north and west of us as suppression is a greater risk than cutters.
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Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:51 am

We also do not want split of the PV rather a weakening and displacement. The former almost always benefits euraisa the later north america.
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Post by hyde345 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:45 am

@rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.
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Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:58 am

@sroc4 wrote:Despite Rays doom and gloom forecast here is a “ray” of hope: Isotherm’s “Mid Winer checkpoint”

Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 11b29810
Long Range Discussion 20(20)  (Ha!) - Page 19 C637a110

I see what you did there lol Tom thinks we flip in the beginning of February, leaving us with three weeks of “winter”; I’m a bit faster and think it starts turning the other way after the 20th of January, or thereabouts, during which time I don’t think we collectively cash in on anything big, as alluded to in my previous post.

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Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:01 am

@algae888 wrote:Every meteorologist and weather outlet i follow is calling for a cold and stormy period from about jan 11th thru the end of the month. Around jan 15th a lobe of the PV will be anchored in south eastern canada with a cross polar flow we will see the coldest weather thus far this winter with well below normal temps. Snowstorms are always a uncertainty but i believe we should have at least one. Storm tracks will not be to our west and there is overwhelming evidence that areas south of us have a higher probability of snow than areas north and west of us as suppression is a greater risk than cutters.

I’m not saying we won’t see cold and be stormy. What I’m saying is I don’t think we see a lot of overlap between the two, enough to yield a big snow event for the majority of our posters. I think the big snow event (14-16th) will be largely north and west of us. Just one man’s opinion here.

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Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:05 am

@hyde345 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:The 14th-16th period I think is the only legitimate threat before we revert back to an even crappier overall pattern (again), and I fear that those of us south and east of the I-81 Corridor will largely miss out yet again as too much warm air will get involved in a retrograding pattern, and should result in a storm track to our west.

Secondly, I continue to remain unenthused by the current Stratospheric prospects, as it looks to me like Eurasia should be much more favored than we are to receive the disrupted vortex overhead.

What about the 12-13th period? Both Euro and cmc showing possibility of a wintry event. All you ever talk about is how things aren't going to work out and yet I stand at 19 inches so far and we have alot of winter left.

That’s not fair to say - I never said zero snow with any event this season. I’ve always been discussing my thoughts within the context of the storms’ evolutions and where I thought the snowfall maxima would be, and both times I’ve been correct. I don’t do backyard forecasts specifically for this reason lol

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