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Long Range Discussion 20(20) (Ha!)

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Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:55 am

Heehaw, I have a friend who lives in Glenmore, Pa. i think that is maybe 38 miles from you? He has had a few dustings and a few inches 2x along with one drop of four inches. He is in Chester County. Amazing how some get a bit and some get nothing. Doc and CP in winters past have gotten good snow and at the same time I got bupkis just 25 miles away. I wish we could move around God’s little acre to where the snow is.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:46 pm

@dkodgis wrote:Heehaw, I have a friend who lives in Glenmore, Pa. i think that is maybe 38 miles from you?  He has had a few dustings and a few inches 2x along with one drop of four inches. He is in Chester County. Amazing how some get a bit and some get nothing. Doc and CP in winters past have gotten good snow and at the same time I got bupkis just 25 miles away. I wish we could move around God’s little acre to where the snow is.

Your friend is about 55-60 miles to my southwest. The elevated parts of Chester County can exceed 850' ASL and those areas probably average close to 40" of snow per year. I'm to the east of Lake Nockamixon at about 600' or so ASL. I average about 35" or so. I was happy with December other than the Grinch Storm of course, but January has been tough on us snow lovers past several years.

But to your point it's amazing how just 50 miles can make all the difference sometimes.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:42 pm

12Z Euro definitely took some steps towards a bigger event.  Too late in terms of development, but the 500 mb looks better. Just have to watch it. Shortwave should be coming ashore within next 36 hours or so...

The ridge which blows up the storm is a bit too far east for my liking and of course the TPV lobe is above the trough. If it can just move up or back a bit might be more room for northerly adjustment. Let's see what EPS looks like in a bit...

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:51 pm

The GFS family still tries to keep Thursday interesting.  We have seen many such cases of ULL energy making it much further north than originally modeled as of late.  Dunno if that applies to this, but this is damn healthy looking with a closed off ULL underneath us.  Basically if the storm can mature and close off like this then we'd be in for something especially if it nudges north. 4+ days out still so who knows...

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:27 pm

Pretty consistent with 1/28. GFS and CMC still showing a big storm. If we can get the ULL to exit closer to Ocean City MD instead of VA Beach that'd be pretty big I think. The TPV lobe in Quebec CA will probably make or break this. 4+ days out so adjustments are likely.

As it is now I'd say SE Jersey might be looking good. You guys deserve it down there and pulling for you.

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Post by toople Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:57 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Pretty consistent with 1/28.  GFS and CMC still showing a big storm.  If we can get the ULL to exit closer to Ocean City MD instead of VA Beach that'd be pretty big I think.  The TPV lobe in Quebec CA will probably make or break this.  4+ days out so adjustments are likely.

As it is now I'd say SE Jersey might be looking good.  You guys deserve it down there and pulling for you.

If I remember correctly, the storm in Jan 26th was modeled to go south of here and than eventually trended north.  Do you think the storm in Jan 28th could trend north too or do you think the storm is alot different than the Jan 26th storm?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:55 am

I think DC to Philly is the bullseye for the Thursday storm, and some models last night came in even more south that would take Philly out of the big snows. Clearly not a good trend for our area. However, we have plenty of board members here from southern NJ and it’s definitely likely they’ll see something from this. We’ll still track it regardless Smile

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:01 am

@toople wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Pretty consistent with 1/28.  GFS and CMC still showing a big storm.  If we can get the ULL to exit closer to Ocean City MD instead of VA Beach that'd be pretty big I think.  The TPV lobe in Quebec CA will probably make or break this.  4+ days out so adjustments are likely.

As it is now I'd say SE Jersey might be looking good.  You guys deserve it down there and pulling for you.

If I remember correctly, the storm in Jan 26th was modeled to go south of here and than eventually trended north.  Do you think the storm in Jan 28th could trend north too or do you think the storm is alot different than the Jan 26th storm?

The GEFS is very consistent about blowing up a big storm that tracks north of VA Beach.  At this range and with such consistency I'm starting to believe it.  How much precip gets thrown NW of the I95 corridor is tough to say now, but points SE of that towards the Jersey coast are in the game for this one IMO.  The Euro is starting to get more inline IMO.

In order for the precip to be more expansive I want to see the trough tilt more negatively and a bit more ridging to the trough west. What you have shown here is a very powerful closed off bomb.  When it closes off it can be difficult to predict actually which way it goes as it's more independent.  As shown here there is a some room to come up a bit.

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Post by Irish Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I think DC to Philly is the bullseye for the Thursday storm, and some models last night came in even more south that would take Philly out of the big snows. Clearly not a good trend for our area. However, we have plenty of board members here from southern NJ and it’s definitely likely they’ll see something from this. We’ll still track it regardless Smile

I definitely live in the wrong place for snow. Most times the heavier stuff is N&W of me and most times my area ends up mixing. Then we get the rate occasion where it's cold enough for snow and the storm system stays too far south. Just can't win. Oh well, hope someone gets popped on Thursday.  Meanwhile, maybe it's time for me to move to the Caribbean, lol.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:09 am

@Irish wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I think DC to Philly is the bullseye for the Thursday storm, and some models last night came in even more south that would take Philly out of the big snows. Clearly not a good trend for our area. However, we have plenty of board members here from southern NJ and it’s definitely likely they’ll see something from this. We’ll still track it regardless Smile

I definitely live in the wrong place for snow. Most times the heavier stuff is N&W of me and most times my area ends up mixing. Then we get the rate occasion where it's cold enough for snow and the storm system stays too far south. Just can't win. Oh well, hope someone gets popped on Thursday.  Meanwhile, maybe it's time for me to move to the Caribbean, lol.

These past 2 winters have been tough.  There is no doubt about it.  This year stings more as the AO and NAO are favorable but lack of cold air has really hurt us.  Last year you just knew there was absolutely no chance so you didn't even have to bother tracking much.

But consider this DC has not had measurable snow in over 1 year!  I believe they are days away from breaking a record that has stood for 150 years.  So if they get hammered and Philly and NJ coast gets a taste then it's well deserved.  At least we had December 17.

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Post by larryrock72 Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:12 am

Irish, try living in southern ocean county, we really haven't seen anything in 2 years. Lol. It all depends how far north that low with be off Virginia Beach if it could be closer to ocean city Maryland most of this on the be board would be in the game. It's a big jump 125-140 miles north. I hope SENJ snowman is keeping a close eye on this.

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Post by Irish Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:45 am

Yeah DC and Southern Jersey has definitely been worse.  I guess, in my mind though, that's just expected being further south and closer to water.


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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:45 am

I’ve mentioned it before but this area is just such a tough area for snow because you have so many variables. We’re blessed to be in a spot where the potential for big snow is often there but cursed by how darn frustrating it can be to get it just right. You have to have just the right track, a perfectly placed/tilted trough, often deal with energy transfers (or fickle Miller B’s), proximity to the warmer ocean and upper level warm air intrusions, as heehaw often mentions we’re right on the fall line. So many factors.
Thursday has big potential it’s just a matter of who jackpots. I could see it trending further north because I think that trend is out there minus this mornings runs. I don’t think we can say anything with certainty on Thursday until the Tuesday system has fully played out and had its impact on the atmosphere.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:42 am

Larry, I tend to tense up at these times, and hit radio silence. I don’t want to jinx nothing or upset any karmic balance etc...But, I am cautiously optimistic at the moment. The next big moment for me will be how the models react when all the energy is onshore, which I think happens today-ish.

I totally believe in the concept of mean reversion, and I think we at the shore are way on the negative side of the mean for the past 2+ winters, albeit, that follows two Godzillas in a 2 month span in ‘18. Another thing is that every big storm Coastal Ocean gets comes with the same forecast of 1-3 inches from twc, and that’s what we have now, so...that’s a good sign, too! Usually, the forecast is either for mixing or to be out of zone for the heavy snow or both. For Thursday there is no call for mixing. And the models favor a coastal low popping. I’m worried that if that northern trend starts though, it won’t stop and we’ll get another warm side of a storm. Sounds crazy now, but for this winter once that train starts moving north, it’s hard to stop. As the Mon-Tue storm shows.

All I really want is to wake up Thurs am on the cold side of the low, that hasn’t happened around here in a while. And ultimately Irish is 100% correct, Bill too, the shore is a boom or bust snow town and the totality of the factors favor bust far more often than not.

Putting it altogether, only thing I can do is track. And keep my mouth shut... lol!

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:00 pm

I'm still liking the February 1st threat It's on all operational an ensemble guidance. We will have our coldest air of the season next weekend and then a storm system tries to cut and redevelops along the coast. One thing we are not lacking the next few weeks is systems to track hopefully a few of them will work out for us
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:32 pm

@algae888 wrote:I'm still liking the February 1st threat It's on all operational an ensemble guidance.  We will have our coldest air of the season next weekend and then a storm system tries to cut and redevelops along the coast. One thing we are not lacking the next few weeks is systems to track hopefully a few of them will work out for us

I really hope so algae that we can cash in on something. It'd be a pretty bad fail if we can't cash in on something with the favorable Atlantic and arctic and now some cold air in place. Not unprecedented to come out empty handed unfortunately.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:12 am

I know the 1/31 time period is showing something on the models. But at this point I'll wait another 3 days or so to really look at it.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:56 am

...and yet Accuweather has a snow accumulation map out today showing me with 3-6 inches for tomorrow. Go figure.

https://dailyvoice.com/new-york/ramapo/weather/here-are-latest-snowfall-projections-new-change-in-time-frame-for-storm-system/801999/?emh=e17f9d52b398447a91c751f64094075eb2cf9591&utm_source=breaking-email-weather-alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=breaking-ramapo-81677
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Post by Irish Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:35 am

Looks like things might try to warm up to near or over 50 by late next week.

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:39 am

The GFS twin which will become the new gf S on February 5th I believe Has snow Sunday evening through Tuesday evening next week. This set up continues to look good with a rising PNA 5050 low and a nao Rising towards neutral with a cold Arctic high over quebec. This is the best setup we've had all Winter except for the December 16th snowstorm.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:21 pm

NWS WPC

Hmm. Let's see what this looks like in 3 days.  I'm not falling for the banana in the tail pipe again...

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Post by Irish Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:04 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:NWS WPC

Hmm. Let's see what this looks like in 3 days.  I'm not falling for the banana in the tail pipe again...

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That's basically missing my area and will probably only tend north as we go anyhow.  See you in February...

ETA - Right after I type this I check TWC and they dropped the high temps for Sunday- Monday and are now calling for snow with 2-6 inches listed.

Interesting, yet again...


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Post by amugs Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:27 pm

Al my brother this ones for you. Popping the ridge out west good confluence to our. Sunday through Monday night. Another 6 day threat but some tning to track.

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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:07 pm

Lol @ "I'm not falling for the banana in the tailpipe again." Great movie reference.

But yes, this 1/31 to 2/1 system does seem to have a more favorable set-up and is beginning to generate some chatter. We'll see how it plays out as the week progresses because I Won't Get Fooled Again.
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Post by Irish Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:17 pm

@billg315 wrote:Lol @ "I'm not falling for the banana in the tailpipe again." Great movie reference.

But yes, this 1/31 to 2/1 system does seem to have a more favorable set-up and is beginning to generate some chatter. We'll see how it plays out as the week progresses because I Won't Get Fooled Again.

But do you prefer the banana in the tailpipe?

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