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December 2020 Observations and Discussion

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algae888
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:58 am

The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?

Not sure what you're looking at Jon but GFS, Euro and CMC have all shifted north with the track and precip shield over the last 2-3days significantly. Not enough to get me excited just yet but look for yourself.

CURRENT:

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14

00Z yesterday:

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:58 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?

Not sure what you're looking at Jon but GFS, Euro and CMC have all shifted north with the track and precip shield over the last 2-3days significantly.  Not enough to get me excited just yet but look for yourself.  

CURRENT:

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14

00Z yesterday:

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19
Thats Monday, I am taking about Wed/Thurs, thats what I thought mugs was talking about.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:59 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:The model runs i saw looked more offshore kerping rain well away and heaviest snow into central and even southern NJ NYC ate still sees 4 to 6. So mugs why say it's north?

Not sure what you're looking at Jon but GFS, Euro and CMC have all shifted north with the track and precip shield over the last 2-3days significantly.  Not enough to get me excited just yet but look for yourself.  

CURRENT:

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14

00Z yesterday:

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19
Thats Monday, I am taking about Wed/Thurs, thats what I thought mugs was talking about. Ohhh he was talk bout Monday, so potential double wammy nice, the Euro he posted whats the snow map look like just for fun?>
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:14 am

What a beaut

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_ms10
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:20 am

Monday on EPS says Northward boyz now mush!!!!!!!!!!!!
From Snowman on another board
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd36c1d1fcf4.png.3cfebd9373b88040133909c431ea934a

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd36c568a479.png.335ec9e8a01957dfaf3471ca24917ef4

GFS not budging - battle of the models coming into play we'll see

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:21 am

aiannone wrote:What a beaut

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_ms10
just a smidge more north plz but not too close or we get rain.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:22 am

Vector Victor!!

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Eo9ynqLXEAosII7?format=jpg&name=900x900

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:34 am

Canadian for 12/16.  LOL!

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Cmc13

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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:40 am

DAMN!
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gem_ms10
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:43 am

I will take my chances w.r.t precip types with a strong high pinned in Quebec. If A transfer of energy to the coast occurs sooner than later probably keeps mid levels < freezing for coastal plain. Can it cut west? I guess so especially if the ridge out west is flatter, but I'm more on board with white than wet on this threat. I just think there is enough synoptically to have interest piqued.


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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:45 am

Lets keep Monday maps and discussion in here for now and Wed/Thurs discussion in the LR thread to just keep things clean. At some point in the next day or so we can make the Mid week threat its own thread. Love the fact that we are tracking!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:55 am

Irish. I moved your comments to the LR thread.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:33 pm

Big shift North on new Euro nice little appetizer before the meal on Wednesday 3 to 6 in city north and west 12z Euro
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:45 pm

algae888 wrote:Big shift North on new Euro nice little appetizer before the meal on Wednesday 3 to 6 in city north and west 12z Euro

Thnak yo for backing me up with that - GFS not budging but we'll see come 18Z.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:46 pm

amugs wrote:
algae888 wrote:Big shift North on new Euro nice little appetizer before the meal on Wednesday 3 to 6 in city north and west 12z Euro

Thnak yo for backing me up with that - GFS not budging but we'll see come 18Z.

Looks like a little phasing with the northern stream this run. was worried it was going to mess up the wave on Wednesday but that did not happen with such a strong block
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:49 pm

Now that's a boom baby!!

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607979600-SEFOB7eX3vY

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 11, 2020 2:07 pm

EPS says hello again - BL temps are cut off by the Driscoll bridge on this run

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-RZoZMY5tsQU
925
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-9W3Nbe89Sc0
850's
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607968800-qQtpYwLdeUs
EPS


December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 5fd3c0ad5dcc6.png.451602633afde84637e7ba48be02c8db

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 11, 2020 2:51 pm

amugs wrote:Now that's a boom baby!!

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 1607979600-SEFOB7eX3vY
sweet!! The city better pave before Monday or we are in trouble they got raised and open manholes!!
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Post by Grselig Fri Dec 11, 2020 3:23 pm

Beautiful pictures. Is it okay to cry?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 11, 2020 3:51 pm

Grselig wrote:Beautiful pictures.  Is it okay to cry?
Not yet, don't jinx it lol, cry when you see it snowing like crazy : )
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:19 pm

Gorgeous day today! Ran up to Warwick Winery for a little outdoor therapy! Going to enjoy the warmer weather for the next few days, and wait til Sunday to see what we are in for for next week. No model hugging for me! lol

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Warwic10

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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022  17.6"  1" of sleet 2/25/22

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021        51.1"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:33 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Gorgeous day today! Ran up to Warwick Winery for a little outdoor therapy! Going to enjoy the warmer weather for the next few days, and wait til Sunday to see what we are in for for next week. No model hugging for me! lol

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Warwic10
smart move janet!! Yes it was a nice day. And will be anice weekend, we will know about monday for sure by Sunday, but even then you know nowcasting can be tense.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 11, 2020 9:31 pm

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Ecmwf-10

Mondays storm 18Z EURO.
Euro leading the way here peeps on both storms.

And its ticking colder.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 11, 2020 10:03 pm

NAM says yes EURO, did the upgrade in the spring bring back its KING CROWN?

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Nam.png.7727f746f8e7c06a77cc14a0ebfca3b0

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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