Re: December 2020 Observations and Discussion

by **amugs** Fri Dec 04, 2020 10:02 pm

HRRR saying some back end snow as dynamic cooling takes place over teh mountains in NNJ - Possibly but time will tell

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Eob2t6NWMAAHJnr?format=jpg&name=medium

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Eob2t6NWMAAHJnr?format=jpg&name=medium

by **heehaw453** Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:36 am

I'm at 41 with .47" inches on the gauge.

GFS and Euro trying to paint 12"+ of snow in Worcester MA with 925's around 32, 850's around 31 and surface not dropping below 35 F. Man I see the dynamics in play but it's going to have snow > 3" per hour for many hours to obtain that kind of accumulation. I'd take the under on those accumulations in SNE less the very highest elevations above 1500' feet. Of course higher elevations of ME and NH will cash in and I believe the accumulations there.

I think BOX may get skunked < 2" on this one in terms of accumulations. There's only so hard it can snow to offset the airmass.

BTW, you'd need a yard stick to measure the snow if there was a cold air mass up there.

I just don't think so...

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Snow10

by **Taffy** Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:56 am

I am driving back up to MA today and from the look of things, I should leave early. I hate asking because I know the IMBY rules but (there always is one) where is the rain/snow line approximately?

by **frank 638** Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:58 am

44° a cold depressing heavy rain this sucks

by **billg315** Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:45 am

43* with the rain slowly winding down here. Had about 1.5" overnight so will end up in that ballpark as the heavy stuff is done. Doesn't look like I'll even see flakes before it ends (unless there are a few scattered back end flurries on those strong winds tonight). In short, was just a raw, rainy December night.

by **billg315** Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:49 am

Taffy wrote:I am driving back up to MA today and from the look of things, I should leave early. I hate asking because I know the IMBY rules but (there always is one) where is the rain/snow line approximately?

Presently it is still predominantly rain in most places. Starting to see a little changeover to snow on the very back end near Albany, northwestern CT and western Mass. Also looks like an area of snow in central Mass (not familiar with the area, maybe because of elevation or maybe because the precip is so heavy its dragging the cold air down?).

by **heehaw453** Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:50 am

.65" IMBY and I don't expect too much more. Not too much wind to speak of and pretty unremarkable all in all. I'm just glad it was not 2"+ of cold wind driven rain as it could have been with earlier development.

by **aiannone** Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:14 pm

1.19” here on the north shore of LI. Temp down to 39.8*. Want some flakes!

by **amugs** Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:04 pm

Hee Haw with the low bombing as it is it will be bringing 2-4" hr snowfall rates to NE. Once the cold air gets entrenched into the system watch out game on.

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by **hyde345** Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:09 pm

39 with light rain in Hyde park

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:10 pm

Very raw day. I’m thinking rain shuts off in NJ around 1:30p but will take majority of the day over Long Island.

Sunshine tomorrow temps in the 40s. Lows in the 20s..coldest nights of the season coming up

by **aiannone** Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:22 pm

Watching this reflectivity. Temp down to 37. Dew point 32

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by **sroc4** Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Very raw day. I’m thinking rain shuts off in NJ around 1:30p but will take majority of the day over Long Island.

Sunshine tomorrow temps in the 40s. Lows in the 20s..coldest nights of the season coming up

If there were any cold air at all this would have been Nemo part II for me. Everything is in such good position. Simply no cold air.

by **heehaw453** Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:55 pm

amugs wrote:Hee Haw with the low bombing as it is it will be bringing 2-4" hr snowfall rates to NE. Once the cold air gets entrenched into the system watch out game on.

Absolutely it's going to snow heavily in SNE. I'd say cut the totals NWS is projecting in half from Worcester MA south. Once you get into NH and ME that is another story and they will get 12"+. The ratios are really bad in SNE and will be for most of the storm, moreover the ground is warm. That's an ugly combo to overcome for prodigious snowfall amounts.

But I'll be watching to see how it goes up there...

by **amugs** Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:05 pm

Lets see where this goes from here but this is a okay look overall - heights over Greenland are signaling a Negative NAO block and AO
From wx bell
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_8249600_1(1)

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf_ensemble_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_8249600_1(1)

by **heehaw453** Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:57 am

BOS received .3" of snowfall yesterday and 1.72" of rain. Only the elevations above 900' received over 8" of snow. Give me a cold air mass to work with and I'll take my chances with the storm, even a marginal airmass can be overcome with dynamics.

Yesterday's air mass was absolutely untenable for deep depth and widespread snows. The storm yesterday would have been much more convective (thundersnow) in nature and dumped feet of snow with a cold antecedent air mass. Even if it had cold air to tap into it would have been another animal entirely.

We won't do too much better w.r.t. to track of a storm and I have no idea if we get another shot like this the rest of the winter. All I know is last year IMBY I had a window in beginning of December and missed it and rest of the winter 3" was my max accumulation.

b.t.w. models did an excellent job of picking up where the max accumulations were going to be. Also nailed the track inside of 48 hours. I don't really pay attention to their snow outputs in situations like this because of snow ratios and a warm surface.

by **hyde345** Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:14 pm

heehaw453 wrote:BOS received .3" of snowfall yesterday and 1.72" of rain. Only the elevations above 900' received over 8" of snow. Give me a cold air mass to work with and I'll take my chances with the storm, even a marginal airmass can be overcome with dynamics.

Yesterday's air mass was absolutely untenable for deep depth and widespread snows. The storm yesterday would have been much more convective (thundersnow) in nature and dumped feet of snow with a cold antecedent air mass. Even if it had cold air to tap into it would have been another animal entirely.

We won't do too much better w.r.t. to track of a storm and I have no idea if we get another shot like this the rest of the winter. All I know is last year IMBY I had a window in beginning of December and missed it and rest of the winter 3" was my max accumulation.

b.t.w. models did an excellent job of picking up where the max accumulations were going to be. Also nailed the track inside of 48 hours. I don't really pay attention to their snow outputs in situations like this because of snow ratios and a warm surface.

This was never our storm and the next 10-14 days don't look that great either. Last year IMBY we had nearly a foot OTG and then the rest of the winter sucked. It's still early but I'm concerned that this winter will again be warmer than normal with below normal snowfall.

by **heehaw453** Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:47 pm

12Z NAM and Euro show some light snow on Wednesday. Coating to at most .5" kind of deal, but surface temperatures look decent (around freezing).

Hopefully can whiten someone's lawn.

by **frank 638** Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:43 am

30° seen a couple snowflake

Going on At least it’s putting us into a Christmas

Mood

by **aiannone** Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:16 am

Nice morning flurries here on LI. Temp 29

by **billg315** Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:30 am

Definitely a look and feel of snow this morning: Cloudy, gray and cold. But it looks like most of the flurry activity is centered east of here over NYC/LI area. Nice mood flakes for you guys to the east. Let's see if we can get some more widespread flurries/snow showers tomorrow AM

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 08, 2020 11:04 am

Def a few mood flakes this am while standing at the bus stop with the kids. It had that smell in the air. I love that smell.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:48 pm

Flurries this morning at 29* at witnessed by my son friend who lives down the block from us!!

by **aiannone** Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:17 pm

NAM says some light snow tmw

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 Namcon11

by **essexcountypete** Tue Dec 08, 2020 4:55 pm

sroc4 wrote:Def a few mood flakes this am while standing at the bus stop with the kids. It had that smell in the air. I love that smell.

I love that smell too. When I saw the flakes this morning I went straight for the back door to look and take in a deep breath of that wonderful smell. It's totally transformative.

by **billg315** Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:03 pm

Definitely looks like some snow showers could move through from late morning to mid-afternoon tomorrow. Could even coat the ground in some spots, at least on colder surfaces.

by **amugs** Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:42 pm

NAM has good surface temps for teh snow showers to stick in teh NW NJ regions and colder surfaces in NNJ adn LHV
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1607536800-KKGHyG2hlvo

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1607536800-KKGHyG2hlvo

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1607547600-GNSIQfZ0ffE

GFS says hello snow showers

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EURO

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 4 1607547600-UOzRcbjpI7s