DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
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SNOW MAN
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
The Mt. Holly discussion completely disregards the Euro and CMC whichbodes well for central and southern NJ but NYC and north would not get a super big hit, and any more trend south we may be out of it completely, is that possible. It is disconcerting for us in Northern Jersey to NYC and N and West they are only buying the GFS.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Yeah, sorry rb but I have to side with Frank, call me partial but I want a snowstorm, another rainstorm wouldn't be a surprise in 2020 though, not trying to be negative, just saying it as a possibility. My hopes are still up for now, if Frank you start to back down then I will give in lolFrank_Wx wrote:dsix85 wrote:Frank- is this a long duration event?
Models always try to show a long duration event, then as it gets closer, they realize the blocking is not as prominent and speed everything up. I don’t believe this will be long. Under 24 hours. Maybe under 20 hours.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Here is Upton, they do mention potential northern jog and rain/snow for the coast.
A srn stream low pressure system moving across the lower
Mississippi Valley Tue night will weaken W of the Appalachians
on Wed while a secondary low takes shape near Hatteras. This
system will have plenty of Gulf and eventually Atlantic moisture
to work with, as well as a continued supply of low level cold
air from the strong high to the northeast, so as this system
approaches, expect snow to develop Wed afternoon, and then
become moderate to heavy at times Wed night as the low wraps up
just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Forecast mentions almost all
snow at this point with a good chance of significant
accumulation, with the caveat that the high to the NE may be
modeled too strong, and if it does retreat more quickly that
could allow for a more N/W low track, as well as potential for
mixed precip for the NYC metro area and Long Island as marine
air and possibly warmer air aloft get involved.
A srn stream low pressure system moving across the lower
Mississippi Valley Tue night will weaken W of the Appalachians
on Wed while a secondary low takes shape near Hatteras. This
system will have plenty of Gulf and eventually Atlantic moisture
to work with, as well as a continued supply of low level cold
air from the strong high to the northeast, so as this system
approaches, expect snow to develop Wed afternoon, and then
become moderate to heavy at times Wed night as the low wraps up
just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Forecast mentions almost all
snow at this point with a good chance of significant
accumulation, with the caveat that the high to the NE may be
modeled too strong, and if it does retreat more quickly that
could allow for a more N/W low track, as well as potential for
mixed precip for the NYC metro area and Long Island as marine
air and possibly warmer air aloft get involved.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
SCI at 100% for the mid week storm
If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again
If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
JMAN, I'm seeing the two forecasts as largely consistent. If its tucked, we're both in trouble, but you have a better chance of a back end snow than I do cuz your N. If it's suppressed, it favors me I suppose, cuz I'm S and jutting out into the Atlantic. If it's BM, we both cash in and then N and W regions have to hope for a deepening storm/expanded shield. I think...
Just wait until the windshield wipers start to kick in!! lol
Just wait until the windshield wipers start to kick in!! lol
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
I know, I am going to try my best to not post if the wiper blades hit me in the head lolSENJsnowman wrote:JMAN, I'm seeing the two forecasts as largely consistent. If its tucked, we're both in trouble, but you have a better chance of a back end snow than I do cuz your N. If it's suppressed, it favors me I suppose, cuz I'm S and jutting out into the Atlantic. If it's BM, we both cash in and then N and W regions have to hope for a deepening storm/expanded shield. I think...
Just wait until the windshield wipers start to kick in!! lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Man 1 inch, you best never post again if we don't get at least 3+ lolFrank_Wx wrote:SCI at 100% for the mid week storm
If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Frank_Wx wrote:SCI at 100% for the mid week storm
If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again
I'll keep this in mind.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Frank_Wx wrote:SCI at 100% for the mid week storm
If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again
Very safe bet Frank.
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
I just got a FB memory this time 7 years ago we were tracking a big storm, I wasn't a part of the board back then I do not think, maybe I was but just thought that was interesting. Anyone remember if that panned out?
Edit: Holy smokes I been here 8 years!!
Edit: Holy smokes I been here 8 years!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.
I agree the models are too high with their totals, I am thinking more along the lines of 6-8 or maybe 10
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.
So throw out the maps because we'd be getting more or less than the maps are predicting?
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
phil155 wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.
I agree the models are too high with their totals, I am thinking more along the lines of 6-8 or maybe 10
Many times the models are blown up. Reality always kicks in.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Like the GFS euro is slightly less amped as it approaches. Aka heights lower out ahead.
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Good point, did not even thing about how wet this snow will probably be. I hope its not too wet otherwise we gotta worry about trees breaking from the weight.phil155 wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.
I agree the models are too high with their totals, I am thinking more along the lines of 6-8 or maybe 10
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
sroc4 wrote:Like the GFS euro is slightly less amped as it approaches. Aka heights lower out ahead.
Euro going to crush us
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
I think a good portion of the board has really good ratio snows.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
algae888 wrote:sroc4 wrote:Like the GFS euro is slightly less amped as it approaches. Aka heights lower out ahead.
Euro going to crush us
It sure is Al
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
1 to 2 ft area wide on the euro still not done yet
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
jmanley32 wrote:I just got a FB memory this time 7 years ago we were tracking a big storm, I wasn't a part of the board back then I do not think, maybe I was but just thought that was interesting. Anyone remember if that panned out?
Edit: Holy smokes I been here 8 years!!
Ive been lurking this group since this board started , going back to the accuweather chat board when I think it was Bill Evens ( correct me ) got pissed at frank for actually nailing storm after storm !
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nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
That euro run was crazy. Wow
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Madonne X 2
Wish I could do a deeper analysis but heading over to nonnas for dinner
Wish I could do a deeper analysis but heading over to nonnas for dinner
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
fRANK If I see 20.1 inches of snow on Wed which is right over me on that map I will not complain the rest of the winter, thats nearly our yearly average on one day!! You may have to put back the roidzilla potential if the Euro holds, if the GFS trends that way it would be even better!! Cannot wait to see the SR models in a day or 2.Frank_Wx wrote:That euro run was crazy. Wow
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???
Don't forget the snow Maps are 10 to 1 ratios there's going to be higher ratios with the CCB bands
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