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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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SNOW MAN
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:56 am

The Mt. Holly discussion completely disregards the Euro and CMC whichbodes well for central and southern NJ but NYC and north would not get a super big hit, and any more trend south we may be out of it completely, is that possible. It is disconcerting for us in Northern Jersey to NYC and N and West they are only buying the GFS.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Frank- is this a long duration event?

Models always try to show a long duration event, then as it gets closer, they realize the blocking is not as prominent and speed everything up. I don’t believe this will be long. Under 24 hours. Maybe under 20 hours.
Yeah, sorry rb but I have to side with Frank, call me partial but I want a snowstorm, another rainstorm wouldn't be a surprise in 2020 though, not trying to be negative, just saying it as a possibility. My hopes are still up for now, if Frank you start to back down then I will give in lol

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:05 pm

Here is Upton, they do mention potential northern jog and rain/snow for the coast.

A srn stream low pressure system moving across the lower
Mississippi Valley Tue night will weaken W of the Appalachians
on Wed while a secondary low takes shape near Hatteras. This
system will have plenty of Gulf and eventually Atlantic moisture
to work with, as well as a continued supply of low level cold
air from the strong high to the northeast, so as this system
approaches, expect snow to develop Wed afternoon, and then
become moderate to heavy at times Wed night as the low wraps up
just off the Mid Atlantic coast. Forecast mentions almost all
snow at this point with a good chance of significant
accumulation, with the caveat that the high to the NE may be
modeled too strong, and if it does retreat more quickly that
could allow for a more N/W low track, as well as potential for
mixed precip for the NYC metro area and Long Island as marine
air and possibly warmer air aloft get involved.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:16 pm

SCI at 100% for the mid week storm

If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:17 pm

JMAN, I'm seeing the two forecasts as largely consistent. If its tucked, we're both in trouble, but you have a better chance of a back end snow than I do cuz your N. If it's suppressed, it favors me I suppose, cuz I'm S and jutting out into the Atlantic. If it's BM, we both cash in and then N and W regions have to hope for a deepening storm/expanded shield. I think...

Just wait until the windshield wipers start to kick in!!  lol

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:29 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:JMAN, I'm seeing the two forecasts as largely consistent. If its tucked, we're both in trouble, but you have a better chance of a back end snow than I do cuz your N. If it's suppressed, it favors me I suppose, cuz I'm S and jutting out into the Atlantic. If it's BM, we both cash in and then N and W regions have to hope for a deepening storm/expanded shield. I think...

Just wait until the windshield wipers start to kick in!!  lol
I know, I am going to try my best to not post if the wiper blades hit me in the head lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:SCI at 100% for the mid week storm

If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again
Man 1 inch, you best never post again if we don't get at least 3+ lol
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:34 pm

That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:SCI at 100% for the mid week storm

If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again

I'll keep this in mind.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:SCI at 100% for the mid week storm

If NYC doesn’t see at least one inch I’ll never post again

Very safe bet Frank.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:59 pm

I just got a FB memory this time 7 years ago we were tracking a big storm, I wasn't a part of the board back then I do not think, maybe I was but just thought that was interesting.  Anyone remember if that panned out?

Edit: Holy smokes I been here 8 years!!
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Post by phil155 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:07 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.

I agree the models are too high with their totals, I am thinking more along the lines of 6-8 or maybe 10

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Post by Irish Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:08 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.

So throw out the maps because we'd be getting more or less than the maps are predicting?
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Post by Irish Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:09 pm

phil155 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.

I agree the models are too high with their totals, I am thinking more along the lines of 6-8 or maybe 10

Many times the models are blown up. Reality always kicks in.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:13 pm

Like the GFS euro is slightly less amped as it approaches. Aka heights lower out ahead.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:13 pm

phil155 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:That HP is progged to be quite strong, may see some suppression to the south a tad. Ratios for most of the area will probably be about 8:1, so throw out those model snow maps.

I agree the models are too high with their totals, I am thinking more along the lines of 6-8 or maybe 10
Good point, did not even thing about how wet this snow will probably be. I hope its not too wet otherwise we gotta worry about trees breaking from the weight.
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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:16 pm

sroc4 wrote:Like the GFS euro is slightly less amped as it approaches. Aka heights lower out ahead.

Euro going to crush us
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:17 pm

I think a good portion of the board has really good ratio snows.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:17 pm

algae888 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Like the GFS euro is slightly less amped as it approaches. Aka heights lower out ahead.

Euro going to crush us

It sure is Al

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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:18 pm

1 to 2 ft area wide on the euro still not done yet
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Post by Nyi1058 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I just got a FB memory this time 7 years ago we were tracking a big storm, I wasn't a part of the board back then I do not think, maybe I was but just thought that was interesting.  Anyone remember if that panned out?

Edit: Holy smokes I been here 8 years!!

Ive been lurking this group since this board started , going back to the accuweather chat board when I think it was Bill Evens ( correct me ) got pissed at frank for actually nailing storm after storm !

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:26 pm

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 8 Sn10_a15
Absolute crush job by the Euro
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:27 pm

That euro run was crazy. Wow shocked

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:27 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 8 Sn10_a15
Absolute crush job by the Euro
Gonna say if for yall MADONNE!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:29 pm

Madonne X 2

Wish I could do a deeper analysis but heading over to nonnas for dinner

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:That euro run was crazy. Wow shocked
fRANK If I see 20.1 inches of snow on Wed which is right over me on that map I will not complain the rest of the winter, thats nearly our yearly average on one day!! You may have to put back the roidzilla potential if the Euro holds, if the GFS trends that way it would be even better!! Cannot wait to see the SR models in a day or 2.
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Post by algae888 Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:32 pm

Don't forget the snow Maps are 10 to 1 ratios there's going to be higher ratios with the CCB bands
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