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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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SNOW MAN
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Post by Irish Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:28 pm

snowday111 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
Irish wrote:
phil155 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking Smile

Edison

I've worked in Edison for the last 20 years.

Very cool, it is a nice town

So have I, but I've got an extra 10 years on Irish! Do you think they'll call an old fashioned snow day?

Are you in the teaching field? They'll have to call a snow day because of the special programs that might still be in and certainly for the central office staff. Hell, they're still email us the covid checklist for reporting in to school in Sunday nights, even though the majority of the district is full remote. So, if they call a snow day, do we get off or do they just say full remote?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:28 pm

phil155 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking Smile

Edison

Tx..I live in hazlet..you ARE more north..lol..not as close to the coast..tx Smile

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Post by snowday111 Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:34 pm

Irish wrote:
snowday111 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
Irish wrote:
phil155 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking Smile

Edison

I've worked in Edison for the last 20 years.

Very cool, it is a nice town

So have I, but I've got an extra 10 years on Irish! Do you think they'll call an old fashioned snow day?

Are you in the teaching field?  They'll have to call a snow day because of the special programs that might still be in and certainly for the central office staff. Hell, they're still email us the covid checklist for reporting in to school in Sunday nights, even though the majority of the district is full remote. So, if they call a snow day, do we get off or do they just say full remote?

Yes, with you!!! I was teasing about the snowday. Since we are actually all remote at the moment they have no reason to call the day. Just teach from home like we are currently doing. When we go back to hybrid, that's another story.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:38 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:UUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

EUROOOOOOOOOOO

Bob. 18z Euro, if it went out just a little further,would have the vast majority of this board in roidzilla to Frankzilla territory   Incredible

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:39 pm

amugs wrote:NWS for Philly:



...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and northern Delaware along and near the I-95 corridor.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is anticipated to move into the region Wednesday morning and some areas in the watch may mix with sleet and rain. We anticipate there will likely be a sharp gradient in snow totals depending on precipitation type. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

I cannot recall the NWS issuing WS Watch 3 days in advance. Normally it's about 36 hours and I've seen 48 hours at most. Amazing...

https://www.weather.gov/media/meg/WinterStormCriteriaMEG.pdf

Criteria for Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories
Winter Storm Watch:
Winter Storm Watches are issued when conditions are favorable for hazardous winter weather
conditions to develop over part or all of the County Warning Forecast Area. A watch is issued to
give an advanced notice of the potential occurrence of a winter storm. Winter Storm Watches are
issued for events in the 24 to 36 hour period from the start of the storm. Occasionally, a watch
may be issued for time frames beyond 48 hours before the storms starts.


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Post by Irish Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:39 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:UUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

EUROOOOOOOOOOO

Just not valuable without pics! Lol
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Post by Irish Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:41 pm

snowday111 wrote:
Irish wrote:
snowday111 wrote:
phil155 wrote:
Irish wrote:
phil155 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
phil155 wrote:I'm still thinking 6-8 with the possibility of 10 or so here in northern central nj. I just think to see the huge amounts too many things need to be just right

Hey can I ask where you are in Central Jersey if you don't mind me asking Smile

Edison

I've worked in Edison for the last 20 years.

Very cool, it is a nice town

So have I, but I've got an extra 10 years on Irish! Do you think they'll call an old fashioned snow day?

Are you in the teaching field?  They'll have to call a snow day because of the special programs that might still be in and certainly for the central office staff. Hell, they're still email us the covid checklist for reporting in to school in Sunday nights, even though the majority of the district is full remote. So, if they call a snow day, do we get off or do they just say full remote?

Yes, with you!!! I was teasing about the snowday. Since we are actually all remote at the moment they have no reason to call the day. Just teach from home like we are currently doing. When we go back to hybrid, that's another story.

Oooo, do I know you? School? And I was hopeful, that if they called a snow day for the in person employees, which they would have to, or even a state of emergency, that we would get a legit day off. Thoughts?
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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:46 pm

My thought is please continue the convo in banter. Smile

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:47 pm

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:55 pm

Yeah, that 18z Euro run is gangbusters. MOG
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:57 pm

OMG EURO JUST NUKED US WITH A MONSTER!!

GUSTS
Nice Baroclinic tight gradient gonna make them howl!
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 1608188400-ncDuS1Rxd8I




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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:00 pm

Textbook monster storm set up
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 20201213_194759.jpg.0a2439df1548b21deb05892c46fd7f9f

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Post by MattyICE Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:04 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro

And. Still. Not. Finished...

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Post by frank 638 Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:06 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro
I wonder if the light blue and dark blue will expand east

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:10 pm

MattyICE wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro

And. Still. Not. Finished...
Euro doesnt go fully out past 90 hrs at 18z? I havent had a Euro subscription since they added a 18z. Wow, that 24+ area is insane, please bring that a little south, meet between the euro and GFS lol Ill still take my 12+ it shows, 30 inches is almost too much for me honestly, street parking would be nonexistant. But I would still love to see it. And the wind map wow.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:11 pm

frank 638 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro
I wonder if the light blue and dark blue will expand east
Thats what I was wondering, if its not done don't post the snow map, btw this is 7am Thurs and its still snowing?!!
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:11 pm

frank 638 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro
I wonder if the light blue and dark blue will expand east

Have to think it is over amped. At least until I see it in several runs and/or other models showing it.

Still. It's a thing of beauty to behold regardless.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro
I wonder if the light blue and dark blue will expand east
Thats what I was wondering, if its not done don't post the snow map, btw this is 7am Thurs and its still snowing?!!

Yes, It's still snowing probably for another few hours. This was a massive run.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:20 pm

hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro
I wonder if the light blue and dark blue will expand east
Thats what I was wondering, if its not done don't post the snow map, btw this is 7am Thurs and its still snowing?!!

Yes, It's still snowing probably for another few hours. This was a massive run.
so how much would you add to NYC area u think, not that 12-20 is anything to scoff at, just interesting placement of the highest. I would have to see the model run to understand that.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:45 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 Euro
I wonder if the light blue and dark blue will expand east
Thats what I was wondering, if its not done don't post the snow map, btw this is 7am Thurs and its still snowing?!!

Yes, It's still snowing probably for another few hours. This was a massive run.
so how much would you add to NYC area u think, not that 12-20 is anything to scoff at, just interesting placement of the highest. I would have to see the model run to understand that.

Hard to say. According to Euro it's snowing steadily until noon or so on Thursday. I do think those numbers are somewhat overdone though. I would expect a wide area of 12-18.
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Post by billg315 Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:55 pm

With each passing model run we continue to close in on something special with this one. This is the type of storm setup I dream of if it holds. But, I'm in that moment now where I feel like Charlie Brown running toward the football. The question is, who is holding the ball, Lucy or someone I can trust? (like Linus. Wouldn't you think Chuck would have had Linus hold the ball for him? I mean the kid is as loyal a friend as you could have. Gullible in the Great Pumpkin debacle, but loyal.) Anyway, fingers crossed.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Frank- is this a long duration event?

Models always try to show a long duration event, then as it gets closer, they realize the blocking is not as prominent and speed everything up. I don’t believe this will be long. Under 24 hours. Maybe under 20 hours.

So then are you saying that the current modeling is overplaying the block’s hand, and is therefore, too cold/suppressed? told ya

Depends on the model! GFS looks too suppressed. EURO/CMC are closer to what I believe will happen, which does leave room for a more WNW/warmer track Wink

But I remain hesitant it gets too far N&W. Though, let's be honest, you're in the jackpot!




I’m only being a smart Alec here, Frank haha I know what you meant. And check my location......I moved Brick

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Frank- is this a long duration event?

Models always try to show a long duration event, then as it gets closer, they realize the blocking is not as prominent and speed everything up. I don’t believe this will be long. Under 24 hours. Maybe under 20 hours.

So then are you saying that the current modeling is overplaying the block’s hand, and is therefore, too cold/suppressed? told ya

Depends on the model! GFS looks too suppressed. EURO/CMC are closer to what I believe will happen, which does leave room for a more WNW/warmer track Wink

But I remain hesitant it gets too far N&W. Though, let's be honest, you're in the jackpot!


I’m only being a smart Alec here, Frank haha I know what you meant. And check my location......I moved Brick

Holy crap, you now live in LBI??

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:29 pm

Getting caught up - but madonne what an 18z euro run

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 11 4-DDAF0-BB-0-EF1-4-EC7-BCA3-C42697598553-thumb-jpeg-1095d4541ec61f97c6a5e1d2b406d245

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Post by billg315 Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:31 pm

Ahh no wonder rb is so sour on this storm: everyone getting a foot of snow while it rains on LBI! (Just kidding rb! Lol)
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:45 pm


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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:48 pm

ALREADY winter storm watches issues by Mt Holly


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