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DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:59 pm

GFS. Oyy
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 8445fe10
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:59 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:00z GFS is still way south and east. Man oh man this model is either going to lose all credibility or score a big win.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 Image-thumb-png-0aa1717a45916958a3f4df7b2beabcec

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Couldn’t have painted it better myself Very Happy

RGEM

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 2be65410
How is it this snow map is 10-15 inches less than the one posted above?

You posted the Kuch.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:01 pm

Yeah GFS isn't looking good, still way east even moreso than 18z. As frank said either its out to lunch or going to be king GFS. I for now am going to side with the majority on this one.
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:01 pm

Para GFS
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 4dd96210
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 A4ec0c10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:02 pm

@aiannone wrote:GFS. Oyy
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Oy a large portion of us will jump ship lol wow holy crap!!
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:03 pm

Jet streak stronger over head so why did it not come further N?
See what the rest of the suite has.


Last edited by amugs on Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:04 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:03 pm

Annnnd 00z CMC saves the night

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 I-nw-EST-2020121400-074-thumb-png-a61d8304e60f95ca1a83193abbdec53a

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:05 pm

@aiannone wrote:Para GFS
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 4dd96210
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 A4ec0c10
Rain, yeah I do not believe that at all sorry.
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:05 pm

See what the GEFS have to say.
GFS looks to be about 75-100 miles to far south with that jet streak strength and position.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:09 pm

@aiannone wrote:GFS. Oyy
DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 13 8445fe10

If somehow this verified, I will cry long and hard, and swear off weather watching for whatever time I have left on this rock.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:11 pm

Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?

You're going crazy...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:14 pm

I always get this mixed up, but when the time changes and I'm looking at a 9Z map on the 17th is that at 4AM our time or 5AM?

Any of the more knowledgeable please let me know.

Thanks in advance.
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Post by Irish Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:14 pm

https://nj1015.com/storm-2-update-midweek-noreaster-looks-like-major-storm-for-nj/

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Post by jimv45 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:16 pm

So let's see where I am I can see nothing to about 20 inches, that's 2020 I expect the nothing with the GFS.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:17 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I always get this mixed up, but when the time changes and I'm looking at a 9Z map on the 17th is that at 4AM our time or 5AM?

Any of the more knowledgeable please let me know.

Thanks in advance.

4am

https://www.scc-ares-races.org/generalinfo/utcchart.html

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:18 pm

At least my atmospheric “horse” is still in the race: I have three models so far tonight that are with me in bringing the snow axis generally along the I-81 Corridor, and along and north of the I-84 Corridor, the NAM, ICON, and GFS Para. Granted, they are not the top choices, BUT, I still believe that they are representing the overall picture the best. Why? Well, in my opinion, they are matching the upper level evolutions the best. It’s tough to do from mobile, but I absolutely CANNOT understand why the GFS is doing what it is.

The biggest red flag to me that we have to watch for a warmer result (watch the sneaky mid-level warmth!!!) is we continue to notice increasing heights and thicknesses out ahead of the storm. Granted, they’re not massive run to run changes, but they are there, and I think they continue for reasons already provided, and still like the idea of a further west evolution. There has been a strong western envelop of solutions across all three major ensembles, which gives me some additional hope. That said, the clock is ticking, but I am fully discounting the GFS and its ensembles for now, as they will follow the Op.

OH DANG FOLKS WE’RE IN STORM MODE.......STUFF JUST GOT REAL!!!!!


Last edited by rb924119 on Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:20 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?

You're going crazy...
I wish I could show you a screen shot its so bizarre, its all red and I can't read anything in the borders! I swear!
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:22 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?

You're going crazy...
I wish I could show you a screen shot its so bizarre, its all red and I can't read anything in the borders! I swear!

You’re not alone, I have it too on mobile. It’s because our fearless leader upped the ante and put us in Storm Mode.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:22 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?

You're going crazy...
I wish I could show you a screen shot its so bizarre, its all red and I can't read anything in the borders! I swear!

Haha, kidding I am playing around with settings to represent storm mode. What cant u read?

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Post by jimv45 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:22 pm

Yep me to jman strange color change.

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:23 pm

Jman your not crazy ! I'm seeing the same thing you and Irish are. Pinkish red.
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:25 pm

It's really hard to read anything at the top and bottom.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?

You're going crazy...
I wish I could show you a screen shot its so bizarre, its all red and I can't read anything in the borders! I swear!

Haha, kidding I am playing around with settings to represent storm mode. What cant u read?
The top bars the solid areas that are usually blue, you cannot see the pages to click. Alot of stuff.
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