DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

It's really hard to read anything at the top and bottom.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?

You're going crazy...

I wish I could show you a screen shot its so bizarre, its all red and I can't read anything in the borders! I swear!

Haha, kidding I am playing around with settings to represent storm mode. What cant u read?

The top bars the solid areas that are usually blue, you cannot see the pages to click. Alot of stuff.

SNOW MAN wrote:It's really hard to read anything at the top and bottom.

Good to see you back buddy.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SNOW MAN wrote:It's really hard to read anything at the top and bottom.

Good to see you back buddy.

Thanks Cp. I know it's been a while.

GFS would be a disaster for many due to that sharp cutoff to the north, but would also still be a major hit for some people on here. For the sake of the sanity and mental well-being of the board as a whole however I hope it’s off-base.

It almost looks to me like the models are suffering from convective feedback issues, which is dragging both the surface representation and modeled precipitation shield too far east (and therefore, thermal profiles). I’ve noticed what appears to be erroneous vorticity in the same region as our progged surface low, and it doesn’t match the rest of the mid- and upper-level forcings. It could also be me just being biased to my ideas at this point, but honestly, it doesn’t make sense.

It seems that if all models were averaged right now, the I95 corridor/ cities are getting slammed either way.

Some of these maps are getting a little nutty, but I wouldn't complain if this somehow came close to verifying.



It would certainly be a nice welcome back for SNOWMAN.

rb924119 wrote:It almost looks to me like the models are suffering from convective feedback issues, which is dragging both the surface representation and modeled precipitation shield too far east (and therefore, thermal profiles). I’ve noticed what appears to be erroneous vorticity in the same region as our progged surface low, and it doesn’t match the rest of the mid- and upper-level forcings. It could also be me just being biased to my ideas at this point, but honestly, it doesn’t make sense.

I guess i am learning cuz I was going to say this earlier but was affraid to be wrong, but you beat me too it. It does look like convective feedback on GFS, its chasing to the east. IMO GFS is out to lunch.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Some of these maps are getting a little nutty, but I wouldn't complain if this somehow came close to verifying.



It would certainly be a nice welcome back for SNOWMAN.

Cp, In a way I'm excited for this storm. But in another way I'm not sure I'm up to it yet. I had major spine surgery a few months ago and I don't know if I can handle moving that much snow yet. But I'm sure I'll figure something out. Woooo Hoooo !

jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?

I'm all pink too

I’ll add the UKMET to my list, and the SREFs, but the SREFs are ehhh, I’ve been burned by them before (pun intended lol). Really curious now to see the EURO.

And on that note, I can go to bed & rest assured...

00z EURO

And the EURO breaks west. I’ll check back in the morning. Good night all.

SoulSingMG wrote:And on that note, I can go to bed & rest assured...

00z EURO

The GFS is out on its own, I think we are in for one heck of a storm, night all!

And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

Don't know what you're looking at it's still a widespread 8 to 16 in from Central New Jersey North if people are looking for two feet of snow they're going to be disappointed be happy with a foot the Nam does dry slot us though and it is the farthest north model but it's definitely not in its range yet

6z GFS holds with its idea of suppression and a sharp cutoff to the north. We go from over a foot in Central NJ to about 10” in immediate NYC to about 2 or 3” in northern Orange
County, and not much more than an inch north of there.
We are confronted with the problem we often are though: A shift to the north saves our northern board members putting them in the 10” plus zone, however it likely leads to mixing with rain and lower totals back to I-95 putting some our southern and eastern members in the screw zone.
The Euro seems to want to keep everyone happy. But . . . How often does that happen with these storms? We shall see.

Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

Dynamically, and situationally, this actually seems much more believable in my opinion, but we’ll see.

6z GFS came north with the heaviest snows but is still a southern outlier.

rb924119 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

Dynamically, and situationally, this actually seems much more believable in my opinion, but we’ll see.

It's still 8 to 16 in across the whole tri-state area is that your forecast

Actually the 6z NAM is as big as disaster for some of us to the south and East as the GFS is to the folks to the north. In my neck of the woods it would give me just a couple inches. Same for some spots on LI and the northern Jersey coast.

algae888 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

Dynamically, and situationally, this actually seems much more believable in my opinion, but we’ll see.

It's still 8 to 16 in across the whole tri-state area is that your forecast

I haven’t put out numbers for this because I didn’t have the time, and knew I wouldn’t have the time to devote to sitting down and actually making a map, and I didn’t want to put something together that was half-arse’d lol that said, I specified the axis of snowfall that was expecting to verify since last week, which was, and remains, the I-81 and along/north of the I-84 corridor for best snow. That said, when I do make snowfall forecasts, I NEVER look at snow maps from modeling because it really tells you nothing. They’re pretty to look at, and can give you a broad-nrushed idea, but for pinpointing, they’re essentiallly useless. However, what I CAN tell you, is if the NAM verified verbatim, I would strongly suspect (broadly) that nobody south of I-80 or east of the Delaware would see double-digit amounts. Just my opinion

I would probably go with the Euro/Canadian on this one. A bit more westward trajectory and better consolidation of the mid-level and upper level low pressure. I think the GFS is too strung out and too suppressed. The baroclinic zone alone will give this storm some extra juice. There will probably be convection with this storm as the cold and warm air clash. If you get into that kind of death band, then that's how you approach the insane amounts.

I'll start looking at the NAM probably tomorrow 18Z.

If RB is right i may be in perfect spot with this one.