NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Page 14 of 24 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 19 ... 24  Next

Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:31 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:It's really hard to read anything at the top and bottom.

Good to see you back buddy.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6653
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by SNOW MAN Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:33 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@SNOW MAN wrote:It's really hard to read anything at the top and bottom.

Good to see you back buddy.

Thanks Cp. I know it's been a while.
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1353
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 61
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

CPcantmeasuresnow and Taffy like this post

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by billg315 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:33 pm

GFS would be a disaster for many due to that sharp cutoff to the north, but would also still be a major hit for some people on here. For the sake of the sanity and mental well-being of the board as a whole however I hope it’s off-base.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3604
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ

CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:37 pm

It almost looks to me like the models are suffering from convective feedback issues, which is dragging both the surface representation and modeled precipitation shield too far east (and therefore, thermal profiles). I’ve noticed what appears to be erroneous vorticity in the same region as our progged surface low, and it doesn’t match the rest of the mid- and upper-level forcings. It could also be me just being biased to my ideas at this point, but honestly, it doesn’t make sense.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by Irish Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:41 pm

It seems that if all models were averaged right now, the I95 corridor/ cities are getting slammed either way.

Irish

Posts : 427
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 42
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:42 pm

Some of these maps are getting a little nutty, but I wouldn't complain if this somehow came close to verifying.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Fb_img11

It would certainly be a nice welcome back for SNOWMAN.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6653
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:51 pm

@rb924119 wrote:It almost looks to me like the models are suffering from convective feedback issues, which is dragging both the surface representation and modeled precipitation shield too far east (and therefore, thermal profiles). I’ve noticed what appears to be erroneous vorticity in the same region as our progged surface low, and it doesn’t match the rest of the mid- and upper-level forcings. It could also be me just being biased to my ideas at this point, but honestly, it doesn’t make sense.
I guess i am learning cuz I was going to say this earlier but was affraid to be wrong, but you beat me too it. It does look like convective feedback on GFS, its chasing to the east. IMO GFS is out to lunch.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by SNOW MAN Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:52 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Some of these maps are getting a little nutty, but I wouldn't complain if this somehow came close to verifying.

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Fb_img11

It would certainly be a nice welcome back for SNOWMAN.

Cp, In a way I'm excited for this storm. But in another way I'm not sure I'm up to it yet. I had major spine surgery a few months ago and I don't know if I can handle moving that much snow yet. But I'm sure I'll figure something out. Woooo Hoooo !
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1353
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 61
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

CPcantmeasuresnow and Taffy like this post

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 13, 2020 11:56 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Am I going crazy or did the whole outline of the forum turn pinkish red?
I'm all pink too
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2908
Reputation : 76
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:32 am

I’ll add the UKMET to my list, and the SREFs, but the SREFs are ehhh, I’ve been burned by them before (pun intended lol). Really curious now to see the EURO.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by SoulSingMG Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:19 am

And on that note, I can go to bed & rest assured...

00z EURO

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 E198b010
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:20 am

And the EURO breaks west. I’ll check back in the morning. Good night all.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 14, 2020 1:50 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:And on that note, I can go to bed & rest assured...

00z EURO

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 E198b010
The GFS is out on its own, I think we are in for one heck of a storm, night all!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17926
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by Math23x7 Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:41 am

And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Nam12110

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2285
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:50 am

@Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Nam12110

Don't know what you're looking at it's still a widespread 8 to 16 in from Central New Jersey North if people are looking for two feet of snow they're going to be disappointed be happy with a foot the Nam does dry slot us though and it is the farthest north model but it's definitely not in its range yet
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by billg315 Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:45 am

6z GFS holds with its idea of suppression and a sharp cutoff to the north. We go from over a foot in Central NJ to about 10” in immediate NYC to about 2 or 3” in northern Orange
County, and not much more than an inch north of there.
We are confronted with the problem we often are though: A shift to the north saves our northern board members putting them in the 10” plus zone, however it likely leads to mixing with rain and lower totals back to I-95 putting some our southern and eastern members in the screw zone.
The Euro seems to want to keep everyone happy. But . . . How often does that happen with these storms? We shall see.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3604
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:46 am

@Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Nam12110

Dynamically, and situationally, this actually seems much more believable in my opinion, but we’ll see.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:46 am

6z GFS came north with the heaviest snows but is still a southern outlier.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1714
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 54
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:47 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Nam12110

Dynamically, and situationally, this actually seems much more believable in my opinion, but we’ll see.

It's still 8 to 16 in across the whole tri-state area is that your forecast
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5223
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by billg315 Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:51 am

Actually the 6z NAM is as big as disaster for some of us to the south and East as the GFS is to the folks to the north. In my neck of the woods it would give me just a couple inches. Same for some spots on LI and the northern Jersey coast.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3604
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:59 am

@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Nam12110

Dynamically, and situationally, this actually seems much more believable in my opinion, but we’ll see.

It's still 8 to 16 in across the whole tri-state area is that your forecast

I haven’t put out numbers for this because I didn’t have the time, and knew I wouldn’t have the time to devote to sitting down and actually making a map, and I didn’t want to put something together that was half-arse’d lol that said, I specified the axis of snowfall that was expecting to verify since last week, which was, and remains, the I-81 and along/north of the I-84 corridor for best snow. That said, when I do make snowfall forecasts, I NEVER look at snow maps from modeling because it really tells you nothing. They’re pretty to look at, and can give you a broad-nrushed idea, but for pinpointing, they’re essentiallly useless. However, what I CAN tell you, is if the NAM verified verbatim, I would strongly suspect (broadly) that nobody south of I-80 or east of the Delaware would see double-digit amounts. Just my opinion Smile

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5354
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:59 am

NWS starts the betting by anteing up 8 to 12 inches for my area.Today, all snow event 1 to 3 inches possible.This is great for late Fall!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7213
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:00 am

I would probably go with the Euro/Canadian on this one. A bit more westward trajectory and better consolidation of the mid-level and upper level low pressure. I think the GFS is too strung out and too suppressed. The baroclinic zone alone will give this storm some extra juice. There will probably be convection with this storm as the cold and warm air clash. If you get into that kind of death band, then that's how you approach the insane amounts.

I'll start looking at the NAM probably tomorrow 18Z.

heehaw453

Posts : 1594
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:02 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:And then the 6Z NAM has to be a party pooper:

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Nam12110

Dynamically, and situationally, this actually seems much more believable in my opinion, but we’ll see.

It's still 8 to 16 in across the whole tri-state area is that your forecast

I haven’t put out numbers for this because I didn’t have the time, and knew I wouldn’t have the time to devote to sitting down and actually making a map, and I didn’t want to put something together that was half-arse’d lol that said, I specified the axis of snowfall that was expecting to verify since last week, which was, and remains, the I-81 and along/north of the I-84 corridor for best snow. That said, when I do make snowfall forecasts, I NEVER look at snow maps from modeling because it really tells you nothing. They’re pretty to look at, and can give you a broad-nrushed idea, but for pinpointing, they’re essentiallly useless. However, what I CAN tell you, is if the NAM verified verbatim, I would strongly suspect (broadly) that nobody south of I-80 or east of the Delaware would see double-digit amounts. Just my opinion Smile

I am just south of I 84, so that would give me a better chance at hitting double digits.GFS and NAM are seeing different solutions at this juncture, but still a ways to go yet.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7213
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by jimv45 Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:11 am

If RB is right i may be in perfect spot with this one.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1139
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat??? - Page 14 Empty Re: DECEMBER 16th 17th 2020 Snow Threat???

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 14 of 24 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15 ... 19 ... 24  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum