12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

aiannone wrote:

The overall outline of the pink looks like an outline of Long Island....maybe that all moves SE a bit....Puts the outline of Long Island over Long Island....LOL

Not great Trends today so far hats off to RB on this one it's just amazes me how a 1038 MB arctic high over Quebec and Albany is going to get over a foot of snow can someone explain that to me

The z500 trough was just a bit sharper which IMO makes that difference of the low trajectory. The other thing is the energy doesn't die off as quickly that helps steer it ENE. Surprises are not done yet with this one.

The funny part is the update on the weather channel just went from 1-3" tomorrow and 8-12" tomorrow night for me. To 3-5" and 8-12" and yet for the first time suggested a mix of rain and snow tomorrow night, which would mean lesser snow not more. WTH?

heehaw453 wrote:The z500 trough was just a bit sharper which IMO makes that difference of the low trajectory.  The other thing is the energy doesn't die off as quickly that helps steer it ENE.  Surprises are not done yet with this one.

This is exactly it. And the reason why it’s sharper and tilts negative quicker is because the height field is allowed to expand more ahead of it for reasons previously mentioned.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184

rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184

Can't have the TPV lobe lift out like that as the 50/50 corrects east moving up in time. Needed it in place to de-amplify the primary vort over the CONUS. Too amped=NW trend. Not ideal for snow lovers here in NNJ, but good for folks into PA/NYS/New England. pic.twitter.com/xMPMftJAZh

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) December 15, 2020

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184

jeeze so when do you think NWS caves and removes the WSW to advisories? Or do we wtill have a chance tha tthings change, i will give it to you, i didnt watch your video sorry (too long) but getting general idea of this not what any of us want to see except i guess mikey P. who is slated for 20+ and archmetal I believe is in a good spot too.  GUess i better tell my sister in syracuse to get ready as she says her weather says nothing about more than a flurry.

I have no idea Jman, I can’t speak for them, only agree or disagree, but if I had to venture a guess, I think they’ll probably wait for the 00z cycles......one run does not a trend make, and with over 24 hours to go, they have wiggle room. No worries about the video lol

Thank you Frank lol feel free to remove my old post if you want. My first attempt at passing along a tweet, and I’m not familiar with that interface to begin with aha

A couple of things:

1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??

2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.

3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.

4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!

Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.

Frank_Wx wrote:A couple of things:

1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??

2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.

3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.

4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!

Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.

This tweet talks about #3

A mid level low (700hPa pictured) tracking over Scranton, PA is usually not a good sign for significant snow along the coastal plain, or even in NYC - and it opens up the door for rapid mid level warm air advection (read: sleet, dry slot). pic.twitter.com/0WTKZXbfHR

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) December 15, 2020

Read Bernie Rayno twitter he says calm down not looking at Nam with his 24HR rule until this afternoon, still likes the snow chances stay tuned!!!

MattyICE wrote:I have to say, RB has been fantastic and was eviscersted elsewhere for his less than optimistic view of this storm from a week + out. All the things he’s warned about and seen are POTENTIALLY rearing their ugly heads here. Now could things shift back today?  Of course, and I think to
Some extent they will...but even if we all get rescued with 2 feet of snow, it will still mean that he handled this better than most. I don’t know him, but have lurked a while and posted infrequently, but he’s one of the best I follow. Let’s see what today brings.

Agreed!!! Regardless of the outcome (honestly this thing still has room to come even more NW), he has been terrific with his analysis and presentation of it all.

jmanley32 wrote:Uptons briefing, they still thinking go be a hard impact storm, with uncertainty for LI. This is a pdf file no way to post it as a image.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/winterstorm_public.pdf

Note just realized this is as of 6am, they will have another briefing tonight or in the AM.  If they change their forecast then you know we are in trouble.  Though they have been known to shift back and forth too.

That’s with a 6am time stamp.

But I doubt they reverse course until 18z’s run (if they continue to show NW trend)...