12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

aiannone wrote:

The overall outline of the pink looks like an outline of Long Island....maybe that all moves SE a bit....Puts the outline of Long Island over Long Island....LOL

Not great Trends today so far hats off to RB on this one it's just amazes me how a 1038 MB arctic high over Quebec and Albany is going to get over a foot of snow can someone explain that to me

The z500 trough was just a bit sharper which IMO makes that difference of the low trajectory. The other thing is the energy doesn't die off as quickly that helps steer it ENE. Surprises are not done yet with this one.

aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL

Thats not right, this is what I have for the 3km snow totals.

The funny part is the update on the weather channel just went from 1-3" tomorrow and 8-12" tomorrow night for me. To 3-5" and 8-12" and yet for the first time suggested a mix of rain and snow tomorrow night, which would mean lesser snow not more. WTH?

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL

Thats not right, this is what I have for the 3km snow totals.

JMAN that 10:1 map takes in sleet. positive snow map takes out sleet and adjusts for rain melting. it's the change in snow depth. when you have sleet and rain you cant use 10:1 maps. When it's all snow it doesnt matter which one

heehaw453 wrote:The z500 trough was just a bit sharper which IMO makes that difference of the low trajectory.  The other thing is the energy doesn't die off as quickly that helps steer it ENE.  Surprises are not done yet with this one.

This is exactly it. And the reason why it’s sharper and tilts negative quicker is because the height field is allowed to expand more ahead of it for reasons previously mentioned.

aiannone wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL

Thats not right, this is what I have for the 3km snow totals.

JMAN that 10:1 map takes in sleet. positive snow map takes out sleet and adjusts for rain melting. it's the change in snow depth. when you have sleet and rain you cant use 10:1 maps. When it's all snow it doesnt matter which one

I realized that after I posted it so wow like 10 inches of sleet/rain for NYC area, thats a disaster. But 3km NAm shows all snow on the actually rain/winter precip model run, i dont see rain or sleet over me at all.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184

The GFS was a nice hit, has been hold since 00z with a slightly more north trend of the precip, now the other models have to come wayyy south from where they are other than the Euro and I believe the CMC was okay too, gonna see 12z CMC soon.

rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184

jeeze so when do you think NWS caves and removes the WSW to advisories? Or do we wtill have a chance tha tthings change, i will give it to you, i didnt watch your video sorry (too long) but getting general idea of this not what any of us want to see except i guess mikey P. who is slated for 20+ and archmetal I believe is in a good spot too. GUess i better tell my sister in syracuse to get ready as she says her weather says nothing about more than a flurry.

rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184

Can't have the TPV lobe lift out like that as the 50/50 corrects east moving up in time. Needed it in place to de-amplify the primary vort over the CONUS. Too amped=NW trend. Not ideal for snow lovers here in NNJ, but good for folks into PA/NYS/New England. pic.twitter.com/xMPMftJAZh

— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) December 15, 2020

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184

jeeze so when do you think NWS caves and removes the WSW to advisories? Or do we wtill have a chance tha tthings change, i will give it to you, i didnt watch your video sorry (too long) but getting general idea of this not what any of us want to see except i guess mikey P. who is slated for 20+ and archmetal I believe is in a good spot too.  GUess i better tell my sister in syracuse to get ready as she says her weather says nothing about more than a flurry.

I have no idea Jman, I can’t speak for them, only agree or disagree, but if I had to venture a guess, I think they’ll probably wait for the 00z cycles......one run does not a trend make, and with over 24 hours to go, they have wiggle room. No worries about the video lol

Thank you Frank lol feel free to remove my old post if you want. My first attempt at passing along a tweet, and I’m not familiar with that interface to begin with aha

12z CMC... i can't even...

A couple of things:

1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??

2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.

3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.

4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!

Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.

Frank_Wx wrote:A couple of things:

1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??

2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.

3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.

4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!

Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.

This tweet talks about #3

A mid level low (700hPa pictured) tracking over Scranton, PA is usually not a good sign for significant snow along the coastal plain, or even in NYC - and it opens up the door for rapid mid level warm air advection (read: sleet, dry slot). pic.twitter.com/0WTKZXbfHR

— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) December 15, 2020

Alex. I always believe that low should be 50-75m off the coast. This is not a nor’easter. We can’t 1’ of snow on a ‘SW’ This is inland on the Jersey coast. Even all day yesterday all was to close to the coast. Was 50/50 low going to save us?? Help me Thanks

Oy CMC is rain along coast almost entire time, somehow snow map still shows close to a foot in those areas and it doesnt say including sleet. Not good trends, and if it was 3+ days away I would not be concerned but its about 24 hrs from start time approx. and I would say models are either onto it or just will never get it right.

Read Bernie Rayno twitter he says calm down not looking at Nam with his 24HR rule until this afternoon, still likes the snow chances stay tuned!!!

jimv45 wrote:Read Bernie Rayno twitter he says calm down not looking at Nam with his 24HR rule until this afternoon, still likes the snow chances stay tuned!!!

I like Bernie he is usually pretty good so maybe there is a shred of hope for all of us, not like we are talking just peeps on LI potentially nearly everyone on board could see less than half what is predicted by most outlets now. Amazing to say the least, but Frank is right now that I look back and compare there is no trend like I said a few posts back, its all back and forth, this run went berzerk north, but that doesnt mean I guess it cant go berzerk south again too, watch next set is OTS lol

I have to say, RB has been fantastic and was eviscersted elsewhere for his less than optimistic view of this storm from a week + out. All the things he’s warned about and seen are POTENTIALLY rearing their ugly heads here. Now could things shift back today? Of course, and I think to
Some extent they will...but even if we all get rescued with 2 feet of snow, it will still mean that he handled this better than most. I don’t know him, but have lurked a while and posted infrequently, but he’s one of the best I follow. Let’s see what today brings.

Uptons briefing, they still thinking go be a hard impact storm, with uncertainty for LI. This is a pdf file no way to post it as a image.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/winterstorm_public.pdf

Note just realized this is as of 6am, they will have another briefing tonight or in the AM. If they change their forecast then you know we are in trouble. Though they have been known to shift back and forth too.

MattyICE wrote:I have to say, RB has been fantastic and was eviscersted elsewhere for his less than optimistic view of this storm from a week + out. All the things he’s warned about and seen are POTENTIALLY rearing their ugly heads here. Now could things shift back today?  Of course, and I think to
Some extent they will...but even if we all get rescued with 2 feet of snow, it will still mean that he handled this better than most. I don’t know him, but have lurked a while and posted infrequently, but he’s one of the best I follow. Let’s see what today brings.

Agreed!!! Regardless of the outcome (honestly this thing still has room to come even more NW), he has been terrific with his analysis and presentation of it all.

Frank_Wx wrote:

MattyICE wrote:I have to say, RB has been fantastic and was eviscersted elsewhere for his less than optimistic view of this storm from a week + out. All the things he’s warned about and seen are POTENTIALLY rearing their ugly heads here. Now could things shift back today?  Of course, and I think to
Some extent they will...but even if we all get rescued with 2 feet of snow, it will still mean that he handled this better than most. I don’t know him, but have lurked a while and posted infrequently, but he’s one of the best I follow. Let’s see what today brings.

Agreed!!! Regardless of the outcome (honestly this thing still has room to come even more NW), he has been terrific with his analysis and presentation of it all.

So no SE movement just NW? Should I let my sister know to expect a lot of snow in syracuse or is that too far north?

jmanley32 wrote:Uptons briefing, they still thinking go be a hard impact storm, with uncertainty for LI. This is a pdf file no way to post it as a image.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/winterstorm_public.pdf

Note just realized this is as of 6am, they will have another briefing tonight or in the AM.  If they change their forecast then you know we are in trouble.  Though they have been known to shift back and forth too.

That’s with a 6am time stamp.

But I doubt they reverse course until 18z’s run (if they continue to show NW trend)...