12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
Page 5 of 12 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 10, 11, 12
bloc1357- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 341
Join date : 2013-03-05
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5302
Join date : 2013-02-05
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 3243
Reputation : 84
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 602
Reputation : 18
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 44
Location : Old Bridge, NJ
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
JMAN that 10:1 map takes in sleet. positive snow map takes out sleet and adjusts for rain melting. it's the change in snow depth. when you have sleet and rain you cant use 10:1 maps. When it's all snow it doesnt matter which one
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4577
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
CPcantmeasuresnow likes this post
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
heehaw453 wrote:The z500 trough was just a bit sharper which IMO makes that difference of the low trajectory. The other thing is the energy doesn't die off as quickly that helps steer it ENE. Surprises are not done yet with this one.
This is exactly it. And the reason why it’s sharper and tilts negative quicker is because the height field is allowed to expand more ahead of it for reasons previously mentioned.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6251
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 31
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
I realized that after I posted it so wow like 10 inches of sleet/rain for NYC area, thats a disaster. But 3km NAm shows all snow on the actually rain/winter precip model run, i dont see rain or sleet over me at all.aiannone wrote:
JMAN that 10:1 map takes in sleet. positive snow map takes out sleet and adjusts for rain melting. it's the change in snow depth. when you have sleet and rain you cant use 10:1 maps. When it's all snow it doesnt matter which one
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6251
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 31
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
jeeze so when do you think NWS caves and removes the WSW to advisories? Or do we wtill have a chance tha tthings change, i will give it to you, i didnt watch your video sorry (too long) but getting general idea of this not what any of us want to see except i guess mikey P. who is slated for 20+ and archmetal I believe is in a good spot too. GUess i better tell my sister in syracuse to get ready as she says her weather says nothing about more than a flurry.rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184
Can't have the TPV lobe lift out like that as the 50/50 corrects east moving up in time. Needed it in place to de-amplify the primary vort over the CONUS. Too amped=NW trend. Not ideal for snow lovers here in NNJ, but good for folks into PA/NYS/New England. pic.twitter.com/xMPMftJAZh
— Mike Mostwill (@MikeMostwill) December 15, 2020
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32 wrote:jeeze so when do you think NWS caves and removes the WSW to advisories? Or do we wtill have a chance tha tthings change, i will give it to you, i didnt watch your video sorry (too long) but getting general idea of this not what any of us want to see except i guess mikey P. who is slated for 20+ and archmetal I believe is in a good spot too. GUess i better tell my sister in syracuse to get ready as she says her weather says nothing about more than a flurry.rb924119 wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeMostwill/status/1338875742399197184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1338875742399197184%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMikeMostwill%2Fstatus%2F1338875742399197184
I have no idea Jman, I can’t speak for them, only agree or disagree, but if I had to venture a guess, I think they’ll probably wait for the 00z cycles......one run does not a trend make, and with over 24 hours to go, they have wiggle room. No worries about the video lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6251
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 31
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
RJB8525 likes this post
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6251
Reputation : 193
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 31
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4577
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??
2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.
3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.
4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!
Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
CPcantmeasuresnow and RJB8525 like this post
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
Frank_Wx wrote:A couple of things:
1. How many consecutive days did the GFS try to suppress the storm? Yesterday it made subtle shifts NW, and the EURO made a shift SE, and we thought they were meeting in the middle for consensus. Turns out, GFS has been wrong all along (so it seems after today's run), which begs the question why we even look at it??
2. It appears the NW shift is real, and many areas including CNJ/SNJ will see their forecasted snow amounts drop considerably on my final call map, but I am still thinking we're not done with seeing models move around. I don't think the final solution is shown on the models yet. It's possible this storm comes even MORE NW, given the negative trends we're seeing with the 50/50 and H5 trough, OR the models decide to tick back S-SE in response to the HP to the north.
3. I know point #2 sounded political or a typical "non-wrong" response, but there really is so much uncertainty with several features. I called some of them out in point #2, but the biggest question mark is where the 700mb and 850mb track. Ultimately that will depend on what the 500mb ULL decides to do too. We have not seen enough consistency from any one model to truly have a feel for this storm yet.
4. This just reminds you that people like RB and others are an asset to this board, because they can call BS on some of these model runs in an instant!
Let's see what the rest of today brings. Also, just a reminder to keep banter comments in the banter thread.
This tweet talks about #3
A mid level low (700hPa pictured) tracking over Scranton, PA is usually not a good sign for significant snow along the coastal plain, or even in NYC - and it opens up the door for rapid mid level warm air advection (read: sleet, dry slot). pic.twitter.com/0WTKZXbfHR
— John Homenuk (@jhomenuk) December 15, 2020
Last edited by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:32 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1099
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 77
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1164
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
I like Bernie he is usually pretty good so maybe there is a shred of hope for all of us, not like we are talking just peeps on LI potentially nearly everyone on board could see less than half what is predicted by most outlets now. Amazing to say the least, but Frank is right now that I look back and compare there is no trend like I said a few posts back, its all back and forth, this run went berzerk north, but that doesnt mean I guess it cant go berzerk south again too, watch next set is OTS loljimv45 wrote:Read Bernie Rayno twitter he says calm down not looking at Nam with his 24HR rule until this afternoon, still likes the snow chances stay tuned!!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
Some extent they will...but even if we all get rescued with 2 feet of snow, it will still mean that he handled this better than most. I don’t know him, but have lurked a while and posted infrequently, but he’s one of the best I follow. Let’s see what today brings.
MattyICE- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 180
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 38
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)
rb924119, RJB8525 and SENJsnowman like this post
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/winterstorm_public.pdf
Note just realized this is as of 6am, they will have another briefing tonight or in the AM. If they change their forecast then you know we are in trouble. Though they have been known to shift back and forth too.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 15, 2020 11:47 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
MattyICE wrote:I have to say, RB has been fantastic and was eviscersted elsewhere for his less than optimistic view of this storm from a week + out. All the things he’s warned about and seen are POTENTIALLY rearing their ugly heads here. Now could things shift back today? Of course, and I think to
Some extent they will...but even if we all get rescued with 2 feet of snow, it will still mean that he handled this better than most. I don’t know him, but have lurked a while and posted infrequently, but he’s one of the best I follow. Let’s see what today brings.
Agreed!!! Regardless of the outcome (honestly this thing still has room to come even more NW), he has been terrific with his analysis and presentation of it all.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
rb924119 likes this post
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
So no SE movement just NW? Should I let my sister know to expect a lot of snow in syracuse or is that too far north?Frank_Wx wrote:MattyICE wrote:I have to say, RB has been fantastic and was eviscersted elsewhere for his less than optimistic view of this storm from a week + out. All the things he’s warned about and seen are POTENTIALLY rearing their ugly heads here. Now could things shift back today? Of course, and I think to
Some extent they will...but even if we all get rescued with 2 feet of snow, it will still mean that he handled this better than most. I don’t know him, but have lurked a while and posted infrequently, but he’s one of the best I follow. Let’s see what today brings.
Agreed!!! Regardless of the outcome (honestly this thing still has room to come even more NW), he has been terrific with his analysis and presentation of it all.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 19748
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32 wrote:Uptons briefing, they still thinking go be a hard impact storm, with uncertainty for LI. This is a pdf file no way to post it as a image.
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/winterstorm_public.pdf
Note just realized this is as of 6am, they will have another briefing tonight or in the AM. If they change their forecast then you know we are in trouble. Though they have been known to shift back and forth too.
That’s with a 6am time stamp.

But I doubt they reverse course until 18z’s run (if they continue to show NW trend)...
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2850
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4577
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)
Page 5 of 12 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ... 10, 11, 12