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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:24 pm

billg315 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Well @rb924119  that Euro run made you the most popular man on the Forum. Because after looking at that run . . . everyone is going to be begging this thing to trend further north (or northwest to be exact). lol

I have mixed emotions about the runs today with respect to my thoughts presented earlier. On the one hand, I definitely didn’t like the southward shift across guidance, and it’s all thanks to that pesky strip of shear vorticity and associated confluence that I outlined. On the other hand, though, I am REALLY liking the eastward shift and more ragged appearance of the overall structure, as it lends credence towards my ideas of a later attempt at consolidation that can never be fully achieved until it’s too late for us. This would be a direct consequence of the ridge positioning and eastward propagation working constructively with the confluence to shear the storm structure out and elongate it as it tries to move eastward in response to the ridge but is forced to be squished beneath block.
holy cow that is a mouth full😂 ...in layman's terms.. pls

Cliff Note Version: If we don't get screwed by an easing block and northward trend giving some of us more rain and others lighter snow, we'll get screwed by a squished system being squeezed off to the east too far offshore for any of us. Or in other words, rb still really doesn't like our chances. How's that for me oversimplifying rb's much more detailed and scientific analysis? lol.
Thanks for trying..but I think I like his version better since I did not know what he was saying... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:31 pm

DT’s (wxrisk) write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/first-thoughts-on-major-noreaster-jan-31-feb-feb-2-c7bc32741d66

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:43 pm

Isn't the energy from this not even on shore until tomorrow?

Until tomorrow nights runs have that fed into them I'm not sweating this. However if we get the same trends or even God forbid crap like the Euro just spit out in tomorrow nights runs then I'll start to be worried. Very worried.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:45 pm

Euro now has ULL way down into NY with more of an East/West orientation. This is causing the storm to head more NE to the East of the benchmark as opposed to the more NNE track on the other models forcing the storm to the benchmark.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:53 pm

aiannone wrote:DT’s (wxrisk) write up
https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/first-thoughts-on-major-noreaster-jan-31-feb-feb-2-c7bc32741d66
well I much like his snow map most of us are in 12+.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:56 pm

I like what the 00z NAM did aloft. Still have a ways to go, but at least it reversed course from 18z lmao

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:I like what the 00z NAM did aloft. Still have a ways to go, but at least it reversed course from 18z lmao

That ULL is headed south of us

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 Namconus_z500a_us_53

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Post by dsix85 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:06 pm

Is that good or bad for us Frank?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:12 pm

dsix85 wrote:Is that good or bad for us Frank?

Mixed emotions

If the ULL were to stay on a path across central PA or even the PA/NY border as Ray believes might happen, the secondary would develop more north and likely tucked into the coast bringing significant impacts to everyone on the board. The risk with a ULL being south is the secondary developing too far south and or east but some areas, including NYC, would get into the action. Ultimately depends where you live!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:16 pm

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 D3c89e10

00z ICON

Madonne

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I like what the 00z NAM did aloft. Still have a ways to go, but at least it reversed course from 18z lmao

That ULL is headed south of us

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 Namconus_z500a_us_53

Indeed, but at least it’s not as far haha

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 D3c89e10

00z ICON

Madonne

Sorry. Here’s the full run.

Cazzo!!!

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 8b9daf10

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:23 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I like what the 00z NAM did aloft. Still have a ways to go, but at least it reversed course from 18z lmao

That ULL is headed south of us

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 Namconus_z500a_us_53

Indeed, but at least it’s not as far haha

Honestly this forecast makes my head hurt


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:25 pm

My guess is this “south” trend continues through tonight then we begin seeing subtle north shifts starting tomorrow

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I like what the 00z NAM did aloft. Still have a ways to go, but at least it reversed course from 18z lmao

That ULL is headed south of us

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 Namconus_z500a_us_53

Indeed, but at least it’s not as far haha

Honestly this forecast makes my head hurt


Oh trust me, my anguish last night was real, and the anxiety ever since has been no better lol!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:My guess is this “south” trend continues through tonight then we begin seeing subtle north shifts starting tomorrow

Your guess is as good as any. Usually about this time we start seeing northward shifts, and then inside of a day, or so, we see slight ticks south. But this has been pretty consistent aside from today’s 18z’s. Very interesting case.

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Post by TheAresian Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:38 pm

How much of what is projected to happen north and east of the low is being decided by the confluence? Does a greater confluence mean more of a southern push or would a weakening of the confluence mean the upper level low would stay more northern?

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 D3c89e10

00z ICON

Madonne

Sorry. Here’s the full run.

Cazzo!!!

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 9 8b9daf10

Snow starved SENJ in Ocean County wants this to happen so badly. That there is 10-15" of white gold, all up in my backyard. Heavy, romantic sigh. Can I sign and drive for this right now please? Matter of fact, y'all can have 2" on me, I'll go down to 8-12".  

Cautious optimism. Cautious Optimism. Such a fun day tracking. All day my stupid app was saying No snow for me! And now, Icon and Weatherisk say Snow for me! Cautious optimism. Cautious Optimism.

At this moment, I feel like it's a 50/50 chance. Which on the one hand sounds GREAT. But on the other hand, that's a nice way of saying WHO KNOWS.  LMAO.  I love it. The thrill is in the hunt...and the hunt is on!

Cautious Optimism. Cautious Optimism. Oh...BillG and Graybeard etc, on behalf of the whole Shore crew (including our very own rb), we thank you for your support! Been some lean times with barely a chance for a winter storm, and all we can do is hope, but this might be a biggie for most or even all of us on the whole board.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:54 pm

TheAresian wrote:How much of what is projected to happen north and east of the low is being decided by the confluence? Does a greater confluence mean more of a southern push or would a weakening of the confluence mean the upper level low would stay more northern?

Turn your last two questions into statements, because they’re dead on accurate haha the confluence is essentially the governing factor. More confluence, a stronger southward press, less confluence and less of a southward press.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:57 pm

Gosh, the changes aloft on GFS are exactly what I want to see for my forecast, I just need more haha verbatim, should be a decent run for a majority here.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:58 pm

GFS is going to show a bomb....

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:00 pm

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:10 pm

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:15 pm

Canadian is insane

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:20 pm

Changes aloft are day and night. I’m feeling better now lol

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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:23 pm

200 mile shift straight north at H5 in one run. I’ll take it!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:28 pm

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