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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:49 pm

sroc4 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Euro11

I expect further N&W shifts. EURO just made a 100 mile jump north from its 00z run. Might look at another 50 miles tonight and 50 miles tomorrow. Initial thoughts are 3-6" I-84 and points N&W,  6-10" I-80 to I-84, 10"+ south of I-80

The way this has been trending S and E, I will take that 6 inches and run with it.My Sister in Ocean Grove NJ will be in Heaven with this, she loves snow as much as me, and she got nothing but rain in the December storm.Good for the Shore and LI peeps!!!

I can hear the slap on Cp's forehead with the palm of his hand with that last statement Doc...lol

lol! lol! lol! lol! HILARIOUS DOC!

I wouldn't want to be around him when he sees this model,LOL.Shades of Nemo !!!
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Euro11

I expect further N&W shifts. EURO just made a 100 mile jump north from its 00z run. Might look at another 50 miles tonight and 50 miles tomorrow. Initial thoughts are 3-6" I-84 and points N&W,  6-10" I-80 to I-84, 10"+ south of I-80

The way this has been trending S and E, I will take that 6 inches and run with it.My Sister in Ocean Grove NJ will be in Heaven with this, she loves snow as much as me, and she got nothing but rain in the December storm.Good for the Shore and LI peeps!!!
ymothrayeah I guess when it comes down to it northern people gotta let them.hthem.have it but as you know my area and on south have also got the shaft for 2 yrs except Dec. I'm hoping for a expansion of precip not necessarily a jump north to drop people out. Irish def needs a storm. I can see him get a bit antsy lol totally kidding around with you all in good fun.

Hell yeah I do! I used to get antsy, these days I just expect to miss out but am feeling good here! We'll see what happens...

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:53 pm

Is it me or does it look like it nearly gets vertically stacked off the coast?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:07 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is it me or does it look like it nearly gets vertically stacked off the coast?

Not just you. Thats what will eventual occlude the system causing the decay of the surface low and the eventual fizzle to the precip.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:13 pm

The EPS shows the biggest signal in Monmouth and Ocean counties.  Not too far off like GEFS and GEPS were with their respective operational models.  This run on the Euro though did shift significantly NW overall.  

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Eps10

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:15 pm

sroc4 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is it me or does it look like it nearly gets vertically stacked off the coast?

Not just you.  Thats what will eventual occlude the system causing the decay of the surface low and the eventual fizzle to the precip.  

Is that a result of the stall happening or is that what helps to cause the stall in the first place? Trying to wrap my head around it.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:16 pm

The maturation process of this storm is going to be very interesting from meteorological standpoint. It will all come down to that IMHO. To what degree does any modeled confluence in NE disturb that process? Stay tuned.

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:19 pm

I am feeling the strong urge to hit radio silence at this time. CAUTIOUS optimism it is. 48 hours to hold the jackpot...oh my goodness. Does is it go from jackpot to coastal hugger in one run. Or worse, over the course of four runs!!! Does it hold as is? Does it tick NW perfectly and throw frozen manna back to NEPA and LHV? Is suppression still on the table? And what of rb won kenobi and his prophecies?

And to top it off, I'm done working for the day...nothing to do but reflect on it all...and be cautiously optimistic. affraid

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:26 pm

The final result? I doubt it three days out but hopefully someone on the forum jackpots and the move north continues.

Like I've been saying the runs tonight will be big. Hopefully no one is spiking the ball yet because with three days to go a map will below will usually not hold serve. If it does I'll live with it and feel good for senjsnowman, he's owed a good storm.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Receiv10
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:31 pm

EPS!!!!!!!!!! SAYS HOLD MY BEER!

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Ecmwf-deterministic-ne-mslp-1611921600-1612148400-1612375200-40.gif.889acc68c83000b36d9a0de66832a6a0

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:33 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is it me or does it look like it nearly gets vertically stacked off the coast?

Not just you.  Thats what will eventual occlude the system causing the decay of the surface low and the eventual fizzle to the precip.  

Is that a result of the stall happening or is that what helps to cause the stall in the first place? Trying to wrap my head around it.

The stall is from the log jam to the NE associated with the -NAO and 50/50 low.  Because of the stall as the 500 mb ULL matures, the trough begins to tilt neutral then go negative.  This usually indicates the surface low has reaches maturity.  But if its sits as is the case with a block eventually the cold front on the back side of the Low "catches up" with the warm front.  When this happens is when the low becomes "occluded"  Its a complex process but the mid level lows do tend tto align during this process but there is more to it.  Perhaps someone with a bit more know;ledge can explain it better.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.00      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:34 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The final result? I doubt it three days out but hopefully someone on the forum jackpots and the move north continues.

Like I've been saying the runs tonight will be big. Hopefully no one is spiking the ball yet because with three days to go a map will below will usually not hold serve. If it does I'll live with it and feel good for senjsnowman, he's owed a good storm.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Receiv10

Gotta feel good for those who jackpot. Better some win than we all loose! However, I'm hoping by some very very good fortune, that the jackpot zone somehow expands to hit all of us.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:38 pm

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 228992800_download(16).png.c9b5da532793d9d6d33872ba1dacef91

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:41 pm

Grselig wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The final result? I doubt it three days out but hopefully someone on the forum jackpots and the move north continues.

Like I've been saying the runs tonight will be big. Hopefully no one is spiking the ball yet because with three days to go a map will below will usually not hold serve. If it does I'll live with it and feel good for senjsnowman, he's owed a good storm.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Receiv10

Gotta feel good for those who jackpot.  Better some win than we all loose!  However, I'm hoping by some very very good fortune, that the jackpot zone somehow expands to hit all of us.

My SNJ peeps need some love, but when was the last time a storm put down something like this? Putting all the model guidance aside, and my snow weenie goggles, it just doesn't look like the final outcome in my eyes.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:45 pm

In early February 2010 this region was hit with two snowstorms. The first, Feb 5-6, 2010 trekked from the Gulf States to the mid-Atlantic but got suppressed with a sharp cutoff to the north. Maryland, Delaware, southern PA and South Jersey got hammered with over a foot of snow (over 20" in some places) while NYC proper and North Jersey got just some light snow and a few inches just south of NYC. When I saw the models today trending south I wondered if a similar situation was setting up.

But . . . there was a second storm. On Feb. 9-10, 2010 that followed on the heels of the Feb. 5-6 storm. Northern energy combined with a weaker southern piece to form a potent storm in the Illinois/Indiana area. It then trekked east to Ohio before transferring energy to a developing Low off the Carolina coast. That Low moved to off the Maryland coast and then to just east of Delaware/Southeast of NJ where it ran into strong blocking to the north and northeast (sound familiar?). The blocking caused the Low to slow to a crawl and spin off the NJ coast for awhile. Again, the blocking limited the northern progression of snow, but much further north in this case than the Feb. 5/6 storm. Generally 10-20" of snow fell across PA, the heart of NJ and right into NYC. Areas just north got several inches as did extreme South Jersey.
I'm thinking the models are going to end up giving us something much more like Feb. 10-11, 2010, than Feb. 5-6, 2010. We shall see.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:47 pm

Snow map of Feb 10-11, 2010 storm.01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 4adeb910
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:53 pm

SREFS
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 14242710
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:56 pm

What I don't understand is if the ULL remained in the same place, which was the reason the Euro pushed this storm so far south, what happened during the run that allowed the shift to the north? Did the ULL retreat at some point to allow it to happen?
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:59 pm

Totally Agree with CP and EssexPete. Always better to win late than to win early.

And Bill, to your point, looking at all the model 12z runs, the heavy snow axis has seemed to align in the same manner. From here, where does it trend and finish??

And not for nothing, I only really jackpot in two of these. Mixing still showing as a concern way up to Monmouth County in those first 3 maps. But, still it's nice to be 3-5 miles away from those jackpots as well. And I do appreciate the shout outs. But let's not forget about Skins up in Toms River- he's paid a lot more dues on the board than I have!  

GFS
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Gfs11

ICON
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Icon10

NAM
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Nam10

CMC
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Cmc10

Euro
01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Euro10

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:02 pm

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 1.png.11c2cfec557efde9d1734d008d5a8fe8

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:03 pm

WPC narrowing the posts.  The big take away is removing a lot of NW areas.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Wpc210

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Post by GreyBeard Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:03 pm

Here's the windshield wiper effect I hope we all see.01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 16 Blizza15

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:04 pm

billg315 wrote:In early February 2010 this region was hit with two snowstorms. The first, Feb 5-6, 2010 trekked from the Gulf States to the mid-Atlantic but got suppressed with a sharp cutoff to the north. Maryland, Delaware, southern PA and South Jersey got hammered with over a foot of snow (over 20" in some places) while NYC proper and North Jersey got just some light snow and a few inches just south of NYC. When I saw the models today trending south I wondered if a similar situation was setting up.

But . . . there was a second storm. On Feb. 9-10, 2010 that followed on the heels of the Feb. 5-6 storm. Northern energy combined with a weaker southern piece to form a potent storm in the Illinois/Indiana area. It then trekked east to Ohio before transferring energy to a developing Low off the Carolina coast. That Low moved to off the Maryland coast and then to just east of Delaware/Southeast of NJ where it ran into strong blocking to the north and northeast (sound familiar?). The blocking caused the Low to slow to a crawl and spin off the NJ coast for awhile. Again, the blocking limited the northern progression of snow, but much further north in this case than the Feb. 5/6 storm. Generally 10-20" of snow fell across PA, the heart of NJ and right into NYC. Areas just north got several inches as did extreme South Jersey.
I'm thinking the models are going to end up giving us something much more like Feb. 10-11, 2010, than Feb. 5-6, 2010. We shall see.

Thanks Bill, I was trying to figure out what year this was, as it was the answer to my own question "when was the last time a soln like this (EURO) came to fruition?"

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Post by DAYBLAZER Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:05 pm

Honestly, I am perfectly okay with where the models have this setting up right now. Even though my area (Sussex/Morris border) isn't getting the heavy stuff, we have seen trends over the past few storms Northern corrections the closer we get to go time. So I'm holding tight for the moment.

That being said, if this doesn't follow those trends and this stays an I-95 special, nothing but love for you guys down there!
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:22 pm

First watches flying up out of Mt. Holly:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 7
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph creating
significant blowing and drifting of snow.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey
and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Monday night.
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