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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by DAYBLAZER Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:05 pm

Honestly, I am perfectly okay with where the models have this setting up right now. Even though my area (Sussex/Morris border) isn't getting the heavy stuff, we have seen trends over the past few storms Northern corrections the closer we get to go time. So I'm holding tight for the moment.

That being said, if this doesn't follow those trends and this stays an I-95 special, nothing but love for you guys down there!

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:22 pm

First watches flying up out of Mt. Holly:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 7
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph creating
significant blowing and drifting of snow.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey
and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Monday night.

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Post by larryrock72 Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:23 pm

The set up for South Jersey is overwhelming right now, but we are still many hours away from a solution. Living down here I know the game. I do see a lot of 18-24" models for ocean county. My question for Rb or snowman is the temps show 38-40 degrees here on Monday how will it overcome those warm temps to stay all snow?

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:26 pm

Nam is kind of amped up on the H7. This means the storm is forming closer the coast. The closer it forms to the coast the more dynamic this is probably going to be for our area.

Let's see how this affects the run.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 17 Nam70010

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:33 pm

larryrock72 wrote:The set up for South Jersey is overwhelming right now, but we are still many hours away from a solution. Living down here I know the game. I do see a lot of 18-24" models for ocean county. My question for Rb or snowman is the temps show 38-40 degrees here on Monday how will it overcome those warm temps to stay all snow?

As far as I can tell, the apps always track with the GFS, which is still showing coastal mixing due to a hugging track. That will bring the higher temps. It's not that a higher progged temp will ruin the snow. The closer track brings the warmth and the app reflects that. Also, with the right track and intensity we column cooling and such, i think, so surface temps could say 35-38 and it could still snow.

Twc just upped me to double digits snow fall potential. Big winds coming in too...

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Post by larryrock72 Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:42 pm

We walk a fine line down here that's for sure. Too close for my comfort. Thanks for the input.

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Post by dsix85 Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:42 pm

Given the long duration of this event, I'm not getting the sense the "B" word is being thrown out there. Haven't heard much about winds being a big factor.

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:44 pm

Based on things I'm seeing now, they think the storm is coming in a bit earlier now and ending a bit earlier in Tuesday, versus just 12 hours ago when they were pushing the start back. Also throwing down 7-14 range for my area. That amount has danced from 6-12 to as high as 13-20. We'll see what really happens...
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:54 pm

18z nam looks nice even for just north of NYC, but its a sharp cut off after i would say westchester county. The same place in south jersey on shore sees 20+ inches, sick. Thats very unusual but awesome if it happens for you guys, I sure know what its like to get nada and everyone else gets slammed..
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:55 pm

dsix85 wrote:Given the long duration of this event, I'm not getting the sense the "B" word is being thrown out there. Haven't heard much about winds being a big factor.
oh ya for sure, criteria is only 35mph for i think a 6 hr period so it could easily be so from NJ to longisland and parts of NYC area maybe even western CT.

Oh NOT, i missed that actually if you read the watch for NJ it says 50mph winds which surely will cause the B word, too early for that to be known.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:00 pm

Also the CMC had me down for 23 inches in last nights 0Z and today the 12Z CMC has me at 3 inches.

Just goes to show this isn't done yet one way or the other. I think tomorrows 12z's will have this pretty well nailed down and tonights 0Z's should give us more clarification.

I'm still not taking anything to seriously today and that will include the 6Z's coming up.
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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:00 pm

I bet the snowfall distribution in this ends up being close to the snowfall in that Feb 9-10, 2010 storm. All the models are dancing around, but they're all right in the same neighborhood as that storm with a similar setup.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:01 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Also the CMC had me down for 23 inches in last nights 0Z and today the 12Z CMC has me at 3 inches.

Just goes to show this isn't done yet one way or the other.  I think tomorrows 12z's will have this pretty well nailed down and tonights 0Z's should give us more clarification.

I'm still not taking anything to seriously today and that will include the 6Z's coming up.
CP get some rest, the 6z is coming up but not until tomorrow morning, the 18z is next my friend lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:03 pm

billg315 wrote:I bet the snowfall distribution in this ends up being close to the snowfall in that Feb 9-10, 2010 storm. All the models are dancing around, but they're all right in the same neighborhood as that storm with a similar setup.
they do kinda look like it, il ltake 10-20 but im on that very tip northern end so thats slicing it real thin, nail biter here for sure.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:10 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Nam is kind of amped up on the H7.  This means the storm is forming closer the coast.  The closer it forms to the coast the more dynamic this is probably going to be for our area.

Let's see how this affects the run.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 17 Nam70010

Looks like it did funky things at the surface. Probably not right

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:21 pm

18Z nam at hour 84. Not it's best time frame but in line with some of the big boys thinking at 12Z.

Tomorrows 12Z should give us clarity. Lots of different models putting the bulls eye in CNJ to coast today. That should make you guys happy and nervous.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 17 Namcon10
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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:26 pm

Winter storm watch us are going off already in south of New Jersey

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:28 pm

We haven't seen this in 3 years!!! What's the word? It's cathartic!
I know how uncertain it is. But it is still cool...and I as of 00z tonight, we're in the short range with all the data.  Me waiting the 00z runs tonight =  pale


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

NJZ012>015-017>020-022-027-PAZ070-071-104-106-300915-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.210131T2100Z-210202T0600Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Atlantic-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Trenton, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly,
Jackson, Hammonton, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia,
Norristown, Lansdale, Morrisville, and Doylestown
314 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...


* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 7
 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph creating
 significant blowing and drifting of snow.


* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey
 and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
 conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will develop west to east late Sunday
 and last through late Monday or early Tuesday. A period of
 wintry mix or rain could occur Sunday night and Monday morning,
 especially along and near the coast, before turning back to snow
 Monday afternoon. The highest snowfall rates are most likely to
 occur late Monday.

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:30 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:18Z nam at hour 84. Not it's best time frame but in line with some of the big boys thinking at 12Z.

Tomorrows 12Z should give us clarity. Lots of different models putting the bulls eye in CNJ to coast today. That should make you guys happy and nervous.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 17 Namcon10

I actually like my spot in CNJ because I'm in, or close to the cross hairs and I highly doubt this thing shifts further south but if it did, I'd still be close to a foot. If it shifts north, I'm probably even more in the bullseye.

I haven't been this pumped about a storm in years!

Like Christmas morning! santa
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:32 pm

Are we doing a Zoom for this baby?  When would be best tonight, tomorrow night, Sunday night?

Also, shouldn't the scroll be changed to Major winter storm from Sunday night through Tuesday morning?
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Post by dsix85 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:38 pm

Godzilla mode, Irish!

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:38 pm

Irish wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:18Z nam at hour 84. Not it's best time frame but in line with some of the big boys thinking at 12Z.

Tomorrows 12Z should give us clarity. Lots of different models putting the bulls eye in CNJ to coast today. That should make you guys happy and nervous.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 17 Namcon10

I actually like my spot in CNJ because I'm in, or close to the cross hairs and I highly doubt this thing shifts further south but if it did, I'd still be close to a foot. If it shifts north, I'm probably even more in the bullseye.

I haven't been this pumped about a storm in years!  

Like Christmas morning!  santa
I must note its still snowing good at that time stamp, the storm hasnt moved out yet.
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:43 pm

dsix85 wrote:Godzilla mode, Irish!

LOVE IT! We could see a Roidzilla in places (HECS)!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:46 pm

Irish wrote:
dsix85 wrote:Godzilla mode, Irish!

LOVE IT!  We could see a Roidzilla in places (HECS)!
don't jinx it guys, i know irish you may not believe it but trust me a lot of people here do.
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:48 pm

Irish wrote:

I actually like my spot in CNJ because I'm in, or close to the cross hairs and I highly doubt this thing shifts further south but if it did, I'd still be close to a foot. If it shifts north, I'm probably even more in the bullseye.

I haven't been this pumped about a storm in years!  

Like Christmas morning!  santa

Agreed, you're in a good area where some movement either way in the models should still give you plenty.

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:48 pm

The setup looks like slow moving and no way to know yet how much when. I think the how much is going to be spread out over a major chunk of time and episodic bursts of snow will hit here and there. How's the N/NW trend looking? It is there or is it "that's it".

Tell me how I should see it but to me, a slow-mover means staying relatively in place and thus all the factors of the setup will be pushing the system around, up, down, inside out, and here and there. Thus, the story is going to be known after it has left town.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:49 pm

I’m up here watching the storm from a frigid Montréal and feel the need to apologize in advance to the more northern members of the forum for the Canadian cold air suppression—this airmass means business! Happy tracking. I love you
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