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01/31 Possible Winter Storm

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:48 pm

The setup looks like slow moving and no way to know yet how much when. I think the how much is going to be spread out over a major chunk of time and episodic bursts of snow will hit here and there. How's the N/NW trend looking? It is there or is it "that's it".

Tell me how I should see it but to me, a slow-mover means staying relatively in place and thus all the factors of the setup will be pushing the system around, up, down, inside out, and here and there. Thus, the story is going to be known after it has left town.

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:49 pm

I’m up here watching the storm from a frigid Montréal and feel the need to apologize in advance to the more northern members of the forum for the Canadian cold air suppression—this airmass means business! Happy tracking. I love you

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:56 pm

Gfs can’t handle the dynamics. Look at all these small lows within the parent low. Just doesn’t look right at the surface, but at H5 GFS looks improved over 12z

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 253a2e10

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01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Empty Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:00 pm

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fc482b10

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Post by CnWestMilford76 Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fc482b10

Isn’t this precip expanded north from previous run?
Seems to be trending north?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:08 pm

CnWestMilford76 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fc482b10

Isn’t this precip expanded north from previous run?
Seems to be trending north?

Definitely.

I’m just stating that it’s still catching on at the surface. Maybe 00z tonight it will correct itself

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01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Empty Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:09 pm

CnWestMilford76 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fc482b10

Isn’t this precip expanded north from previous run?
Seems to be trending north?

Looks like it for sure, as the shore and coastal areas are listed as 7-8 inches there, whereas, they were the bullseye before getting upper teens- lower 20s.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:15 pm

larryrock72 wrote:The set up for South Jersey is overwhelming right now, but we are still many hours away from a solution. Living down here I know the game. I do see a lot of 18-24" models for ocean county. My question for Rb or snowman is the temps show 38-40 degrees here on Monday how will it overcome those warm temps to stay all snow?

Anything that starts as rain or mix will turn to snow relatively quickly for SNJ. Unless there’s dramatic shifts NW where the low track over you instead of SE of you. Then that will introduce mixing and lower snow amounts.

dsix85 wrote:Given the long duration of this event, I'm not getting the sense the "B" word is being thrown out there. Haven't heard much about winds being a big factor.

I’m not seeing it. Classic CCB will bring a narrow stripe of possibly 12”+ snows from SNJ-LI OR CNJ-NNJ-NYC-SW CT OR EPA-NNJ-SNY

Whoever is lucky enough to be under that band will jackpot

Irish wrote:Are we doing a Zoom for this baby?  When would be best tonight, tomorrow night, Sunday night?

Also, shouldn't the scroll be changed to Major winter storm from Sunday night through Tuesday morning?

Janet had texted me but I’m not available this weekend. You’re correct this will go until Tuesday

dsix85 wrote:Godzilla mode, Irish!

Not quite yet but...

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:18 pm

Gefs are NW of OP again

Zoom in on members 2, 16, and 20

Beautiful. That can STILL happen if models figure out the surface features

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 3cf36a10

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:19 pm

Para GFS - wow!!!!

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 7b666d10

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:20 pm

Gfs v16 (new GFS) is similar to GFS.  Just a bit further north.  Dropping 20" or so in many locations. Wow...


01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Paragf11

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01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Empty Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:21 pm

Gefs mean

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 18cb7a10

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Gefs are NW of OP again

Zoom in on members 2, 16, and 20

Beautiful. That can STILL happen if models figure out the surface features

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 3cf36a10

The spread is not as dramatic. Definitely tightening up.

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01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Empty Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm

Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:23 pm

Irish wrote:
CnWestMilford76 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fc482b10

Isn’t this precip expanded north from previous run?
Seems to be trending north?

Looks like it for sure, as the shore and coastal areas are listed as 7-8 inches there, whereas, they were the bullseye before getting upper teens- lower 20s.

Different models Irish. The GFS has been showing lower totals pretty consistently. The 18z Nam still hit your area with 14-16".

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Namcon10

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Gefs mean

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 18cb7a10
The mean does not, which to me is a good sign but most of the surface snow maps models seem to cut off the hudson vally and westchester and have much higher snows just to the west in jersey, why is this being consistently shown? And is there anyway this changes so that its more uniform? Its kind a weird sideways cutoff rather than a NW movement, almost seems to go around the area, lol not new to me, happened b4.


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Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Para GFS - wow!!!!

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 7b666d10

That pink/ melon bullseye for 26-28 inches is literally on my house! Sign me up!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:37 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
larryrock72 wrote:The set up for South Jersey is overwhelming right now, but we are still many hours away from a solution. Living down here I know the game. I do see a lot of 18-24" models for ocean county. My question for Rb or snowman is the temps show 38-40 degrees here on Monday how will it overcome those warm temps to stay all snow?

Anything that starts as rain or mix will turn to snow relatively quickly for SNJ. Unless there’s dramatic shifts NW where the low track over you instead of SE of you. Then that will introduce mixing and lower snow amounts.

dsix85 wrote:Given the long duration of this event, I'm not getting the sense the "B" word is being thrown out there. Haven't heard much about winds being a big factor.

I’m not seeing it. Classic CCB will bring a narrow stripe of possibly 12”+ snows from SNJ-LI OR CNJ-NNJ-NYC-SW CT OR EPA-NNJ-SNY

Whoever is lucky enough to be under that band will jackpot

Irish wrote:Are we doing a Zoom for this baby?  When would be best tonight, tomorrow night, Sunday night?

Also, shouldn't the scroll be changed to Major winter storm from Sunday night through Tuesday morning?

Janet had texted me but I’m not available this weekend. You’re correct this will go until Tuesday

dsix85 wrote:Godzilla mode, Irish!

Not quite yet but...

Thanks for the update...just hanging back trying not to get too excited...Irish only 15 min from you...but don't mind being in the pink


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by GreyBeard Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:37 pm

I think CP summed it up pretty well when he said that everybody likes the model that gives them the highest amounts.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:39 pm

GEFS moisture.  Not dramatic changes run to run.  That is good IMO, but definitely noticeable push north.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Gfs-en12

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Post by CnWestMilford76 Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:48 pm

Oh man... wondering what the Euro does next after it’s dramatic jump on the 12Z from its previous run...

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Post by jaydoy Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:33 pm

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fcefe510

My township just posted this, 2-3” 😦😦😦 that doesn’t sound right to me

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:37 pm

jaydoy wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fcefe510

My township just posted this, 2-3” 😦😦😦 that doesn’t sound right to me

That's just for Sunday night and that yellow and orange area isn't 2-3 inches, it's 6-12 inches.
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Post by jaydoy Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:43 pm

Irish wrote:
jaydoy wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fcefe510

My township just posted this, 2-3” 😦😦😦 that doesn’t sound right to me

That's just for Sunday night and that yellow and orange area isn't 2-3 inches, it's 6-12 inches.

Oh good lol, I was starting to get a little worried!!!


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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:05 pm

Fwiw so far 18z euro a tad less confluence and heights are a bit higher on approach. If continues will likely mean a more northerly track. Let’s see

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:14 pm

jaydoy wrote:
Irish wrote:
jaydoy wrote:01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Fcefe510

My township just posted this, 2-3” 😦😦😦 that doesn’t sound right to me


That's just for Sunday night and that yellow and orange area isn't 2-3 inches, it's 6-12 inches.

Oh good lol, I was starting to get a little worried!!!

that says Sunday through Monday so it's the whole storm I believe. Nws always err on cautious but if you carried that into my area looks like 3 to 4. If so so be it but hoping for more than a dusting and 3 to 4 is a dusting to me lol


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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:14 pm

sroc4 wrote:Fwiw so far 18z euro a tad less confluence and heights are a bit higher on approach. If continues will likely mean a more northerly track. Let’s see

Looks like a much more negative tilt to the 500 mb trough. That to me is key.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:18 pm

Euro tucked and trough went negative.

01/31 Possible Winter Storm - Page 18 Euro15

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