01/31 Possible Winter Storm
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
The setup looks like slow moving and no way to know yet how much when. I think the how much is going to be spread out over a major chunk of time and episodic bursts of snow will hit here and there. How's the N/NW trend looking? It is there or is it "that's it".
Tell me how I should see it but to me, a slow-mover means staying relatively in place and thus all the factors of the setup will be pushing the system around, up, down, inside out, and here and there. Thus, the story is going to be known after it has left town.
Tell me how I should see it but to me, a slow-mover means staying relatively in place and thus all the factors of the setup will be pushing the system around, up, down, inside out, and here and there. Thus, the story is going to be known after it has left town.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
I’m up here watching the storm from a frigid Montréal and feel the need to apologize in advance to the more northern members of the forum for the Canadian cold air suppression—this airmass means business! Happy tracking.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
larryrock72 wrote:The set up for South Jersey is overwhelming right now, but we are still many hours away from a solution. Living down here I know the game. I do see a lot of 18-24" models for ocean county. My question for Rb or snowman is the temps show 38-40 degrees here on Monday how will it overcome those warm temps to stay all snow?
Anything that starts as rain or mix will turn to snow relatively quickly for SNJ. Unless there’s dramatic shifts NW where the low track over you instead of SE of you. Then that will introduce mixing and lower snow amounts.
dsix85 wrote:Given the long duration of this event, I'm not getting the sense the "B" word is being thrown out there. Haven't heard much about winds being a big factor.
I’m not seeing it. Classic CCB will bring a narrow stripe of possibly 12”+ snows from SNJ-LI OR CNJ-NNJ-NYC-SW CT OR EPA-NNJ-SNY
Whoever is lucky enough to be under that band will jackpot
Irish wrote:Are we doing a Zoom for this baby? When would be best tonight, tomorrow night, Sunday night?
Also, shouldn't the scroll be changed to Major winter storm from Sunday night through Tuesday morning?
Janet had texted me but I’m not available this weekend. You’re correct this will go until Tuesday
dsix85 wrote:Godzilla mode, Irish!
Not quite yet but...
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
The mean does not, which to me is a good sign but most of the surface snow maps models seem to cut off the hudson vally and westchester and have much higher snows just to the west in jersey, why is this being consistently shown? And is there anyway this changes so that its more uniform? Its kind a weird sideways cutoff rather than a NW movement, almost seems to go around the area, lol not new to me, happened b4.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:larryrock72 wrote:The set up for South Jersey is overwhelming right now, but we are still many hours away from a solution. Living down here I know the game. I do see a lot of 18-24" models for ocean county. My question for Rb or snowman is the temps show 38-40 degrees here on Monday how will it overcome those warm temps to stay all snow?
Anything that starts as rain or mix will turn to snow relatively quickly for SNJ. Unless there’s dramatic shifts NW where the low track over you instead of SE of you. Then that will introduce mixing and lower snow amounts.dsix85 wrote:Given the long duration of this event, I'm not getting the sense the "B" word is being thrown out there. Haven't heard much about winds being a big factor.
I’m not seeing it. Classic CCB will bring a narrow stripe of possibly 12”+ snows from SNJ-LI OR CNJ-NNJ-NYC-SW CT OR EPA-NNJ-SNY
Whoever is lucky enough to be under that band will jackpotIrish wrote:Are we doing a Zoom for this baby? When would be best tonight, tomorrow night, Sunday night?
Also, shouldn't the scroll be changed to Major winter storm from Sunday night through Tuesday morning?
Janet had texted me but I’m not available this weekend. You’re correct this will go until Tuesdaydsix85 wrote:Godzilla mode, Irish!
Not quite yet but...
Thanks for the update...just hanging back trying not to get too excited...Irish only 15 min from you...but don't mind being in the pink
Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
I think CP summed it up pretty well when he said that everybody likes the model that gives them the highest amounts.
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
Oh man... wondering what the Euro does next after it’s dramatic jump on the 12Z from its previous run...
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
Fwiw so far 18z euro a tad less confluence and heights are a bit higher on approach. If continues will likely mean a more northerly track. Let’s see
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
that says Sunday through Monday so it's the whole storm I believe. Nws always err on cautious but if you carried that into my area looks like 3 to 4. If so so be it but hoping for more than a dusting and 3 to 4 is a dusting to me lol
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 01/31 Possible Winter Storm
sroc4 wrote:Fwiw so far 18z euro a tad less confluence and heights are a bit higher on approach. If continues will likely mean a more northerly track. Let’s see
Looks like a much more negative tilt to the 500 mb trough. That to me is key.
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