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February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:44 pm

Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

The trends are always valuable. But what you are seeing happen in real time is that the app follows the model runs. So, you've been ahead of the apps the whole time.

Any chance to squeak another 25-50 mi SE for little ol' SENJ here. I mean, 24-36 hours for 1 more tick?

Bill, I don't want to sound like a complainer, but I need that snow on the back end, so the kids and get out there and enjoy it. Maybe if it were to crush all day and then changeover Mon eve...???

I'm thinking it's time to roll up the shovels and sleds in the carpet and head west- There's (white) gold in them thar hills!!!

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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:48 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
Irish wrote:I know that we can't take it as a guarantee but the trend can't be ignored. TWC just upped my snowfall total to 15-25 inches!

The trends are always valuable. But what you are seeing happen in real time is that the app follows the model runs. So, you've been ahead of the apps the whole time.

Any chance to squeak another 25-50 mi SE for little ol' SENJ here. I mean, 24-36 hours for 1 more tick?

Bill, I don't want to sound like a complainer, but I need that snow on the back end, so the kids and get out there and enjoy it. Maybe if it were to crush all day and then changeover Mon eve...???

I'm thinking it's time to roll up the shovels and sleds in the carpet and head west- There's (white) gold in them thar hills!!!

Well on the Euro your part of Ocean County doesn't get much rain at all, then goes back to snow at the end. So you might have one of those sandwiches with several inches of snow, and a layer of icy snow in the middle and then a layer of fluffy snow on top. But, I do think if you drive NW, you will likely see no rain at all, so I can't say that's not a good plan. Very Happy

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:52 pm

Cp you may not have a wsw but Irish and you both have much higher twc totals than here. So I guess theres that forcefield for no snow in yo
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:52 pm

Here it is PEEPS - ALL JUICED UP AND READY TO ROLL!!

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 278087133_RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_L2NCR2_ANI(2).gif.e01cd8088df1336e154e3d785231b009

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:54 pm

Oh not that it matters but they added 1 to 3 on Tues so it's 10 to 19 now. That's a huge spread thpugh.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:58 pm

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 EtAGkyIW4AIw2C2?format=png&name=small
CAN YOU SAY BLASTED INTO NEXT WINTER!!! AND IT SITS FOR HOURS!


Last edited by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:01 pm

Ignore Kuchura

If I posted one it was a mistake

They are wrong

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Cp you may not have a wsw but Irish and you both have much higher twc totals than here. So I guess theres that forcefield for no snow in yo

Jman you have to get this numbers thing fixed.

Just checked TWC app for Yonkers, 1-3 sunday night, 5-8 monday, 3-5 monday night 1-3 Tuesday equal 10-19 inches.

I'll be down there Wednesday morning to measure for you.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:02 pm

amugs wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 EtAGkyIW4AIw2C2?format=png&name=small
gusts will easily mix down to about 50 to 55 in that strip. Maybe higher on LI. This go be Cray cray
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:03 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Cp you may not have a wsw but Irish and you both have much higher twc totals than here. So I guess theres that forcefield for no snow in yo

Jman you have to get this numbers thing fixed.

Just checked TWC app for Yonkers, 1-3 sunday night, 5-8 monday, 3-5 monday night 1-3 Tuesday equal 10-19 inches.

I'll be down there Wednesday morning to measure for you.

if you look I just corrected myself above. Did not see the update.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Ignore Kuchura

If I posted one it was a mistake

They are wrong
suurrreee I saw it I was surprised. Lol we all know that. Isn't it go be a pretty wet snow? Bad news with high winds.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:09 pm

amugs wrote:February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 EtAGkyIW4AIw2C2?format=png&name=small
CAN YOU SAY BLASTED INTO NEXT WINTER!!! AND IT SITS FOR HOURS!

Thank goodness every fall and spring I check batteries in all our flashlights...
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:11 pm

18 Z NAM Rolling

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_34

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:13 pm

Here it comes PEEPS
4AM
February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 Image.png.cb4c201a66d10f6baedaaf001d2106ed

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:14 pm

7AM
February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 Nam-218-all-ma-instant_ptype-2180800.png.7ba595b479dae4a81eed92c50e222638

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:15 pm

What i continue to notice is a lot more front end WAA snow with the ULL. That definitely is a big change from 2 days ago where very little was expected from that and now maybe 4 or 5" from that alone.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:15 pm

WAA overrunning is much stronger on this run about 4" - 6" on the ground by about 6AM

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:16 pm

Waa?
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:17 pm

NAM is about to EXPLODE THE COASTAL !!! PNA SPIKED a bit more and the COFLUENCE is pressing the ridge a tad west

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:18 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Waa?

Warm AIR Advection - warm air overrides the cold air and produces snow -ALL classic storms have this and they are here before the main storm takes over which can lead to higher snowfall amounts

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Post by MattyICE Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:18 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Waa?

Warm air advection/overrunning

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Post by rb924119 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:19 pm

Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:20 pm

COMMA HEAD MUCH??

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 4063D193-E936-430B-A4B6-ED9C0C466509.png.a024aab481c5020a5beff0358aaf720c

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Post by dsix85 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:21 pm

Definitely going to see thundersnow out of this beast.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:22 pm

THIS IS WORTH $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!

February 1st-2nd Snowstorm Part II - Page 6 500hv.conus

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:Yeah, I’m not getting enough of the changes that I need. I’ll give it until 12z suite tomorrow before I fold officially, because I do still think there’s room to come north late in the game. But, it’s seems likely I was off over aggressive with the northward correction. But I’m pretty pleased with how the rest of the evolution is turning out. I my just looks like I was just ~100 miles too far north with it.

rb, if you are wrong (and I say IF because still 24 hours to go and you rarely are wrong) this will be one time for sure I'm glad you are. lol
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