February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
+50
Zhukov1945
CDF24
SkiSeadooJoe
gambri
algae888
essexcountypete
skinsfan1177
MattyICE
phil155
Scullybutcher
Mathgod55
sroc4
lja
Taffy
docstox12
moleson
adamfitz1969
CnWestMilford76
Fededle22
SNOW MAN
Artechmetals
sabamfa
Irish
amugs
DAYBLAZER
Joe Snow
WeatherBob
dsix85
hurrysundown23
aiannone
nutleyblizzard
dkodgis
SENJsnowman
TheAresian
CPcantmeasuresnow
GreyBeard
Snownyc
rb924119
larryrock72
lglickman1
bobjohnsonforthehall
heehaw453
mwilli
mmanisca
Grselig
frank 638
jmanley32
billg315
weatherwatchermom
Frank_Wx
54 posters
Page 10 of 24
Page 10 of 24 • 1 ... 6 ... 9, 10, 11 ... 17 ... 24
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
UK MET is off its rocker, shows 7 inches for NYC
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
well g'night gonna be back here 8 am for updates.....hope nothing changes overnight
mwilli- Posts : 132
Join date : 2019-02-11
rb924119 likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
well g'night gonna be back here 8 am for updates.....hope nothing changes overnight
mwilli- Posts : 132
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2019-02-11
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
jmanley32 wrote:LOL my friend and I still say dude a lot it hasnt grown out of some of us. at least I do not say radical or narleyGrselig wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Haha of course, but it is go be a PITA to clean up, but no doubt wether its 18, 24 or 35 all i care is that im seeing a BIG snowstorm either way it's cut. or appears that way pretty much across the board, you too.Irish wrote:jmanley32 wrote:honestly, as much as I have never seen that much snow, im not sure I want that to move any closer, 30-40 inches would put yonkers to a standstill, it is super tight here, theres nowhere to put it cars including mine would be buried for at least a week if not more. it would be pure insanity.Frank_Wx wrote:
Oh come on, of course you want to see that!! You're not fooling us! You want to be buried in a blizzard, as you giggle like a school girl getting her hair and nails done like a princess for the very first time!
One word. Back when was young. DUUDEE!!!!!!!
ha. I was explaining to my daughter that it has so many different meanings. Good and bad. yeah, I don't say those words either. have not used dude for a long time, until tonight.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1407
Reputation : 140
Join date : 2013-03-04
Age : 54
Location : Wayne NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Irish wrote:rb924119 wrote:UKMET generally held serve. Southeastern edge of guidance.....sigh.
Still have big love for you and what work you put in, rb.
That was directed at the model, not my forecast haha it’s been consistently on the southeast edge of guidance until the last second this year for whatever reason. Similar to the GFS and its ensemble.
I’m not giving up on my forecast yet, especially after what I’ve seen tonight. I’m not all that far off. Look at how the December storm behaved. It was supposed to be I-95 in the bullseye and it was 125 miles to the northwest. I’m stubborn, yes, but to say that we haven’t seen northward shifts tonight overall wouldn’t be accurate. Is it likely to be enough? Probably not. But I still believe there’s room to come north. Gonna wait and see. But I greatly appreciate your sentiment
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Irish likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
rb924119 wrote:Irish wrote:rb924119 wrote:UKMET generally held serve. Southeastern edge of guidance.....sigh.
Still have big love for you and what work you put in, rb.
That was directed at the model, not my forecast haha it’s been consistently on the southeast edge of guidance until the last second this year for whatever reason. Similar to the GFS and its ensemble.
I’m not giving up on my forecast yet, especially after what I’ve seen tonight. I’m not all that far off. Look at how the December storm behaved. It was supposed to be I-95 in the bullseye and it was 125 miles to the northwest. I’m stubborn, yes, but to say that we haven’t seen northward shifts tonight overall wouldn’t be accurate. Is it likely to be enough? Probably not. But I still believe there’s room to come north. Gonna wait and see. But I greatly appreciate your sentiment
I agree rb. I'm actually not sure that you're thoughts on this are that far off at this point. The difference is the scope of the heavy snow is so large that everyone seems to be getting in on the action anyway. But in some of these runs that jackpot zone is getting awfully close to being, um, north.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
rb924119 likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Case in point. The latest GFS now gets the primary H5 circulation to Erie, Pa. If I can get into Jamestown, NY, which is only another 30-50 miles, I’m sitting pretty.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
billg315 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Irish wrote:rb924119 wrote:UKMET generally held serve. Southeastern edge of guidance.....sigh.
Still have big love for you and what work you put in, rb.
That was directed at the model, not my forecast haha it’s been consistently on the southeast edge of guidance until the last second this year for whatever reason. Similar to the GFS and its ensemble.
I’m not giving up on my forecast yet, especially after what I’ve seen tonight. I’m not all that far off. Look at how the December storm behaved. It was supposed to be I-95 in the bullseye and it was 125 miles to the northwest. I’m stubborn, yes, but to say that we haven’t seen northward shifts tonight overall wouldn’t be accurate. Is it likely to be enough? Probably not. But I still believe there’s room to come north. Gonna wait and see. But I greatly appreciate your sentiment
I agree rb. I'm actually not sure that you're thoughts on this are that far off at this point. The difference is the scope of the heavy snow is so large that everyone seems to be getting in on the action anyway. But in some of these runs that jackpot zone is getting awfully close to being, um, north.
I mean, it’s close. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen. But it’s still close enough for me hold my position right now. I’ve gotten this far, I’m not going to lie down and roll over when there’s still almost two days left in the race haha
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
That's the funny thing. It seems so close because the snow should start tomorrow evening, but in reality we're still 24-36 hours away from the main event. A lot can happen in 24-36 hours.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
rb924119 likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
I'm loving the first call snow map Frank. Wondering if you will be sticking with it or will there be a second call map tomorrow evening. I would love to see more snow maps from some of our other experts here. The numbers that the models are spewing out are incredible! It has been quite some time that 20"+ snow amounts have been possible IMBY but looking forward to it as long as people have power and heat. My freezer is stocked and have plenty of wine and beer to watch the snow fall.
Question: I saw the post of the radar of where the storm is currently. Is it where most of the models are depicting and are they getting accurate readings or are they still having issues with where and when the low transfers off the coast?
Question: I saw the post of the radar of where the storm is currently. Is it where most of the models are depicting and are they getting accurate readings or are they still having issues with where and when the low transfers off the coast?
Fededle22- Posts : 169
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-03-08
Location : West Orange, NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
DT’s final call is 15 + for NYC and northern half of NJ. 8-12 LI.
CnWestMilford76- Posts : 30
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2020-12-15
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
The current radar seems pretty in line with what the models were showing. I don't think there has been a great deal of difference in where the models now show the coastal transfer happening either. Could be more of an issue of where the storm matures off the coast at the mid and upper levels.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
I cannot say thats not def a reasonable call, i do not think many see less than 15, unless you believe the UKMET (I don't) and he gives the skies the limit from there which is kinda too easy but it also allows him to be right as long as its over 15 lolCnWestMilford76 wrote:DT’s final call is 15 + for NYC and northern half of NJ. 8-12 LI.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
CnWestMilford76 likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
billg315 wrote:The current radar seems pretty in line with what the models were showing. I don't think there has been a great deal of difference in where the models now show the coastal transfer happening either. Could be more of an issue of where the storm matures off the coast at the mid and upper levels.
It looked like it was already pretty far north, which would fall in line with what Rb was predicting. What seems to differ with the models from him is that the low is forming farther south off our coast then coming up and stalling, giving us the larger snow fall totals. Just trying to learn from everyone and figure out what is going on.
Fededle22- Posts : 169
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-03-08
Location : West Orange, NJ
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Well I think I'm out for the night. Gonna rest up for a long 48 hours starting tomorrow morning. I'll probably fire off a Final Snow map after I review the overnight and morning model runs tomorrow. Why not? lol Have a great rest of the night peeps. Keep your fingers crossed.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ
rb924119 likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
billg315 wrote:That's the funny thing. It seems so close because the snow should start tomorrow evening, but in reality we're still 24-36 hours away from the main event. A lot can happen in 24-36 hours.
Exactly.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Fededle22 wrote:billg315 wrote:The current radar seems pretty in line with what the models were showing. I don't think there has been a great deal of difference in where the models now show the coastal transfer happening either. Could be more of an issue of where the storm matures off the coast at the mid and upper levels.
It looked like it was already pretty far north, which would fall in line with what Rb was predicting. What seems to differ with the models from him is that the low is forming farther south off our coast then coming up and stalling, giving us the larger snow fall totals. Just trying to learn from everyone and figure out what is going on.
I’m really not concerned with the here and now, as that should be pretty well depicted by guidance. I’m more concerned with what is being modeled to happen between 30 and 42 hours from now at the mid- and upper-levels.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Looks like less confluence but lower heights out ahead of the trough, an a stronger primary through 18 on the EURO. Too soon to tell what happens.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
OH BABY. Noticeably less confluence at 36. Heights responding on the East Coast. Buckle up.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Overall improved trough structure too. Trying to go negative sooner.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Trough just keeps trending...stronger. My goodness
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
CnWestMilford76 likes this post
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Awesome Frank, I am here with ya.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map
Yeah it does. But the coastal plain doesn’t want that. It’s getting too deep in a bad spot....overhead.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Page 10 of 24 • 1 ... 6 ... 9, 10, 11 ... 17 ... 24
Page 10 of 24
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum