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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 12 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by Taffy Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:43 am

I haven't been able to check in the last week.
Anything going on I should know about?  
Very Happy lol!

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Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:06 am

SREFs now rain/mix all the way up to I-78. Interestinggggg. Very different results between NAM and SREFs.


Last edited by rb924119 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:07 am

My god rgem, 2 ft IMBY!! Frank good call on NNJ LHV for the jackpot!! Looks that may be the case, GFS and NAM keep me around 16 but either way you cut it I don't see this being less than a high end Godzilla for most but we MIGHT have to unleash the lightning beast hmm?!


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:11 am; edited 1 time in total
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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 12 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:08 am

So after a quick review of the 6z runs the models seem to be largely in agreement (big picture) on location of the surface low, and general snowfall amounts. Even the NAM has ditched the snow hole it was showing for some West and NW folks, particularly in PA though still doesn't bring the snow too far north into NY state).
Looks like the H5 is maybe a little SW of the area on a couple models? Heehaw, was that your read on the H5 and what, if anything do you make of that?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:10 am

rb924119 wrote:SREFs now rain/mix all the way up to I-80. Interestinggggg. Very different results between NAM and SREFs.
go away little man lol, you and your srefs can go to FL for some rain lol totally kidding, it doesnt line up with other models some do bring rain at the end but frank has said over and over he doesnt see much if at all rain coming into play.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:12 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:12 am

WSW hoisted for upton !! Other Frank check out the end!

NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-176-178-312045-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0001.210201T0500Z-210202T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0001.210201T0000Z-210202T1100Z/
Hudson-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
344 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 14 to
18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard like conditions possible Monday
and Monday evening.
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February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 12 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Post by lja Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:12 am

Snownyc wrote:
moleson wrote:
Snownyc wrote:Do this have the potential to be a classic storm if temps can stay maybe not a one day total but this could be some kids let’s say unfair 15 years old biggest storm in the nyc metro area

What language is this?
I’m trying to ask can this be the biggest storm in about 15 years in the nyc metro area.

Jan 23, 2016.....27.5”.....NYC largest snowstorm


Last edited by lja on Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:17 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:13 am

After reviewing the 6z runs I think my initial snowfall map will change less than I thought. The major change will be expanding the heavy snow zone further west and slightly re-orienting the precip zones to account for the initial over-running event and a more stout CCB, which as Frank (of course) got right on his map creates a more west to east banding except along the NJ coast where temps change the snow totals. I will bump up totals, but not to the crazy levels we're seeing on some models. I think a modest increase in my initial totals is consistent with this storm setup and I've seen the models over-do snow totals enough to be skeptical. Some people WILL jackpot and get some pretty crazy totals, but most people will get more "normal" heavy snow totals. The snow at the end of this storm will be pretty light as it drifts away so I don't think the last several hours this hangs on will add much to the totals we see from this evening through early Tuesday AM.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:18 am

billg315 wrote:After reviewing the 6z runs I think my initial snowfall map will change less than I thought. The major change will be expanding the heavy snow zone further west and slightly re-orienting the precip zones to account for the initial over-running event and a more stout CCB, which as Frank (of course) got right on his map creates a more west to east banding except along the NJ coast where temps change the snow totals. I will bump up totals, but not to the crazy levels we're seeing on some models. I think a modest increase in my initial totals is consistent with this storm setup and I've seen the models over-do snow totals enough to be skeptical. Some people WILL jackpot and get some pretty crazy totals, but most people will get more "normal" heavy snow totals. The snow at the end of this storm will be pretty light as it drifts away so I don't think the last several hours this hangs on will add much to the totals we see from this evening through early Tuesday AM.
So it will be adry snow? I heard it would be wet hence the potential for power outages, if its light that bodes well for that and shoveling. Drifts could push 4-6 ft in some of these heavier totals!!
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:20 am

The rgem continued that NW to WNW movement of the heaviest snows now as seen above to NNJ LHV and just around NYC. Originally placed in lower PA a day or so ago!!
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:22 am

rb924119 wrote:SREFs now rain/mix all the way up to I-78. Interestinggggg. Very different results between NAM and SREFs.

The NAM actually does show a fair amount of sleet/mix across much of SNJ. SREF's reflect that warm air intrusion and take it a bit further north. That is the outlier on that front right now, but I noticed. And I noticed because it actually is not at all inconsistent with this type of coastal tucked in. In fact, I'd say it would be MORE unusual if there wasn't significant mixing from I-195 south and east of 206 in South Jersey than if it remained all snow almost to the coast. This is why I'm not thinking I'm changing my map a great deal in SNJ.
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:22 am

Take a breath jman. Sounds like you are hyperventilating already. It's gonna be a long day.lol

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:24 am

jmanley32 wrote:
billg315 wrote:After reviewing the 6z runs I think my initial snowfall map will change less than I thought. The major change will be expanding the heavy snow zone further west and slightly re-orienting the precip zones to account for the initial over-running event and a more stout CCB, which as Frank (of course) got right on his map creates a more west to east banding except along the NJ coast where temps change the snow totals. I will bump up totals, but not to the crazy levels we're seeing on some models. I think a modest increase in my initial totals is consistent with this storm setup and I've seen the models over-do snow totals enough to be skeptical. Some people WILL jackpot and get some pretty crazy totals, but most people will get more "normal" heavy snow totals. The snow at the end of this storm will be pretty light as it drifts away so I don't think the last several hours this hangs on will add much to the totals we see from this evening through early Tuesday AM.
So it will be adry snow? I heard it would be wet hence the potential for power outages, if its light that bodes well for that and shoveling.  Drifts could push 4-6 ft in some of these heavier totals!!

When I say light, I mean in intensity not weight/moisture. That last few hours of snow you see on the models is likely not much more than lingering flurries/light snow. I think the accumulation is mostly said and done by daybreak Tuesday.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:24 am

GreyBeard wrote:Take a breath jman. Sounds like you are hyperventilating already. It's gonna be a long day.lol
lol, nah just love seeing the consistency in the models continue, they always have the potential to shift. so far any shifts have been in favor of at least parts of this board but like 90% or more appear to be in godzilla snows.
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:26 am

Yeah we all look good for this one, mostly. Bright red sky at sunrise this morning hopeful that is a harbinger of things to come.


Last edited by GreyBeard on Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:28 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:27 am

rb, any input on the H5 placement in some of the 6z runs? It seemed a little more west to me? Or are my eyes going after staring at models and vorticity maps for three days?
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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:29 am

Frank always has stated these tend to track a tick S and E on game day, wonder if he still feels that way here.

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Post by dkodgis Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:30 am

I believe the Banner is incorrect? Should it not say in part "FrankRoidzilla over parts of Long Island" instead of blizzard conditions? Truth be told now...
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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:32 am

Sroc and Ainnone- wake up boys! I still think we get hammered here, 12-18 seems legit.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:33 am

dkodgis wrote:I believe the Banner is incorrect? Should it not say in part "FrankRoidzilla over parts of Long Island" instead of blizzard conditions? Truth be told now...
models arent showing those totals for LI atm, everything has shifted to NNJ NYC LHV, but LI is def in godzilla. Roidzilla is 24+ and Frankzilla unlikely but i guess not impossible 36+. AND I think inside Franks circled area on his map will be blizzard warnings, but that doesnt change snow amounts that all has to do with the wind and whiteout conditions as you probably know, its gonna be one heck of a storm, i was gonna do a full grocery shop today (just regular scheduled) but with the winds progged I would hate to lose all that food so prolly gonna go with mainly non perisables and try to eat our fish and shrimp we have tonight, not sure what to do with my 15 chicken filets lol
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:36 am

I still can’t believe Amy freeze still has wide area of 6 to 12 of snow and 12 to 18 just west of the city when the hell is she going to update there map

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Post by TheAresian Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:37 am

What time does the 6z Euro run and does anybody have the maps?

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:39 am

GreyBeard wrote:Yeah we all look good for this one, mostly. Bright red sky at sunrise this morning hopeful that is a harbinger of things to come.

"Red sky at morning, sailor take warning"! Amazing how these old timey words of wisdom always prove out!
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:42 am

frank 638 wrote:I still can’t believe Amy freeze still has wide area of 6 to 12 of snow and 12 to 18 just west of the city when the hell is she going to update there map


Frank.they are always late to the party.

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:42 am

Upton disco mentions blizzard warning upgrade possible for NYC LI and SECT
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Post by lglickman1 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:43 am

Aside from south jersey coast and parts of long Island, is there any concern for mixing?

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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:43 am

We are only in a WSW here in Manorville, NY. Silly. 3-11 inches, quite the range by TWC.

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