February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

While I'm still cheering for you guys, I'd be less than honest if I said I wasn't also getting a little envious.

Frank_Wx wrote:This might be the greatest NAM run I’ve ever seen

looks like it, 2 ft incoming i think for many.

NAM is probably underdoing the south extent of the CCB right now too. I think Euro has much better handle on the precip scope now.

Not seeing anything on this NAM that changes my thoughts a whole lot. The 6z NAM had started to come around to the other models on a more stout CCB pushing higher snow totals west from it's runs yesterday. That holds here. The mixing is a problem in SNJ (sorry guys) but doesn't appear to affect the bulk of the forum area.

rb924119 wrote:If you’re north of I-78 here, it’s been nice knowing ya. See you in Spring for the thaw lol

Ray, when you mention north of I-78 is LI included in that. Hard to measure since we are Far East of that

rb, I guess my area and your parents location are going to be hit pretty hard. At least that's what it looks like from what I'm seeing. Thoughts ?

TheAresian wrote:While I'm still cheering for you guys, I'd be less than honest if I said I wasn't also getting a little envious.

I feel your pain hahaha trends aren’t done with IMO, though.

This is the warmest 850s get so far on the NAM

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:If you’re north of I-78 here, it’s been nice knowing ya. See you in Spring for the thaw lol

Ray, when you mention north of I-78 is LI included in that. Hard to measure since we are Far East of that

Long Island is doing just fine on this run Alex. lol.

heehaw453 wrote:NAM is probably underdoing the south extent of the CCB right now too.  I think Euro has much better handle on the precip scope now.

Tend to agree with that

rb924119 wrote:

TheAresian wrote:While I'm still cheering for you guys, I'd be less than honest if I said I wasn't also getting a little envious.

I feel your pain hahaha trends aren’t done with IMO, though.

I'm 70 miles west of Binghamton. That would have to be one heck of a trend.

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:If you’re north of I-78 here, it’s been nice knowing ya. See you in Spring for the thaw lol

Ray, when you mention north of I-78 is LI included in that. Hard to measure since we are Far East of that

If you’re closer to NYC, yes. Further east, no.

billg315 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:If you’re north of I-78 here, it’s been nice knowing ya. See you in Spring for the thaw lol

Ray, when you mention north of I-78 is LI included in that. Hard to measure since we are Far East of that

Long Island is doing just fine on this run Alex. lol.

South shore and east might get mixing toward the end, but again, as Frank has put it, after the damage is done.

MOG...look at that pink snoe over NYC, no thats not ice thats insane snow rates. 40 dbz to be precise WOW

Yep. Good run and I think NAM is starting to get closer to reality with this storm.

This band hits at height of rush hour, if people are out people may get stranded, its going to be a mess, i hope DOT is prepared.

easily go be two ft for northern half of NJ NYC area and LHV 18 at very least, wow

700mb low Monday afternoon on the 12z NAM. This shows the best lift setting up across NEPA, HV and NW NJ. For the coast, ideally we would want this low OFFSHORE. But it seems we have been seeing a more west trend since yesterday afternoon on the models. Hopefully this is the extent of the west trend.

lglickman1 wrote:So what are the overall thoughts about mixing issues into nyc?  Any significant merit to that to impact overall accumulations?

nam doesnt show any mixing in NYC yet, im not sure it will. if it does itll be after the main event. I am growing confident in seeing 18+ IMO, not just me, many on the board.

I think this is going to be a great storm. One folks will remember.

wow by 7/8pm monday most see 18-24....on 3km nam.

lglickman1 wrote:So what are the overall thoughts about mixing issues into nyc?  Any significant merit to that to impact overall accumulations?

If the mid level lows track over NJ, the best frontogenesis and CCB will be in the areas I mentioned prior. That said, the coast would already have over a foot of snow on the ground before the dry slot moves in. Technically this would make everyone on the board happy. The coast performs from the overrunning and trowal, or pivot point, while N&W gets there CCB.

Frank_Wx wrote:

lglickman1 wrote:So what are the overall thoughts about mixing issues into nyc?  Any significant merit to that to impact overall accumulations?

If the mid level lows track over NJ, the best frontogenesis and CCB will be in the areas I mentioned prior. That said, the coast would already have over a foot of snow on the ground before the dry slot moves in. Technically this would make everyone on the board happy.  The coast performs from the overrunning and trowal, or pivot point, while N&W gets there CCB.

so you dont think the area nyc and just north sees the ccb anymore? NAM shows it hitting the area good.

Frank_Wx wrote:700mb low Monday afternoon on the 12z NAM. This shows the best lift setting up across NEPA, HV and NW NJ. For the coast, ideally we would want this low OFFSHORE. But it seems we have been seeing a more west trend since yesterday afternoon on the models. Hopefully this is the extent of the west trend.

Another northward shift with the snowfall axis. I need 50 miles. The changes I’m seeing aloft make me think we still adjust west-northwest from here overall. Interesting battle between us here Frank, and I wouldn’t want it any other way hahaha

This is how much precip has fallen before the H7 low is over NYC Metro (aka before dry slotting). It’s still a historic storm. Imagine if there wasn’t a dry slot, though? This would move into Frankzilla territory