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February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

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nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Empty Re: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:01 pm

The NAM is close to unleashing King Kong on us. I guess Kong is > than Godzilla

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:02 pm

Current Radar nice banding flowing northward

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 2-1-2112

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Post by dsix85 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:04 pm

Still no snow here in Manorville

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:10am tomorrow per 00z NAM

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Image.png.8b8aa08292608c1ed944f2aab2c405af

Here is 1pm

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Nam-218-all-ma-refc_ptype-2202400.png.f25781f0866eb2f7234606f17573c660

4pm

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Image-thumb-png-b15f516116189c8dec09c52c79a907b3

7pm

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Image.png.075b40a53577db3e9ebe4773a068482c
thats insane it doesnt look like its moving at all from 10-7 holy crapola. What are the rates in that?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:06 pm

The NAM does bring a dry slot north into Long Island by 8pm or so. The Jersey shore changes to rain around mid-afternoon as well. However, it shows lots of snow has fallen by then. This is because the 700mb low is W-SE of them. However, NYC and points west especially NNJ are obliterated


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:08 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:07 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM does bring a dry slot north into Long Island by 7pm or so. The Jersey shore changes to rain around mid-afternoon as well. However, it shows lots of snow has fallen by then
the dry slot will it make it up to by me in the Bronx

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:08 pm

frank 638 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The NAM does bring a dry slot north into Long Island by 7pm or so. The Jersey shore changes to rain around mid-afternoon as well. However, it shows lots of snow has fallen by then
the dry slot will it make it up to by me in the Bronx
we are still in snow late into tues night : )
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:09 pm

dsix85 wrote:Still no snow here in Manorville

Almost there give it 1/2 hour or so
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:09 pm

Just was out back with the dogs..we have 3 inches so far..really fine snow winds 6 mph temp is 23*
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:09 pm

One trend tonight:

Models want it to keep snowing into Tuesday afternoon, especially over EPA and NJ. That will be higher ratio snow.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:10 pm

Its coming down pretty good now, the 00z nam is gonna be crazy it has wrap around snow.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 FEEF3-E14-2-AAC-4683-A2-B9-00-B860-E3-D955-thumb-png-31d2057d24beb36e285984cad90332b3

sorry to ask silly questions. is that wind???


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:11 pm

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 D578B6DB-1504-4D5C-B6FD-3EBD3D7E7DE9.png.d2a1f25fade29d3716780ace044b82ac

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:12 pm

Frank did you see the 3km nam, it develops a second LP well to the east that goes due north and disappears, wth was that?
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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:13 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 FEEF3-E14-2-AAC-4683-A2-B9-00-B860-E3-D955-thumb-png-31d2057d24beb36e285984cad90332b3

sorry to ask silly questions..what does this map represent..tia

Imagine if you will a snowblower throwing snow at you, kinda like that
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:15 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 FEEF3-E14-2-AAC-4683-A2-B9-00-B860-E3-D955-thumb-png-31d2057d24beb36e285984cad90332b3

sorry to ask silly questions..what does this map represent..tia
Wind speed at the mid level of the atmosphere. It shows a jet of air there that can indicate where heaviest precipitation bands may form.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 D578B6DB-1504-4D5C-B6FD-3EBD3D7E7DE9.png.d2a1f25fade29d3716780ace044b82ac
frank this isnt even near done, its still snowing moderately past 15z tuesday!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:18 pm

4pm TUESDAY 00z NAM

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_39

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:18 pm

3km still snowing...wow and franks posted nam snow map doesnt include this.

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Nam3km25
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:20 pm

FRANK TOTAL INSANITY ON NAM!!!
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:20 pm

Think I've got to retire early tonight.  Tomorrow hopefully is fruitful.

Light to moderate snow about 5" OTG.  19.7/18

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Snowso10

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Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:21 pm

Nam still snowing 48 hours from now
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:23 pm

nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Captur13

This northern s/w phases into the trough around 7am Tuesday morning and reenergizes the snow bands over our area, per 00z NAM. It ends up snowing into early Wednesday morning.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Captur13

This northern s/w phases into the trough around 7am Tuesday morning and reenergizes the snow bands over our area, per 00z NAM. It ends up snowing into early Wednesday morning.
Do you think thats even plausible? I mean thjat would change everything.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Captur13

This northern s/w phases into the trough around 7am Tuesday morning and reenergizes the snow bands over our area, per 00z NAM. It ends up snowing into early Wednesday morning.

Well now this is just getting silly. Lol. I didn’t stock enough beer to get through Wednesday.
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Captur13

This northern s/w phases into the trough around 7am Tuesday morning and reenergizes the snow bands over our area, per 00z NAM. It ends up snowing into early Wednesday morning.

Not that I buy the NAM but this whole setup impressed the hell out of me for days. In particular the depth of trough and the inability for it to move. Who the heck knows what NS vortex spins down that perpendicular cliff. It's interesting run by the NAM.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:nywx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 11 Captur13

This northern s/w phases into the trough around 7am Tuesday morning and reenergizes the snow bands over our area, per 00z NAM. It ends up snowing into early Wednesday morning.
Do you think thats even plausible? I mean thjat would change everything.

Yea, I do. Maybe not into Wednesday morning but I think there's enough upper level energy to be had that we snow through Tuesday evening

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