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Long Range Discussions 21.0

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:39 am

@TheAresian wrote:Major ice storm is right.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Ice_st10

The above as depicted is mostly from the next Thursday storm (18th) on the 12Z GFS. Right now it has the main low cutting through PA and NYS and everyone, even theAresian eventually changes to rain. Still 7 days for that one so hopefully it's nothing like what is depicted now 7 days from now.
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Post by TheAresian Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:45 am

Hopefully, but being the worrying sort I don't care for the idea of a wonderful snowstorm being followed up by the kinda ice that could ruin things for days. I'm only looking at .5", but some of you face the possibility of an inch of ice. Yikes.

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:00 pm

The models are really all over the place with the next few systems.  It looks like the trying to develop another wave on Monday Between the Sunday morning and Tuesday systems.  One thing that seems certain is that the lower levels are going to be cold so look for some type of wintry precipitation
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:09 pm

@TheAresian wrote:Hopefully, but being the worrying sort I don't care for the idea of a wonderful snowstorm being followed up by the kinda ice that could ruin things for days. I'm only looking at .5", but some of you face the possibility of an inch of ice. Yikes.
trust me 0.5 frz can do a lot tree damage, 2 yrs ago as stated earlier we have about 0.25 and a few large trees came down and many smaller were stripped of all their branches. 0.25+ would criple the entire area and up to 1 inch would be insane and terrible.
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:15 pm

TWC is already popping up 6-12 for next Tuesday's storm and a posting saying watching for the potential of a winter storm. Like mentioned earlier, every time that's happened this winter, we've gotten popped.

I'm intrigued...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:25 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@TheAresian wrote:Hopefully, but being the worrying sort I don't care for the idea of a wonderful snowstorm being followed up by the kinda ice that could ruin things for days. I'm only looking at .5", but some of you face the possibility of an inch of ice. Yikes.
trust me 0.5 frz can do a lot tree damage, 2 yrs ago as stated earlier we have about 0.25 and a few large trees came down and many smaller were stripped of all their branches. 0.25+ would criple the entire area and up to 1 inch would be insane and terrible.

It really depends on the surface temperatures at the time the freezing rain is falling. Freezing rain at 30-32 degrees is not that big of an issue, the lower into the 20's you get the bigger an issue it becomes. I've seen freezing rain fall with surface temps in the teens, that's the recipe for disaster but I don't think we see that extreme on Tuesday.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:33 pm

@Irish wrote:TWC is already popping up 6-12 for next Tuesday's storm and a posting saying watching for the potential of a winter storm. Like mentioned earlier, every time that's happened this winter, we've gotten popped.

I'm intrigued...

Be careful, TWC app can't distinguish amounts between snow, sleet and freezing rain. If it sees close to an inch of frozen precip on whatever model it's interpreting on the app, that becomes 6-12 inches of snow.

Mid level temps could be an issue on Tuesday. You could be looking at 4 inches of snow, followed by an inch of sleet, and a 1/4 inch of freezing rain. That scenario would also be 1 inch of liquid frozen but would not be interpreted that way on the app.
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:43 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Irish wrote:TWC is already popping up 6-12 for next Tuesday's storm and a posting saying watching for the potential of a winter storm. Like mentioned earlier, every time that's happened this winter, we've gotten popped.

I'm intrigued...

Be careful, TWC app can't distinguish amounts between snow, sleet and freezing rain. If it sees close to an inch of frozen precip on whatever model it's interpreting on the app, that becomes 6-12 inches of snow.

Mid level temps could be an issue on Tuesday. You could be looking at 4 inches of snow, followed by an inch of sleet, and a 1/4 inch of freezing rain. That scenario would also be 1 inch of liquid frozen but would not be interpreted that way on the app.

Right, I'm not banking anything I see for a storm that's almost a week away. The only thing I was saying is that there's something on tap. We have a bunch of time to see what it is...

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:00 pm

Yep. If I were a betting man I'd say NEPA, NW NJ and LHV may stay mostly snow from this. Below route 80 and points east of those areas mixing probably comes into play. The question will be is there enough front end thump to get those in the mixing zone significant snow or not? Again, purely speculation, but based on similar setups that'd be my thoughts now. I don't see this as a clean snowstorm ATTM.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:27 pm

12Z GFS for Tuesdays storm. Some of this, especially from NYC south and east, is sleet and freezing ran so the totals are deceptive. It's still a long way off for details like that.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Gfs_as24

12Z CMC, much less snow.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Gem_as15


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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:28 pm

Pretty close on the Euro actually. Areas like i mentioned before do very well. Keep this mid-level energy about 75 miles SE of this area and big snows for a lot of folks on the board. This is far from set in stone at this range.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:33 pm

The Atlantic ridge is a little strong for my liking though.  MJO phase 7 may have something to do with it.

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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:36 pm

12z Euro holding fast to its idea of the Tuesday system quickly transitioning from snow to a major ice and sleet event across much of the area with the more significant snowfall well north and west. The GFS is a little snowier, but also has a significant period of frz and sleet. If they are on to something than this storm may not bring the snow totals everyone is looking for, but could be extremely disruptive. If anyone remembers the ice storms of 1994, get a half inch or more of freezing rain and watch everything in the region grind to an immediate halt.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:38 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:12Z GFS for Tuesdays storm. Some of this, especially from NYC south and east, is sleet and freezing ran so the totals are deceptive. It's still a long way off for details like that.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Gfs_as24

12Z CMC, much less snow.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Gem_as15

CMC is a much better transfer latitude wise, but weak system and late bloomer. It's all about where the transfer occurs. If the primary gets to Pittsburgh and is still dominant, then no bueno.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:43 pm

@billg315 wrote:12z Euro holding fast to its idea of the Tuesday system quickly transitioning from snow to a major ice and sleet event across much of the area with the more significant snowfall well north and west. The GFS is a little snowier, but also has a significant period of frz and sleet. If they are on to something than this storm may not bring the snow totals everyone is looking for, but could be extremely disruptive. If anyone remembers the ice storms of 1994, get a half inch or more of freezing rain and watch everything in the region grind to an immediate halt.

I'm taking the under on ZR and think if anything sleet will be the predominant frozen if the low transfer doesn't occur before hitting WV.  The high probably will provide enough cold air to support sleet.  At least I sure hope so.  I can live with an inch of sleet, but don't want an inch of ZR as that'd be devastating.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:59 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:12z Euro holding fast to its idea of the Tuesday system quickly transitioning from snow to a major ice and sleet event across much of the area with the more significant snowfall well north and west. The GFS is a little snowier, but also has a significant period of frz and sleet. If they are on to something than this storm may not bring the snow totals everyone is looking for, but could be extremely disruptive. If anyone remembers the ice storms of 1994, get a half inch or more of freezing rain and watch everything in the region grind to an immediate halt.

I'm taking the under on ZR and think if anything sleet will be the predominant frozen if the low transfer doesn't occur before hitting WV.  The high probably will provide enough cold air to support sleet.  At least I sure hope so.  I can live with an inch of sleet, but don't want an inch of ZR as that'd be devastating.
Hey its 2021, no one said ending 2020 would mean 2021 would be any better, lets hope not a inch of sleet is no biggie, a a inch of ice on the other hand...0.25 is a big enough issue already. i can;t imagine 1.0 and no i do not recall 1994 but i am going to look it up now.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:00 pm

Okay that storm did not effect us it was in the south unless im looking at the wrong one.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:12 pm

Franks' point on the banana high is very good.  This would be one hell of a snowstorm as shown the 18Z GFS.  You have such tremendous frontogenesis with extreme low level cold and enough mid-level cold for snow.  Rates would be insane for those that keep the mid-level cold.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Okay that storm did not effect us it was in the south unless I'm looking at the wrong one.
JMAN MLK storm driving rainstorm to driving ice and then snowstorm - crippled us for a full week.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:22 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Franks' point on the banana high is very good.  This would be one hell of a snowstorm as shown the 18Z GFS.  You have such tremendous frontogenesis with extreme low level cold and enough mid-level cold for snow.  Rates would be insane for those that keep the mid-level cold.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Gfs21

This is what we want a much further SE storm to keep the mid levels at 850 and 700 warming. Need this to trend this way and hold for 4 more days!!

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:36 pm

@amugs wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Franks' point on the banana high is very good.  This would be one hell of a snowstorm as shown the 18Z GFS.  You have such tremendous frontogenesis with extreme low level cold and enough mid-level cold for snow.  Rates would be insane for those that keep the mid-level cold.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Gfs21

This is what we want a much further SE storm to keep the mid levels at 850 and 700 warming. Need this to trend this way and hold for 4 more days!!

Yeah. The Atlantic ridge gives me concern for a mid-level coastal hug. I don't want this to be some once in a decade ice event here. The low level cold is probably going to be rather extreme. That is a dangerous combination for severe icing if warm nose gets below the 875 mb level.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:15 pm

FWIW.  The 18Z GEFS seems more coastal than cutter for the Monday night/Tuesday deal.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Gefs11

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:50 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Pretty close on the Euro actually.  Areas like i mentioned before do very well.  Keep this mid-level energy about 75 miles SE of this area and big snows for a lot of folks on the board.  This is far from set in stone at this range.

Long Range Discussions 21.0 - Page 7 Euro16

Hmmmmmm

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Post by phil155 Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:01 pm

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 11, 2021 7:07 pm

Nice push of cold to beat back that SE ridge a bit - every little bit helps and keep us colder and the mid levels to boot

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