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October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:42 pm

September ended at an impressive -2 to -2.5 temp. departure for most people. Here is the general map below:

October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread MonthTDeptUS

October will most definitely not end the same way. We are looking at a warm start to the month, with a +NAO/+AO and transient Pacific pattern (+PNA at times but mainly -PNA).

October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Gfs_z500_sig_noram_5

The 2nd half of October will probably be colder, but I'm not sure if it will be enough to cancel out the above normal temp. departures from the 1st half.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:26 am; edited 4 times in total
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:32 pm

I always preferred a warmer September and a cooler October, oh well, can't change the weather. How long is the warm pattern supposed to be here for? A lot of leaf changing here going on. I see parts of the country next Monday already trending cooler, hopefully it will make its way to us during the later week.
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:54 pm

I hit 80 today at 2PM ! Hillsdale, NJ

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:32 pm

Yea and if we hit 80 today, we most likely will approach mid-80's by tomorrow or Thursday. Impressive, I was not expecting it again. Like I mentioned up top, 1st half of October looks really warm with numerous cutoff lows helping to raise heights along the east
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:23 pm

Hmm, I would kind of be shocked, if we went 14-15 days in the same pattern. Some cooler changes look like they come from anywhere mid-week next week to late next week. Areas like chicago will see temps such as 86 Friday and 59 next Tuesday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:25 pm

HectorO wrote:Hmm, I would kind of be shocked, if we went 14-15 days in the same pattern. Some cooler changes look like they come from anywhere mid-week next week to late next week. Areas like chicago will see temps such as 86 Friday and 59 next Tuesday.
The EURO has a more impressive warm up next week than this week
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:36 pm

Interesting, I'm going to stick with an Oct 9th/10 period where we'll see the change happening again and probably for good with no more 80s. We'll see how much the EURO changes over the next couple of days.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:59 pm

The air mass is so dry and crisp that we will still get into the 50's tonight after getting into the 80's earlier today. Pretty cool
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:02 am

This weather stinks. I want averages not 80's
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Post by docstox12 Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:23 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:This weather stinks. I want averages not 80's
Ah, but Frank, considering the snowstorm two years ago and Sandy last year in October, I welcome this tranquil mild weather.Statistically, we were due for a mild, dry, calm October after the last two years of mayhem

And, you must remember that 80's are possible from October through the first week of November around these parts!
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Post by mako460 Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:54 pm

We need some sort of rain. The plants are drying up big time. They need some moisture to prepare them for winter.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:40 pm

Some rain is in sight this weekend, just do not know how much yet!

In other news, the stinkin' government shutdown has closed valuable NOAA links Sad
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:53 pm

Good for the rain from this trop storm/hurr that will hit the fla to Miss coast and boohoo on our frickin' gov't - they all suck down there in DC!! Oh, the working class is temp laid off while the politicians are still pulling a check - disgusting! Sorry I got a bit political.

Bring on the much, much needed rain.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:21 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Some rain is in sight this weekend, just do not know how much yet!

In other news, the stinkin' government shutdown has closed valuable NOAA links Sad
Yep, I saw that concerning NOOA today.Cutback casualty.
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Post by Quietace Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:55 pm

Wow. Lol. Good for them.

October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Hires_10
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:04 pm

That will not be accurate. Climatology this time of year plays a factor. And, the NAM sucks. So there's that. Lol
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Post by Quietace Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:14 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:That will not be accurate. Climatology this time of year plays a factor. And, the NAM sucks. So there's that. Lol
Sums up my life pretty well
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Pix10
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:39 pm

AHAHAHAHA
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Post by nofoboater Fri Oct 04, 2013 6:26 am

Not sure if there is a thread for this but nearly the entire state of Wyoming is under some sort of winter storm warning and or snow advisory.


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:58 pm

Yea it is nuts. Places will see almost 2 feet of snow and the trees still have green leaves on them. Not good.
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Post by HectorO Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:04 pm

As I mentioned a few days ago. You can kiss the old predictions for next week goodbye. Mid to late next week the temps look to be going back to normal. Today is quite toasty out. A few days ago Friday wasn't predicted to be this hot.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:46 pm

HectorO wrote:As I mentioned a few days ago. You can kiss the old predictions for next week goodbye. Mid to late next week the temps look to be going back to normal.  Today is quite toasty out. A few days ago Friday wasn't predicted to be this hot.
Idk, I'm not seeing it. Besides the day of the rain on Monday and leftover clouds on Tuesday, it still looks like a pretty above normal week. Especially by next weekend
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Post by HectorO Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:05 pm

Hmmm.... I guess we'll continue to monitor it. For right now, Tuesday and Wednesday for me are 68 and 46 in the morning. Sleep Going to sleep nice and early tonight, such a long day. Have a good weekend everyone.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:40 am

It looks as if the 0z Euro wants to throw us a curveball for late next week. After the cold front sweeps through early in the week it tries to leave a piece of energy off the SE coast that develops to a coastal LP and runs up the coast close to the BM bringing heavy rain to coastal areas.  The CMC tries to leave some energy behind as well but moves it NE OTS without affecting the area, and the GFS is similar as the CMC with even less energy left behind and all of it being swept OTS.  This is the first time I am seeing this soln in the Euro so please take it with a grain of salt.  PLENTY of time for things to evolve and change.  In another day or so we will see just how and where TS Karen's energy interacts with the base of the trough associated with the cold front for early this upcoming week to determine IF there are going to be any concerns with later next week.  In addition we need to see how the models handle the ridging that builds back in to our north almost immediately following the frontal passage. If it builds in fast enough and strong enough it will effectively block what last nights euro is trying to show and keep everything OTS. The way the pattern has been my initial guesses would be that last nights Euro is an anomaly. For the moment something worth following.
Euro:
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_13
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_21
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_25
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_25

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:17 am

That's interesting.

It appears the cold from coming from our west is allowing heights to take an almost perfect orientation for the remnants of Karen to come up the coast and bring moderate rainfall in our area Monday into Tuesday. 1-2 inches of rain is still on track to fall, however, if the EURO model has its way, things could get a little bit more interesting in terms of additional rainfall. It's solution of holding back energy could be a typical bias of the EURO though, so not sure I buy into it just yet.
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