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Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:07 am

Received 2” thus far. Snowing moderately 25F.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:08 am

Fatter flakes now. Stacking up nicely

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:09 am

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:MOTHER OF SWEET MERCY!!!!!!!
nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 Inxr1Kphla_h

I would assume those higher returns down south is sleet.

nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 Sleet10



I think this is an accurate depiction of the present snow/sleet battle zone.

Quotes from my 5 year old son in the past 3 minutes:

"Look! It started snowing!"
"It's getting thicker!"
"The ground is covered" Mostly with sleet, but...

I'd describe this as a mostly-snow mix. So in the past hour, we've gone from straight sleet, to mostly sleet with some mix, to a sleet-heavy mix and now to a snow heavy mix.

I was hoping for a glorious romp. Instead, I got me a Jersey Shore slugfest. Right now, I see moderate accumulating snow fall and hear moderate persistent rat-a-tat-ing on the trees.  

Oh Momma, you toying with a SENJ like an orca tossing a seal about!

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:12 am

docstox12 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:No joke that there is a sharp cutoff to the northern part of this, the LHV is mainly snowless (sorry CP and doc, hopefully it fills in) and the north counties of CT aren't seeing snow but the southern counties are.
Your right j man.Had a period of moderate snow then it stopped, and back to light.This storm seems to be moving more east than north.Anyhoo, got about an inch OTG.
prolly close to the same here maybe a bit more i guess the rdar isn't showing the northern extent as well as it could be. Went back to a very fine light snow but heavy returns are headed in.
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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:13 am

kalleg wrote:
New Hope update--serious sleet, started about 20 minutes ago. Holding at 25*

Hanging tough with heavy snow here, but I can tell from that Dual Pol radar I posted, and your report that the sleet line is just on my southern doorstep. For now, still in the snow.
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:16 am

Let's take a minute to tell the GFS "It's okay, you can try again next storm"

Many locations are at or nearly doubled this output from the GFS so far
nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 Sn10_a31
nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 Sn10_a32
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:17 am

About 6000 feet there is some warm air in those intense bands. I have pixie dust coming down with a few sleet pellets. When you have intense WAA these warm pockets of air are part of the package. However, it's going to battle between the SN/IP as the column goes back and forth.

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:17 am

Back to moderate snow.No worries about sleet coming here, cold air locked in tight.Just need the heavy stuff to nudge north a bit. 22 degrees.
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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:19 am

heehaw453 wrote:About 6000 feet there is some warm air in those intense bands.  I have pixie dust coming down with a few sleet pellets.  When you have intense WAA these warm pockets of air are part of the package.  However, it's going to battle between the SN/IP as the column goes back and forth.  

You just described my current situation perfectly. Hearing the first pitter patters of sleet amidst a heavy, but fine, snow.
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:21 am

Having read some of the recent posts, I see that sleet line was a lot more prevalent than I thought. I had no idea it was that far inland. I'm already back to sleet-heavy mix. Never quite got to full on snow. Still, gonna have an measured inch of sleet and snow soon.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:21 am

billg315 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:About 6000 feet there is some warm air in those intense bands.  I have pixie dust coming down with a few sleet pellets.  When you have intense WAA these warm pockets of air are part of the package.  However, it's going to battle between the SN/IP as the column goes back and forth.  

You just described my current situation perfectly. Hearing the first pitter patters of sleet amidst a heavy, but fine, snow.

Me too - just a few seconds ago then stopped...hopefully stays that way
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:21 am

I think we have at least 3 inches now they are plowing, and usually they do not plow anything below that, ill go out and measure shortly.
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Post by hurrysundown23 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:23 am

Sayreville, NJ dumped on heavy snow at leat 1+ in an hournywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 20210210

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:27 am

billg315 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:About 6000 feet there is some warm air in those intense bands.  I have pixie dust coming down with a few sleet pellets.  When you have intense WAA these warm pockets of air are part of the package.  However, it's going to battle between the SN/IP as the column goes back and forth.  

You just described my current situation perfectly. Hearing the first pitter patters of sleet amidst a heavy, but fine, snow.

Those bands will carry sleet past route 80. I have little doubt, but it'll be transient kind of thing.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:28 am

INCOMING!!

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif
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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:29 am

Yea got all snow falling now, moderate rate nickel-quarter sized flakes!
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:30 am


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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:35 am

Back to snow heavy mix.

nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 Cbbcca10

Almost an inch on the stairs means about 1.5-2” on the grass. Decent as it is, but I think that all indications are that the real warm nose is fast approaching...better than it was before though! But I think the kids are getting geared up and heading out!!

nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 038c8b10

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:35 am

Just shoveled. Fine powdery snow. 2 1/4" so far.
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Post by phil155 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:37 am

hearing some sleet pinging off my windows here in Edison so I have a mix of snow and sleet

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:38 am

Big flakes snow just picked up big time, going out to measure. Assuming it will be similar to Al.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:43 am

Just measured 4.5". Snow/Sleet mix occurring.

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Post by Fededle22 Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:48 am

jmanley32 wrote:INCOMING!!

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Doesn't look like those lines of heavy snow are going to make it far enough North to impact my area. But there is always hope!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:49 am

pouring snow and sleet at the same time..we are currently at 4 1/2 inches right now a battle is going on for the last 15 min... one minute looks like a blizzard and the next is pouring sleet...crazy...not sure how to explain it. current temps 26*
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:51 am

3.25" just measured - 1.5" in the last hour
Heavy snow now

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:52 am

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0Q-1-24#
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:53 am

aiannone wrote:Let's take a minute to tell the GFS "It's okay, you can try again next storm"

Many locations are at or nearly doubled this output from the GFS so far
nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 Sn10_a31
nywx - Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast - Page 11 Sn10_a32

We are getting hammered by me! The snowflakes falling are like snowballs, lol. What you posted Alex is exactly why I thought Frank would adjust his totals, we easily have a half a foot now. Heavy snow with some sleet mixed in. So beautiful!!
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