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2021 Tropical Season

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:42 am

SoulSingMG wrote:Hurricane Hunter’s words as of this morning…

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 22 Cb4fb810
I said last night watch him break apart and end up b a non event just rainy day.
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Post by billg315 Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:45 am

rb, speak my name and I appear. Lol. Have had a bit of a hectic week (busy at work, had a piece of skin shaved off my back for testing - no worries here, doctor says likely nothing) so haven’t been on this as much as usual (and as people on here may know I have an anti-tropical bias anyway, lol) but I have been following along when I can.
My quick thoughts:
I’m not thinking the disorganization at the moment is a huge deal, as it is just now heading into the area where I think intensification/reorganization is most likely. However it does tell me there is a cap on how strong this can get before landfall. I think a weak Cat 1 is likely.
I think the Euro/GFS are too far east, but they’re not the best models to look at for this. Meanwhile the NAM and HRRR are similar and probably the better guides atm. My guess is this makes landfall in central LI and then moves into the HV region before sweeping away to NE. I think it ends up being more a rain event but central and eastern LI get some surge (especially with full moon) and wind damage.
Finally: Two weeks to college football and Pumpkin spice. :-)
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:56 am

HH finding winds over 80 kts
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Post by sroc4 Sat Aug 21, 2021 9:57 am

rb924119 wrote:In sum, I still like my cone of 70-80% confidence from yesterday haha at least as of now.

Great write up. I’ll interject however that keep in mind that while the ULL is capturing Henri, the LW trough is grabbing hold of the ULL. Both have been independent of the mean flow. Once the LW Trough is capturing the ULL the entire structure begins momentum following the mean LW flow. This is kind of what I was trying to say yesterday. You can’t say the ULL will affect Henri without saying the LWT will affect the the entire complex. It’s like saying Jman is walking by you Ray and you reach out and grab his T Shirt as he does. While you do that I’m off to your Left moving in a SW to NW direction and grab your t shirt. I will affect your motion as your affected Jmans.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:08 am

Looks like 12z nam caved way east…
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:14 am

I just don't see how he is going to have enough time to evolve into something that resembles a TS or cane. He is just way too disorganized and this is far longer than expected for him to not have intensified at all.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:17 am

Zhukov1945 wrote:Looks like 12z nam caved way east…
dunno if it call it caving but man what is the NAM doing? Scraping along NJ to now back to RI and cape where the dropped the advisories. Jeeze this storm is get annoying.
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Post by Zhukov1945 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:20 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Zhukov1945 wrote:Looks like 12z nam caved way east…
dunno if it call it caving but man what is the NAM doing? Scraping along NJ to now back to RI and cape where the dropped the advisories. Jeeze this storm is get annoying.

Worth noting that the NAM and HRRR still bring a ton of rain into NJ even with a more easterly track.  HRRR still wants to do the West hook, intriguingly.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 22 Hrrr_410
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Post by billg315 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:38 am

NAM was likely an “over-correction.” Had to move east from a too far west track. Probably wobbles slightly west on its next run. But, who knows? Lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:46 am

Hmon makes landfall in RI non event here if that played out. Even CT wouldn't see bad winds. Right now they are preparing for a potential loss of 60% power statewide. How u figure that I have no clue.
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Post by billg315 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:47 am

I should add, it’s not a law but remember too, most tropical systems around here end up being “Scott Norwoods”, that is to say missing us wide right. So can never completely discount it when models move that way.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:48 am

We have hurricane Henri and cone shifted east quite a bit
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Post by jimv45 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:51 am

There is a chance the us in the Hudson Valley see more out of this then say Around NY City
south.

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Post by amugs Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:52 am

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

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Post by amugs Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:52 am

jimv45 wrote:There is a chance the us in the Hudson Valley see more out of this then say Around NY City
south.

Yes you look to get deluge of rain, big flooding concerns

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:53 am

As expected by seeing recon the hurricane winds are all to the se of center. If the nhc track plays out verbatim we would see minimal ts winds I think. Unless winds wrap around more. The Western side is always weaker but it's really devoid of much wind at all.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:56 am

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 22 587ad410

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:57 am

amugs wrote:
jimv45 wrote:There is a chance the us in the Hudson Valley see more out of this then say Around NY City
south.

Yes you look to get deluge of rain, big flooding concerns
most of the area looks to get 4+ up to even 10.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:57 am

Was just on a video chat on youtube with Joe Cioffi and Bill Goodman, the NAM and HRRR are throwing all that rain into NJ from the ULL. That's the key player here now it seems. The HP to the east isn't going anywhere, so steering will be dependent on the ULL and the strength of the storm. All this uncertainty is so frustrating!

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:58 am

rb924119 wrote: 2021 Tropical Season - Page 22 587ad410

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.
and in English this means?? Lol
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Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:58 am

jmanley32 wrote:Hmon makes landfall in RI non event here if that played out. Even CT wouldn't see bad winds. Right now they are preparing for a potential loss of 60% power statewide. How u figure that I have no clue.

Told you, don’t expect the models to have a handle on this until it’s happening lol it’s pathetic, but sadly true.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:00 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hmon makes landfall in RI non event here if that played out. Even CT wouldn't see bad winds. Right now they are preparing for a potential loss of 60% power statewide. How u figure that I have no clue.

Told you, don’t expect the models to have a handle on this until it’s happening lol it’s pathetic, but sadly true.
oh I know I remember but it's sad and also dangerous cuz the landfall area will be key to who sees the hurricane winds. If he still has cane force winds on approach.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:00 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:00 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote: 2021 Tropical Season - Page 22 587ad410

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.
and in English this means?? Lol

If we start seeing more convection fire within those pink contours over the next few hours, then my discussion from earlier may have merit.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:02 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote: 2021 Tropical Season - Page 22 587ad410

Upper-level divergence is outlined in pink. Directly north west of our storm now and moving more in line with the mean shear instead of northward. Let’s see how this goes after the next few hours.
and in English this means?? Lol

If we start seeing more convection fire within those pink contours over the next few hours, then my discussion from earlier may have merit.
and in simpleton your still on with your 70 to 80% for area of landfall was the pt in that discussion with all the other stuff I kinda got the jist of. Do you see the cone potentially changing west again? Or is the east movement real?
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Post by rb924119 Sat Aug 21, 2021 11:04 am

billg315 wrote:rb, speak my name and I appear. Lol. Have had a bit of a hectic week (busy at work, had a piece of skin shaved off my back for testing - no worries here, doctor says likely nothing) so haven’t been on this as much as usual (and as people on here may know I have an anti-tropical bias anyway, lol) but I have been following along when I can.
My quick thoughts:
I’m not thinking the disorganization at the moment is a huge deal, as it is just now heading into the area where I think intensification/reorganization is most likely. However it does tell me there is a cap on how strong this can get before landfall. I think a weak Cat 1 is likely.
I think the Euro/GFS are too far east, but they’re not the best models to look at for this. Meanwhile the NAM and HRRR are similar and probably the better guides atm. My guess is this makes landfall in central LI and then moves into the HV region before sweeping away to NE. I think it ends up being more a rain event but central and eastern LI get some surge (especially with full moon) and wind damage.
Finally: Two weeks to college football and Pumpkin spice. :-)

Glad to hear all is well, my friend!! And nice post to return with! Haha

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