NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2021 Tropical Season

+35
Lubethan
sabamfa
Radz
clownloach
WeatherBob
dsix85
jimv45
Joe Snow
Scullybutcher
dolphins222
JackShephard
phil155
hyde345
essexcountypete
Nyi1058
nutleyblizzard
Zhukov1945
Grselig
Sanchize06
SoulSingMG
SENJsnowman
Dunnzoo
tomsriversnowstorm
dkodgis
rb924119
Vinnydula
aiannone
New Yorker 234
frank 638
billg315
weatherwatchermom
sroc4
Frank_Wx
jmanley32
amugs
39 posters

Page 39 of 43 Previous  1 ... 21 ... 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43  Next

Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by phil155 Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:02 pm

ugh


phil155

Posts : 140
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:18 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Holy crap.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Ea6b9310
WOWWW, even the south did not get past red yikes. This is potentially going to be devastating to flood prone areas and the news just said power outages are likely for coastal areas and parts of NJ. It is all about where this sets up which is going to be a nowcast.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:20 pm

Here is a closer up image, wow, I have never seen this, not that i remember anyways.


 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Ida_er10

tornado threat...

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Day2pr10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:39 pm

so ray (rb) I saw 18z GFS, the system that is now a depression goes NW and then north I see the HP, if the HP were 500 miles more west would been a direct hit on us, are you thinking the HP is much further west than shown?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by rb924119 Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:58 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:so ray (rb) I saw 18z GFS, the system that is now a depression goes NW and then north I see the HP, if the HP were 500 miles more west would been a direct hit on us, are you thinking the HP is much further west than shown?

Kind of lol it’s a very complex evolution that would have to occur in order for it to be a threat to us, but just because it’s complex, it doesn’t mean that it can’t/won’t happen.

Basically, I’m banking on the Atlantic ridge being undermodeled for two reasons:

1. The anomalously warm ocean waters should lead to its enhancement
2. The depression should readily achieve Major hurricane status, so that will work to add additional latent heat into the ridge and help to further build its western flank. This would start to lead to a positive feedback loop in tandem with (1). As the ridge builds westward in response to the hurricane moving westward, it should continue to steer the hurricane westward, thereby allowing the ridge to continue to build westward.

However, that’s the “easier” part of the forecast. The complexity comes in with how the pattern sets up over the eastern CONUS, and how the trough behaves. Basically, if you watch the entire loop of the hemispheric H5 anomalies, you’ll notice that there is discontinuous retrogression occurring. For example, the time-mean trough starts over Newfoundland, then shifts westward to be over the Northeast, then shifts westward to be over the Great Lakes. This fits the logical progression of the remnant Atlantic blocking, but it’s contained within an overall hemispheric and global pattern that supports ridging in the eastern CONUS.

This is where it gets tricky fast. How does that retrograding trough behave? Does it cut off and drift southward over east-central CONUS and allow the ridging to build over the top of it (anti-cyclonic wave break) and eventually link up with the Atlantic ridging building westward, as the trough/cutoff low decays? Or, do we see a decrease in the amplitude of the trough as the lead time decreases, and then see the main trough split, with one piece ejecting northeastward through northern New England/southern Canada, and the other slip back in response to additional energy being allowed to slip in the backside and continue the retrogression of the mean trough toward the central CONUS?

I can’t really offer concrete opinion on the evolutions that would follow yet, but my concern is with the second evolution IF it evolved that way. Because with the trough split, it should allow heights to build faster to the northwest of the hurricane, thereby increasing the time of westward movement (ala today’s 12z GEM). However, with that second piece hanging back, it would still allow for a window to come almost due north (similarly to Henri, though without the retrograde).

If the first option evolved, then it would be more of a threat for the Southeast.

This is all very preliminary musing on my end, though, as I’ve not yet had a real chance to sit and analyze. Thursday or Friday should offer me that opportunity, though I will try to dabble before then.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:22 pm

RB what is your take on tomorrows storm all quiet on here
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3016
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by rb924119 Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:33 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:RB what is your take on tomorrows storm all quiet on here

I’ve not followed it closely, so I can’t really offer too much other than what’s already been highlighted by our comrades haha looks like it’s a lose-lose no matter where you are: North of about 195 you get several inches of rain, and south of there you get less rain but an enhanced threat of severe thunderstorms.

Maybe somebody else can be a bit more specific for ya….?

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:54 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:so ray (rb) I saw 18z GFS, the system that is now a depression goes NW and then north I see the HP, if the HP were 500 miles more west would been a direct hit on us, are you thinking the HP is much further west than shown?

Kind of lol it’s a very complex evolution that would have to occur in order for it to be a threat to us, but just because it’s complex, it doesn’t mean that it can’t/won’t happen.

Basically, I’m banking on the Atlantic ridge being undermodeled for two reasons:

1. The anomalously warm ocean waters should lead to its enhancement
2. The depression should readily achieve Major hurricane status, so that will work to add additional latent heat into the ridge and help to further build its western flank. This would start to lead to a positive feedback loop in tandem with (1). As the ridge builds westward in response to the hurricane moving westward, it should continue to steer the hurricane westward, thereby allowing the ridge to continue to build westward.

However, that’s the “easier” part of the forecast. The complexity comes in with how the pattern sets up over the eastern CONUS, and how the trough behaves. Basically, if you watch the entire loop of the hemispheric H5 anomalies, you’ll notice that there is discontinuous retrogression occurring. For example, the time-mean trough starts over Newfoundland, then shifts westward to be over the Northeast, then shifts westward to be over the Great Lakes. This fits the logical progression of the remnant Atlantic blocking, but it’s contained within an overall hemispheric and global pattern that supports ridging in the eastern CONUS.

This is where it gets tricky fast. How does that retrograding trough behave? Does it cut off and drift southward over east-central CONUS and allow the ridging to build over the top of it (anti-cyclonic wave break) and eventually link up with the Atlantic ridging building westward, as the trough/cutoff low decays? Or, do we see a decrease in the amplitude of the trough as the lead time decreases, and then see the main trough split, with one piece ejecting northeastward through northern New England/southern Canada, and the other slip back in response to additional energy being allowed to slip in the backside and continue the retrogression of the mean trough toward the central CONUS?

I can’t really offer concrete opinion on the evolutions that would follow yet, but my concern is with the second evolution IF it evolved that way. Because with the trough split, it should allow heights to build faster to the northwest of the hurricane, thereby increasing the time of westward movement (ala today’s 12z GEM). However, with that second piece hanging back, it would still allow for a window to come almost due north (similarly to Henri, though without the retrograde).

If the first option evolved, then it would be more of a threat for the Southeast.

This is all very preliminary musing on my end, though, as I’ve not yet had a real chance to sit and analyze. Thursday or Friday should offer me that opportunity, though I will try to dabble before then.
interesting what little of that I understood, I see what CMC is doing, so are you thinking the storm stays further west than NW or NNW like the CMC? Will be interesting to follow the evolution you are discussing. Wouldn't that be the bees knees, hurricane henri, remnants of ida and a week later potential major hurricane threatening the EC may be even the area can the tropics get any more active?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:59 pm

Thanks was just curious....
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3016
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by rb924119 Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:08 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:so ray (rb) I saw 18z GFS, the system that is now a depression goes NW and then north I see the HP, if the HP were 500 miles more west would been a direct hit on us, are you thinking the HP is much further west than shown?

Kind of lol it’s a very complex evolution that would have to occur in order for it to be a threat to us, but just because it’s complex, it doesn’t mean that it can’t/won’t happen.

Basically, I’m banking on the Atlantic ridge being undermodeled for two reasons:

1. The anomalously warm ocean waters should lead to its enhancement
2. The depression should readily achieve Major hurricane status, so that will work to add additional latent heat into the ridge and help to further build its western flank. This would start to lead to a positive feedback loop in tandem with (1). As the ridge builds westward in response to the hurricane moving westward, it should continue to steer the hurricane westward, thereby allowing the ridge to continue to build westward.

However, that’s the “easier” part of the forecast. The complexity comes in with how the pattern sets up over the eastern CONUS, and how the trough behaves. Basically, if you watch the entire loop of the hemispheric H5 anomalies, you’ll notice that there is discontinuous retrogression occurring. For example, the time-mean trough starts over Newfoundland, then shifts westward to be over the Northeast, then shifts westward to be over the Great Lakes. This fits the logical progression of the remnant Atlantic blocking, but it’s contained within an overall hemispheric and global pattern that supports ridging in the eastern CONUS.

This is where it gets tricky fast. How does that retrograding trough behave? Does it cut off and drift southward over east-central CONUS and allow the ridging to build over the top of it (anti-cyclonic wave break) and eventually link up with the Atlantic ridging building westward, as the trough/cutoff low decays? Or, do we see a decrease in the amplitude of the trough as the lead time decreases, and then see the main trough split, with one piece ejecting northeastward through northern New England/southern Canada, and the other slip back in response to additional energy being allowed to slip in the backside and continue the retrogression of the mean trough toward the central CONUS?

I can’t really offer concrete opinion on the evolutions that would follow yet, but my concern is with the second evolution IF it evolved that way. Because with the trough split, it should allow heights to build faster to the northwest of the hurricane, thereby increasing the time of westward movement (ala today’s 12z GEM). However, with that second piece hanging back, it would still allow for a window to come almost due north (similarly to Henri, though without the retrograde).

If the first option evolved, then it would be more of a threat for the Southeast.

This is all very preliminary musing on my end, though, as I’ve not yet had a real chance to sit and analyze. Thursday or Friday should offer me that opportunity, though I will try to dabble before then.
interesting what little of that I understood, I see what CMC is doing, so are you thinking the storm stays further west than NW or NNW like the CMC?  Will be interesting to follow the evolution you are discussing. Wouldn't that be the bees knees, hurricane henri, remnants of ida and a week later potential major hurricane threatening the EC may be even the area can the tropics get any more active?

There’s obviously a third option, which is climatologically favored but last on my current list of possible outcomes, and that is the trough stays coherent over the eastern CONUS and the hurricane is lofted wide-right of land entirely haha but at the minimum, I do think we see interaction with at least some part of the North American continent, even if it’s eastern Nova Scotia lmaooo

But I’ll have a more definitive opinion over the next couple of days aha again, this is all high-level conjecture from me at this point.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5553
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:12 pm

We went into storm mode for Henri and this rain/ svr wx event w/ ida looks far worse and no storm mode?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:24 pm

The rain tomorrow looks to really train over PA before coming east giving them the majority of the epic flooding, 3km has some spots seeing 10-15 inches...Any shift east of the system will bring the heaviest access into the area, nws even says in their briefing that the setup of the main area is still shifting.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:05 am

DAYUMMM RGEM!!!

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Rgem_a11
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:59 am

1st little burst of heavy rain woke me up
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 3016
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 57
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:05 am

The overnight model runs shifted the heaviest axis of rain to our north and northwest. That said, it's still going to pour buckets at some point for everyone. But, the threat of severe flooding for NYC Metro is minimized slightly due to the latest shift.

NAM:

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Namconus_apcpn_neus_10

GFS:

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Gfs_apcpn_neus_7

We've dealt with 2-3" rainstorms plenty of times. It is when it gets to be 4-8"+ of rain - which is what parts of NY state will get - is when it becomes a big issue for NJ. We have saturated grounds though, so still be on the lookout for localized flooding. The areas of NJ that will be an issue is in the northern part, especially NW NJ.

You can tell from the current radar where all the heaviest rain is destined to go. All that heavy 'stuff' in PA is headed to CP land N&W of NYC.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Nerad25

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20054
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:59 am

Yeah I dunno frank the WPC still has the area under rare high flash flooding and a 3-6 to 6-10 inch rainfall. their axis of heaviest rain hasnt shifted much but includes area you are talking about, models have been back and forth on this for days, and I think the rain we see is when the part wraps in more from the soyuth with the potential for svr wx too. We will see what happens. Even NWS upped their totals from 3-45 to 3-6 with higher totals likely. And we are already getting pre-heaviest rainfall now some in quite heavy downpours.

Next we are looking at larry, let me tell you all my family members that have a storm named after them have been BAD, this is larry my father already slated to become a major cane, will be interesting to see how close he gets to the EC, models are showing pretty close and rb's analysis is interesting to say the least. We track!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by aiannone Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:03 am

New 12z HRRR bumped north
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Hrrr_a10
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4265
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by Zhukov1945 Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:12 am

@aiannone wrote:New 12z HRRR bumped north
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Hrrr_a10

Interestingly while the extended duration precip goes north, it has NJ getting absolutely hammered from around 7pm to 11 pm such that for most of us we make up the difference.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Hrrr_r10
Zhukov1945
Zhukov1945

Posts : 106
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton Township NJ

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:19 am

@Zhukov1945 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:New 12z HRRR bumped north
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Hrrr_a10

Interestingly while the extended duration precip goes north, it has NJ getting absolutely hammered from around 7pm to 11 pm such that for most of us we make up the difference.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Hrrr_r10
Thats exactly what I was talking about, although areas north see that huge area of rain I think we see what is shown in your map which will be fierce and intense moreso than a streadier longer duration rain north, again we will see. I am also concerned a bit about the tornado risk and svr storm risk, they pushed the slight and enhanced areas slightly north from yesterday, I think tornado watches go up at some point for some areas later. Either the models or right or they are wrong at this point 50/50.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:38 am

@aiannone wrote:New 12z HRRR bumped north
 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Hrrr_a10
no denying models have bumped north but it def wont take much of a shift to change things, I think we just have to wait and see. Any serious totals will be localized, though NWS said could be likely. They may change their tune as well as WPC if they agree with the SR models.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:42 am

A couple things to consider:

-The heaviest rain in NE NJ/NYC falls faster than some of the higher totals to the northwest and since our FFG is much more nail-biting in the NYC metro than say NEPA, big problems could occur even if we get “only” 3-4 inches in the area but it falls in shorter time (that’s looking like later this evening).

-Careful what we wish for; the further north the warm front goes and “less” rain we get, the greater the tornado risk becomes toward NNJ/NYC metro. The spin-up risk over SNJ is eye-popping to say the least.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Cf86a210
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by Zhukov1945 Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:46 am

13Z HRRR even more aggressive for NJ - just absolutely insane heavy rain for 5-7 hours starting around 5 pm. Dumps about 10" on Hunterdon county.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Hrrr_a10
Zhukov1945
Zhukov1945

Posts : 106
Reputation : 8
Join date : 2018-03-21
Location : Clinton Township NJ

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 01, 2021 11:02 am

This looks pretty bad (WPC rain map) as it stands, 3-6 with embedded 6-10...I agree with soul, either way we have issues its either super heavy rain (which I think we experience either way to some extent) and a potential increase in tornado threat if any more trends north.

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 9_1_2110
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18381
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by sroc4 Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:13 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:so ray (rb) I saw 18z GFS, the system that is now a depression goes NW and then north I see the HP, if the HP were 500 miles more west would been a direct hit on us, are you thinking the HP is much further west than shown?

Kind of lol it’s a very complex evolution that would have to occur in order for it to be a threat to us, but just because it’s complex, it doesn’t mean that it can’t/won’t happen.

Basically, I’m banking on the Atlantic ridge being undermodeled for two reasons:

1. The anomalously warm ocean waters should lead to its enhancement
2. The depression should readily achieve Major hurricane status, so that will work to add additional latent heat into the ridge and help to further build its western flank. This would start to lead to a positive feedback loop in tandem with (1). As the ridge builds westward in response to the hurricane moving westward, it should continue to steer the hurricane westward, thereby allowing the ridge to continue to build westward.

However, that’s the “easier” part of the forecast. The complexity comes in with how the pattern sets up over the eastern CONUS, and how the trough behaves. Basically, if you watch the entire loop of the hemispheric H5 anomalies, you’ll notice that there is discontinuous retrogression occurring. For example, the time-mean trough starts over Newfoundland, then shifts westward to be over the Northeast, then shifts westward to be over the Great Lakes. This fits the logical progression of the remnant Atlantic blocking, but it’s contained within an overall hemispheric and global pattern that supports ridging in the eastern CONUS.

This is where it gets tricky fast. How does that retrograding trough behave? Does it cut off and drift southward over east-central CONUS and allow the ridging to build over the top of it (anti-cyclonic wave break) and eventually link up with the Atlantic ridging building westward, as the trough/cutoff low decays? Or, do we see a decrease in the amplitude of the trough as the lead time decreases, and then see the main trough split, with one piece ejecting northeastward through northern New England/southern Canada, and the other slip back in response to additional energy being allowed to slip in the backside and continue the retrogression of the mean trough toward the central CONUS?

I can’t really offer concrete opinion on the evolutions that would follow yet, but my concern is with the second evolution IF it evolved that way. Because with the trough split, it should allow heights to build faster to the northwest of the hurricane, thereby increasing the time of westward movement (ala today’s 12z GEM). However, with that second piece hanging back, it would still allow for a window to come almost due north (similarly to Henri, though without the retrograde).

If the first option evolved, then it would be more of a threat for the Southeast.

This is all very preliminary musing on my end, though, as I’ve not yet had a real chance to sit and analyze. Thursday or Friday should offer me that opportunity, though I will try to dabble before then.

Hey Ray I have to throw my two cents into the ring here. With Larry forecast to gain intensity rather quickly, even up to a major By the end of the week the altitude at which will influence Larry's motion begin to increase. Looking at 300mb there is a very distinct northerly vector by the time Larry reaches approx 45-50W Long; whereas, beneath that at 500mb the vecotor still seems to be westerly. Also good ol' Coriolis forces come into play the stronger he gets too.

Combined with the timing of the various troughs propagating NA into the Atlantic just something else to factor when looking at "Larry Balls". Sorry Larry Balls was the nick name to a guy I used to hang out with back in my high school days. I digress

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6965
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:25 pm

Shocked

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 5a64e710
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

 2021 Tropical Season - Page 39 Empty Re: 2021 Tropical Season

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 39 of 43 Previous  1 ... 21 ... 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum